• 대기
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.111-120
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• 2008

This study presents a change-point in the 30 years (1976-2005) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea using Bayesian approach. The criterion for the heavy precipitation used in this study is 80 mm/day. Using non-informative priors, the exact Bayes estimators of parameters and unknown change-point are obtained. Also, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals for the mean differences between before and after the change-point are examined. The results show that a single change-point in the precipitation intensity and the heavy precipitation characteristics has occurred around 1996. As the results, the precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation characteristics have clearly increased after the change-point. However, the annual precipitation amount and days show a statistically insignificant single change-point model. These results are consistent with earlier works based on a simple linear regression model.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 1998

This paper alms to estimate the change point of the precipitation in Pusan area using the several statistical approaches. The data concerning rainfall are extracted from the annual climatological report and monthly weather report issued by the Korean Meteorological Administration. The average annual precipitation at Pusan is 1471.6 mm, with a standard deviation of 406.0 mm, less than the normal(1486.0 mm). The trend of the annual precipitation is continuously decreasing after 1991 as a change point. And the statistical tests such as t-test and Wilcoxon rank sum test reveals that the average annual precipitation of after 1991 is less than that of before 1991 at 10% significance level. And the mean gnu성 precipitation In Kyongnam districts is also continuously decreasing after 1991 same as Pusan.

• 대기
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.199-211
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• 2009

In this paper, we examine the multiple change-point and change pattern in the 54 years (1954-2007) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea. A Bayesian approach is used for detecting of mean and/or variance changes in a sequence of independent univariate normal observations. Using non-informative priors for the parameters, the Bayesian model selection is performed by the posterior probability through the intrinsic Bayes factor of Berger and Pericchi (1996). To investigate the significance of the changes in the precipitation characteristics between before and after the change-point, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals are examined. The results showed that no significant changes have occurred in the annual precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) and the heavy precipitation intensity. On the other hand, a statistically significant single change has occurred around 1996 or 1997 in the heavy precipitation days and amount. The heavy precipitation amount and days have increased after the change-point but no changes in the variances.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.233-250
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• 2013

강수지표의 변화시점(change point) 분석을 이용하여 기후의 특성이 점진적 또는 급진적으로 변화하는지에 대하여 조사하였다. 강수지표를 크게 총량(amount), 극치(extremes)와 빈도(frequency)로 구분하였고, 각각의 지수를 RIA(Rainfall Index for Amount), RIE(Rainfall Index for Extremes)와 RIF(Rainfall Index for Frequency)로 정의하였다. 계산된 강수지표의 시간에 따른 변화를 알아보기 위하여 BCP(Bayesian Change Point)를 적용하였다. 분석 결과, 남한지역의 강수지표는 연 강우일수와 200년 빈도 확률 강수량을 제외하고는 모두 증가 하는 것으로 확인되었다. RIA는 울릉도 지점에서 변화지점의 유의성에 대해 매우 명확한 모습을 보였고 RIE는 제천, 서귀포와 구미 등에서 비교적 유의한 결과가 확인되었다. 또한, 1990년대 이후에 변동지점의 개수가 증가하고 있으며, 변동지점의 횡적인 폭 또한 비교적 넓어지고 있었다. 이러한 사실에 근거하여 볼 때 강수에 대한 정상성 가정에 대한 재고가 필요하리라 판단되었다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제5권6호
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• pp.749-755
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• 1996

In order to grasp a characterization of low boiling point chlorinated organic compounds, this study which were carried out at the 8 stations for precipitation samples in the Pusan area during the period from February to September 1995. As a result, low boiling chlorinated organic compounds were estimated that it was dissolved by a portion of precipitation, and it be able to shift at the surface of the each. Concentration of low boiling point chlorinated organic compounds in precipitation are increased with increase of temperature, and estimated that air pollution compounds of as a rule in atmosphere.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권2B호
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• pp.225-236
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• 2008

