• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.82-91
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• 2022

In this paper, time series prediction method of photovoltaic power is introduced using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). In order to obtain the best fitting model by a time series method in the absence of an environmental sensor, this research was used data below 50% of cloud cover. Three samples were extracted by time intervals from the raw data. After that, the best fitting models were derived from mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) with the minimum akaike information criterion (AIC) or beysian information criterion (BIC). They are SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,2,2)14, SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,2,2)28, SARIMA (2,0,3)(1,2,2)55. Generally parameter of model derived from BIC was lower than AIC. SARIMA (2,0,3)(1,2,2)55, unlike other models, was drawn by AIC. And the performance of models obtained by SARIMA was compared. MAPE value was affected by the seasonal period of the sample. It is estimated that long seasonal period samples include atmosphere irregularity. Consequently using 1 hour or 30 minutes interval sample is able to be helpful for prediction accuracy improvement.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.24 no.9
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• pp.1251-1260
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• 2021

This paper discusses missing data processing using simple moving average (SMA) and kalman filter. Also SMA and kalman predictive value are made a comparative study. Time series analysis is a generally method to deals with time series data in photovoltaic field. Photovoltaic system records data irregularly whenever the power value changes. Irregularly recorded data must be transferred into a consistent format to get accurate results. Missing data results from the process having same intervals. For the reason, it was imputed using SMA and kalman filter. The kalman filter has better performance to observed data than SMA. SMA graph is stepped line graph and kalman filter graph is a smoothing line graph. MAPE of SMA prediction is 0.00737%, MAPE of kalman prediction is 0.00078%. But time complexity of SMA is O(N) and time complexity of kalman filter is O(D²) about D-dimensional object. Accordingly we suggest that you pick the best way considering computational power.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

The GWNU (Gangnung-Wonju national university) solar radiation model was developed with radiative transfer theory by Iqbal and it is applied the NREL (National Research Energy Laboratory). Input data were collected and accomplished from the model prediction data from RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilated Prediction Model), satellite data and ground observations. And GWNU solar model calculates not only horizontal surface but also complicated terrain surface. Also, We collected the statistical data related on photovoltaic power generation of the Korean Peninsula and analyzed about photovoltaic power efficiency of the Gangwon region. Finally, the solar energy resource and photovoltaic generation possibility map established up with 4 km, 1 km and 180 m resolution on Gangwon region based on actual equipment from Shinan solar plant,statistical data for photovoltaic and complicated topographical effect.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1504-1514
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to compare the suitability of a non-parametric and 3 parametric distributions in the characterization of prediction intervals of photovoltaic power forecasts with high confidence levels. The prediction intervals of the forecasts are calculated using a method based on recent past data similar to the target forecast input data, and on a distribution assumption for the forecast error. To compare the suitability of the distributions, prediction intervals were calculated using the proposed method and each of the 4 distributions. The calculations were done for one year of day-ahead forecasts of hourly power generation of 432 PV systems. The systems have different sizes and specifications, and are installed in different locations in Japan. The results show that, in general, the non-parametric distribution assumption for the forecast error yielded the best prediction intervals. For example, with a confidence level of 85% the use of the non-parametric distribution assumption yielded a median annual forecast error coverage of 86.9%. This result was close to the one obtained with the Laplacian distribution assumption (87.8% of coverage for the same confidence level). Contrasting with that, using a Gaussian and Hyperbolic distributions yielded median annual forecast error coverage of 89.5% and 90.5%.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.5 no.10
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• pp.353-360
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• 2016

Recently, solar photovoltaic(PV) power generation which generates electrical power from solar panels composed of multiple solar cells, showed the most prominent growth in the renewable energy sector worldwide. However, in spite of increased demand and need for a photovoltaic power generation, it is difficult to early detect defects of solar panels and equipments due to wide and irregular distribution of power generation. In this paper, we choose an optimal machine learning algorithm for estimating the generation amount of solar power by considering several panel information and climate information and develop a defect detection system by using the chosen algorithm generation. Also we apply the algorithm to a domestic solar photovoltaic power plant as a case study.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.182-187
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• 2018

In this study, 20.8% of a p-type Si bifacial solar cell was used to develop a photovoltaic (PV) module to obtain the maximum power under a limited installation area. The transparent back sheet material was replaced during fabrication with a white one, which is opaque in commercial products. This is very beneficial for the generation of more electricity, owing to the additional power generation via absorption of light from the rear side. A new model is suggested herein to predict the power of the bifacial PV module by considering the backside reflections from the roof and/or environment. This model considers not only the frontside reflection, but also the nonuniformity of the backside light sources. Theoretical predictions were compared to experimental data to prove the validity of this model, the error range for which ranged from 0.32% to 8.49%. Especially, under $700W/m^2$, the error rate was as low as 2.25%. This work could provide theoretical and experimental bases for application to a distributed and microgrid network.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1874-1885
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• 2018

The customer side operation is getting more complex in a smart grid environment because of the adoption of renewable resources. In performing energy management planning or scheduling, it is essential to forecast non-controllable resources accurately and robustly. The PV system is one of the common renewable energy resources in customer side. Its output depends on weather and physical characteristics of the PV system. Thus, weather information is essential to predict the amount of PV system output. However, weather forecast usually does not include enough solar irradiation information. In this study, a PV system power output prediction model (PPM) under limited weather information is proposed. In the proposed model, meteorological radiation model (MRM) is used to improve cloud cover radiation model (CRM) to consider the seasonal effect of the target region. The results of the proposed model are compared to the result of the conventional CRM prediction method on the PV generation obtained from a field test site. With the PPM, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are improved by 23.43% and 33.76%, respectively, compared to CRM for all days; while in clear days, they are improved by 53.36% and 62.90%, respectively.

• Current Photovoltaic Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.33-37
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• 2017

Today, photovoltaic power generation mostly uses Si crystalline solar cell modules. The most vulnerable part of the Si solar cell module is that the power generation decreases due to the temperature rise. But, it is widely used because of low installation cost. In the solar market, where Si crystalline solar cell modules are widely used. The CPV (Concentrated Photovoltaic) module appeared in the solar market. The CPV module reduces the manufacturing cost of the solar cell by using non-Si in the solar cell. Also, there is an advantage that a rise in temperature does not cause a drop in power generation. But this requires high technology to install and has a disadvantage that the initial installation cost is expensive compared to normal Si solar cell module. So that we built a testbed to see these characteristics. The testbed was used to measure the amount of power generation in a long-term outdoor environment and compared with the general Si solar cell module.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.591-596
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• 2012

Recently, the efficient management system for photovoltaic power plants has been required due to the continuously increasing construction of photovoltaic power plants. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based intelligent management system for many photovoltaic power plants. The proposed system stores the measured data of power plants using Hadoop HBase which is a column-oriented database, and processes the calculations of performance, efficiency, and prediction the amount of power generation by parallel processing based on Map-Reduce model. And, Web-based data visualization module allows the administrator to provide information in various forms.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.161-166
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• 2021

To prevent accidents caused by changes in the surrounding environment or other factors, various protection facilities are installed at the photovoltaic connection module. The main causes of fire are sparks due to foreign substances inside the photovoltaic connection module through high temperature rise and dew condensation in the photovoltaic connection module, and fire due to heat from the power diode. The proposed method can predict the fire by measuring flame, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, temperature, humidity, input voltage, and current on the photovoltaic connection module, and when the fire conditions are reached, fire alarm and power off can be sent to managers and users in real time to prevent fire in advance.