• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.143-169
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• 2022

This study investigates the effect of economic factors on immigration using the gravity model of immigration. Cross-sectional regression and panel data analyses are conducted from 2000 to 2019 using the OECD International Migration Database, which consists of 36 destination countries and 201 countries of origin. The Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method, which can effectively correct potential biased estimates caused by zeros in the immigration data, is used for estimation. The results indicate that the economic factors strengthened after the global financial crisis. Additionally, this effect varies depending on the type of immigration (the income level of origin country). The gravity model applied to immigration performs reasonably well, but it is necessary to consider the country-specific and time-varying characteristics.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.85-96
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to find out the determinants of export in Korean fishery products. For the analysis, laver and tuna, which account for almost half of seafood exports, were selected, and a gravity model widely used in trade analysis was applied. As explanatory variables, GDP, number of overseas Koreans, exchange rate, FTA, and WTO were applied, and fixed effect terms were included to take into account multilateral resistance that hinders trade. The analysis period is from 2000 to 2018, and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method was applied to solve the problem of zero observation and heteroscedasticity inherent in trade data. As a result of the analysis, GDP was found to have a significant positive effect on both laver and tuna. The number of overseas Koreans was significant in canned tuna exports, but not in laver and the other tuna products. As the exchange rate increased, the export of laver and tuna for sashimi increased. The impacts of the FTA were confirmed in the exports of dried laver and raw tuna, which supports the results of the previous study. WTO was not significant for laver and tuna. Based on these results, it is necessary to find a way to make good use of the FTA to expand exports of seafood.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.133-145
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• 1995

This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distribution from field data for repairable products with multiple modes of failure, and is an extension of Bai et al.(1995). The log linear function is considered as a model for describing the relation between failure time of a product and covariates. Using the nonhomogeneous poisson process, general methods for obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) for the parameters are outlined and specific formulas for Weibull distribution are obtained. Effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs are investigated. Extension to case-cohort design is also considered.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.83-107
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• 2014

This paper studies the effects of economic development and cultural proximity as common determinants of trade in cultural goods in a dynamic preference selection model. For the empirical analysis, this paper utilizes the gravity framework with importer fixed effects and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators. This paper applies the model to Korean export of broadcasting contents to Asian countries. The relative economic development of the export country and the market size of the import country are important determinants of cultural trade, the results of which are generally consistent with traditional goods trade. However, the distance variable does not show much significance, reflecting the unique characteristics of trade in cultural goods.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.447-467
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• 2016

The RTAs with trade facilitation provisions have been expected to generate a larger net trade-creating effect and complement the discriminatory feature of RTAs but have yet to be empirically proven. Recognizing the limitations of existing studies, we conducted a quantitative analysis on the effects of RTAs with and without trade facilitation provisions on both intra- and extra-bloc trade by using a modified gravity equation. We applied the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation with time varying exporter and importer fixed effect method to panel data consisting of 45,770 country pairs covering 170 countries for 2000-2010. We found that the trade facilitation provisions in existing RTAs are non-discriminatory by generating more intra- and extra-bloc trade in general. In particular, we found that the trade effects of RTAs in the APEC region are much stronger than the general case covering all RTAs in the world. In addition, as we control the trade effect of a country's trade facilitation, which is ranked by the World Bank's logistic performance index, RTAs consisting of trade facilitation provisions are discriminatory for trade in final goods and non-discriminatory for trade in intermediate goods. Overall, we endeavor to "explain," instead of "hypothesizing," why most of the recent RTAs contain trade facilitation provisions, especially in light of the deepening regional interdependence through trade in parts and components under global value chains and support the necessity of multilateralizing RTAs by implementing non-discriminatory trade facilitation provisions.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.145-155
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• 2021

This study examines the export competitiveness of four major natural rubber exporters in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region and investigates the factors affecting bilateral natural rubber export. This study utilized the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) to measure export competitiveness. Next, this study employed the gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation to analyze the factors affecting bilateral export from the four major natural rubber exporters to 46 countries in the region. The analysis is conducted by using annual data from 2001 till 2018. The findings showed that all four major exporters maintained their export competitiveness. Indonesia and Vietnam notably exhibited increasing trends in the early 2000s. Besides, the market share for Malaysia and Vietnam have increased from 2013 to 2015 with the BRI implementation in 2013. In addition, this study discovered that non-tariff measures (NTM) have a positive and significant impact on the bilateral export of natural rubber. The overall findings strongly indicate that the natural rubber export has increased post BRI announcement. The outcome highlighted the benefits of BRI implementation on the natural rubber export. This study is the first attempt to apply the gravity model on the natural rubber exports within the BRI region.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.313-324
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• 2022

We investigate the impacts of tariff, tariff-rate quota, conformity assessment, and traceability requirements set by the rice importers using panel data of 17 rice exporters exporting to 119 countries in two years 2015 and 2018, using both Ordinary least square (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPLM) methods. Results from our gravity models strongly indicate that tariff and tariff rate quota remain significantly detrimental to the world's rice exporters because these measures place downward pressure on the rice exporters' prices and the importers' import quantity, creating barriers to market participation. Our study also provides strong evidence about the role of origin certificates in allowing rice exporters to gain access to foreign markets. Meanwhile, regulatory standards such as traceability requirements and logistical and distributional requirements imposed by the rice importers are found to be major obstacles to rice importation from less-developed countries. Our study provides insights into tariff and non-tariff barriers existing in the global rice market, which is likely to assist policymakers operating in developing countries to help shape their policies and bolster rice competitiveness.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.233-254
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• 2022

Although there is growing literature evidence of linkages between global value chains (GVCs) and foreign direct investment (FDI), the results are mixed and ambiguous by geographic dimension, time period and sectoral scope. Moreover, bilateral approaches on these connections have been rarely analyzed. In this context, we investigate the effect of bilateral greenfield FDI and cross-border M&A on GVC linkages between host countries and source countries. We match three-year averages of bilateral FDI and UNCTAD-Eora GVC value-added data from 2005 to 2019 between 37 OECD sources and 176 host countries (37 OECD versus 139 non-OECD countries). In the structural gravity model, the empirical specification includes bilateral and country-period fixed effects and uses a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. We find that greenfield and M&A FDI promote forward and backward GVC linkage for all sectors between OECD countries, whereas greenfield FDI promotes backward GVC linkage between OECD and non-OECD countries. In addition, the results indicate that the degree of influence of GVCs by FDI flows is greater for forward GVC than backward GVC among OECD countries.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.25-45
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• 2018

This paper estimates the export losses of the Korean domestic automobile industry due to US trade pressure and its economic ripple effects. Using the HS 6 digit tariff and export data from 2010 to 2017, this paper estimates the tariff elasticity of Korea's US automobile exports against a US tariff increase by applying the Poisson Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method. After estimating Korea's export losses to the US in three trade pressure scenarios, we estimate its impact on Korean domestic production, value-added and job creation by applying the tariff impact accumulation model based on the industry input-output analysis. Empirical results show that the impact of 25% global tariff by the US on the Korean domestic economy is estimated to result in $30.8 billion in export losses for the five years from 2019 to 2023, about 300 thousand job losses, 88.0 trillion in production inducement losses, and 24.0 trillion in value-added inducement losses. The impacts of withdrawal of the automobile tariff concession are estimated at $4.27 billion export losses and 41.7 thousand job losses. A 15% tariff rate on automobile parts for 3 years is estimated to result in $1.93 billion export losses and 18.7 thousand job losses.