• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson and negative binomial Regression model

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Development of Evaluation Model for Black Spot Improvement Priorities by using Emperical Bayes Method (EB기법을 이용한 사고잦은 곳 개선사업 우선순위 판정기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Seong-Bong;Hwang, Bo-Hui;Seong, Nak-Mun;Lee, Seon-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2009
  • The safety management of a road network comprises four basic inter-related components:identification of sites(black spot) requiring safety investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for potential treatment candidates, and prioritization of treatments given limited budgets(Persaud, 2001). Identification process of selecting black spot is very important for efficient investigation of sites. In this study, the accident prediction model for EB method was developed by using accident data and geometric conditions of black spots selected from four-leg signalized intersections in In-cheon City for three years (2004-2006). In addition, by comparing the rank nomination technique using EB method to that by using accident counts, we managed to show the problems which the existing method have and the necessity for developing rational prediction model. As a result, in terms of total number of accidents, both the counts predicted by existing non-linear regression model and that by EB method have high good of fitness, but EB method, considering both the accident counts by sites and total number of accident, has better good of fitness than non-linear poison model. According to the result of the comparison of ranks nominated for treatment between two methods, the rank for treatment of almost sites does not change but SeoHae intersection and a few other intersections have significant changes in their rank. This shows that, with the technique proposed in the study, the RTM problem caused by using real accident counts can be overcome.

A Study on the Influence of Urban Environment on the Generation of Thermal Diseases (도시 환경이 온열질환 발생에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Su-Mi;Kweon, Ihl;Kim, Yong-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2019
  • The deterioration of the urban heat environment due to climate change and the occurrence of heat-related diseases have emerged as one of the major social problems. This has led to more research on climate change, including heat waves, but it is mainly focused on climate factors. However, the urban heat island phenomenon accelerates the summer heat wave, and the increasing trend of heat-related patients in urban areas suggests the impact of the city's environment. Thus, this study analyzed the effects of physical and social characteristics of urban areas on heat-related patients in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The analysis showed that the ratio of the total area of residential, commercial and industrial facilities, the main source of heat energy locality, among the land use statuses, was not statistically significant, but the road area and the green area were found to have a positive and negative The population density and the percentage of people aged 65 or older, the percentage of people living alone and the proportion of people receiving basic living were all shown to be significant, with only the ratio of elderly living alone and the ratio of population density having negative effects. The results of the study can be used to develop urban policy alternatives related to local warming patients.

Characteristics of Geometric Conditions Affecting Freeway Traffic Safety at Nighttime, Sunrise, and Sunset (야간 및 일출몰 시간대 교통안전에 영향을 미치는 고속도로 기하구조 특성분석)

  • Hong, Sung-Min;Kim, Joon-Ki;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • Driver's capability of identifying the change in freeway alignments and environments is one of important factors associated with traffic safety on freeways. In particular, driver's visibility and recognition capability are highly dependent on the altitude of the sun by sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of geometric conditions affecting crash occurrences at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. Poisson and negative binomial regressions were adopted to predict freeway crash frequency in this study. Freeway crash data during 2007~2010 were used for developing the crash frequency models. A set of variables representing the characteristics of geometric conditions were identified as significant ones affecting crash occurrences. The results of this study would be useful in deriving effective countermeasures for preventing traffic crashes that mainly occur at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime on freeways.

Development of the Expected Safety Performance Models for Rural Highway Segments (지방부 국도의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Taek;Kim, Do-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2012
  • The past researches on roadway segment safety estimation focused on intersections, which are the primary traffic accident regions. The past researches on roadway segments, However, analyzed the effects of certain factors on the traffic accident occurrence rate by organizing the individual geometric structures of the roads, and there is still a dearth of researches on the development of a traffic accident estimation model for rural roadway segments. Therefore, this research focused on rural two-lane and multilane roadway segments and developed traffic accident estimation models through the application of statistical techniques. This is required to explain such high frequency of zero counts in the traffic accident data. In this research, it was found that the Hurdle model is more suitable than the Poisson or negative binomial-regression model for explaining the excess zeros case. In addition, main variables were chosen to estimate their effects on traffic accident occurrence at rural roadway segments, and the safety at such rural roadway segments was estimated. In this research, it was assumed that there are different factors that affect the safety at two-way lane and multilane roadway segments, and a traffic accident estimation model was developed by dividing the two-way lane and multilane roadway segments.