• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5D
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• pp.453-459
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• 2010

In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 2016

Recently, the studies about rock physics model (RPM) in shale reservoir are widely performed. In shale reservoir, the degree of the maturity can be estimated by kerogen and GOR (Gas-Oil Ratio). The researches on the rock physics model of shale reservoir with the amount of kerogen have been actively carried out but not with GOR. Thus, in this study, we analyzed the changes in seismic velocity and density, and AVO (Amplitude Variation with Offset) response depending on changes in GOR and the amount of kerogen. Since the shale consists of plate-like particles, it has vertical transverse isotropy (VTI). Therefore we estimated the seismic velocity and density by using Backus averaging method and analyzed AVO responses based on these estimated properties. The results of analysis showed that the changes in the velocity with the GOR variation are small but the velocity changes with the variation in kerogen amount are relatively larger. In case, GOR 180 (Litre/Litre) which is boundary between heavy oil and light oil, when volume fraction of kerogen increased from 5% to 35%, the P-wave velocity normal to the layering increased 51%. That is, it helps estimating maturity of kerogen through the velocity. Meanwhile, when rates of oil-gas mixture are large, the effect of GOR variation on the velocity change became larger. In case volume fraction of kerogen is 5%, the P-wave velocity normal to the layering was estimated $1.46km/s^2$ in heavy oil (GOR 40) but $1.36km/s^2$ in light oil (GOR 300). The AVO responses analysis showed class 4 regardless of the GOR and amount of kerogen because variation of poisson's ratio is small. Therefore, shale reservoir has possibility to have class 4.