수공구조물의 설계를 위한 확률강우량의 산정방법은 크게 지점빈도해석과 지역빈도해석으로 구분된다. 일반적으로 확률강우량은 대상유역에 위치하는 강우관측소에서 관측된 강우량자료를 지점빈도해석으로 추정하게 된다. 지점빈도해석을 통한 확률강우량을 산정하기 위해서는 충분한 기간 동안의 관측된 강우량자료의 확보가 필수적이라 할 수 있으나 관측자료의 부족으로 인해 매개변수의 편의가 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 부족한 강우자료를 보완하고 안정적인 확률강우량을 산정하기 위한 방안으로 지역빈도해석이 추천되어지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라 강우관측소의 위치 및 시간강우량 특성을 이용한 군집분석을 수행하여 강우관측소를 군집화 하였다. 군집화 된 강우관측소를 대상으로 L-moment 법을 통해 산정한 매개변수를 이용하여 각각의 지역별로 불일치성 및 이질성 검정을 통한 지역구분을 수행하여 우리나라 강우관측소를 6개 지역으로 구분하였다. 구분된 지역별로 L-moment 법, 지수홍수법 및 변동핵밀도함수를 적용한 지역빈도해석을 수행하여 각각 확률강우량을 산정하여 비교하였다. 분석결과에서 변동핵밀도함수를 이용한 지역빈도해석은 다른 기법에서 적합한 확률분포형 결정이 어려운 경우 등에 충분히 활용할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.457-467
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• 2019

Because non-point source pollution is very closely related to hydrological characteristics, its importance is highly emphasized nowadays along with accelerating climate change. Especially for Korea, the non-point source pollution and its control are entirely depending on runoff, precipitation, drainage, land use or development, based on geographical and topographical reasons of Korea. Many studies reported the physical (e.g., apparatus- and natural-type facilities, etc.) and chemical methods (e.g., organic and inorganic coagulants, etc.) of controling non-point pollutant source pollution, however, those are needed to be reconsidered along with climate change causing the unexpected patterns and amounts of precipitation and strengthen complexity of social community. The objectives of this study are to assess recent situations of non-point source pollution in Korea and its control means and to introduce possible effective ways of non-point source pollution against climate change in near future.

• 열처리공학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.138-143
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• 1993

Effects of aging treatment on the microstructural evolution of a rapidly solidified Al-Li-Cu alloy were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and transmission electron microscopy(TEM). It was found that the precipitation sequence was: supersaturated solid solution ${\alpha}^{\prime}$ ${\rightarrow}$ metastable ${\delta}^{\prime}$ + stable precipitate $T_1$ ${\rightarrow}$ stable precipitates ${\delta}+T_1$. Two exothermic and two endothermic peaks are detected by DSC analysis. The two exothermic and endothermic peaks corresponded to ${\delta}^{\prime}$ and ${\delta}+T_1$ precipitation and dissolution reactions respectively. The enthalpy of ${\delta}^{\prime}$ precipitation decreased with increasing of aging temperature and time until the finishing point of precipitation. The activation energy for precipitation of ${\delta}^{\prime}$ was measured as 80KJ/mol and the energy for dissolution was 93KJ/mol. These values arc higher than those of AI-Li binary alloy. Peak hardness value (Hv 170) was obtamed at $210^{\circ}C$ for 1hr aging treatment which coincided with finishing point of ${\delta}^{\prime}$ precipitation.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전기물성ㆍ응용부문C
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.34-38
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• 1999

In order to develop a thin type ESP(Electrostatic Precipitator) for high efficient air-conditioner with low concentration of ozone generation, collecting electrode spacing should be narrower than that from Deutsch formula and minimizes discharge current in ionizer. In this paper, the effect of applied voltage on the precipitation efficiency and ozone concentration of scroll type ESP was studied. As a result, precipitation efficiency(one pass) was improved by about 30[%] from increment of collector voltage(3.5[㎸]). Precipitation efficiency was increased with increasing ionizer voltage. And after some point, the efficiency was saturated. At the point, voltage and ionizer current was 5.2[㎸] and 95$[\muA]$ per meter respectively. At these applied voltage conditions, ozone concentration was saturated about 0.01[ppm] after 3 hours in 23$[m^3]$ closed room test.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.44-53
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• 1999

The statistical characteristics of the factors related to the daily rainfall prediction model are analyzed . Records of daily precipitation, mean air temperature, relative humidity , dew-point temperature and air pressure from 1973∼1998 at 8 meteorological sttions in south-western part of Korea were used. 1. Serial correlatino of daily precipitaiton was significant with the lag less than 1 day. But , that of other variables were large enough until 10 day lag. 2. Crosscorrelation of air temperature, relative humidity , dew-point temperature showed similar distribution wiht the basin contrours and the others were different. 3. There were significant correlation between the meteorological variables and precipitation preceded more than 2 days. 4. Daily preciption of each station were treated as a truncated continuous random variable and the annual periodic components, mean and standard deviation were estimated for each day. 5. All of the results could be considered to select the input variables of regression model or neural network model for the prediction of daily precipitation and to construct the stochastic model of daily precipitation.