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VKOSPI Forecasting and Option Trading Application Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 VKOSPI 일 중 변화 예측과 실제 옵션 매매에의 적용)

  • Ra, Yun Seon;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.177-192
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    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

An Analysis of IT Trends Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 활용한 IT 트렌드 분석)

  • Yi, Jin Baek;Lee, Choong Kwon;Cha, Kyung Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2015
  • Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

Learning from the USA's Single Emergency Number 911: Policy Implications for Korea (미국 긴급번호 911 운영시스템에 관한 연구: 긴급번호 실질적 통합을 위한 정책 시사점 제시 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hak-Kyong;Lee, Sung-Yong
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.43
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    • pp.67-97
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    • 2015
  • In Korea, a single emergency number, such as 911 of the USA and 999 of the UK, does not exist. This issue became highly controversial, when the Sewol Ferry Sinking disaster occurred last year. So, the Korean government has planned to adopt a single emergency number, integrating 112 of the Police, 119 of the Fire and Ambulance, 122 of the Korean Coast Guard, and many other emergency numbers. However, the integration plan recently proposed by the Ministry of Public Safety Security seems to be, what is called, a "partial integration model" which repeals the 122 number, but still maintains 112, 119, and 110 respectively. In this context, the study looks into USA's (diverse) 911 operating system, and subsequently tries to draw general features or characteristics. Further, the research attempts to derive policy implication from the general features. If the proposed partial integration model reflects the policy implications, the model can virtually operate like the 911 system -i.e. a single emergency number system - creating inter-operability between responding agencies such as police, fire, and ambulance, even though it is not a perfect integration model. The features drawn are (1) integration of emergency call-taking, (2) functional separation of call-taking and dispatching, (3) integration of physical facilities for call-taking and dispatching, and (4) professional call-takers and dispatchers. Moreover, the policy implications derived from the characteristics are (1) a user-friendly system - fast but accurate responses, (2) integrated responses to accidents, (3) professional call-taking and dispatching & objective and comprehensive risk assessment, and finally (4) active organizational learning in emergency call centers. Considering the policy implications, the following suggestions need to be applied to the current proposed plan: 1. Emergency services' systems should be tightly linked and connected in a systemic way so that they can communicate and exchange intelligence with one another. 2. Public safety answering points (call centers) of each emergency service should share their education and training modules, manuals, etc. Common training and manuals are also needed for inter-operability. 3. Personal management to enable-long term service in public safety answering points (call centers) should be established as one of the ways to promote professionalism.

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Survey of Hygienic Condition and Management of Meat Markets in Seoul and Gyeong-Gi Area, Korea - HACCP-certified and Non Certified - (서울 및 경기지역 식육판매업소의 위생관리 실태분석 - HACCP 지정업소와 미지정업소 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Joo-Yeon;Paik, Jin-Kyoung;Hwang, Hye-Sun;Lee, Joo-Eun;Shin, Weon-Sun;Kim, Hyoun-Wook;Paik, Hyun-Dong;Hong, Wan-Soo
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.336-344
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    • 2010
  • Considering the increasing trends of the consumption of livestock products in Korea, proper hygienic management and policies for ensuring their safety to protect public health and strengthen consumer confidence are demanded. It is particularly important to manage the livestock distribution processes to provide safe meat and meat products. This study was conducted to examine factors related to the hygiene management of livestock products and to check out the condition of hygienic management in meat markets. To accomplish this, 156 meat markets divided into HACCP-certified and non certified and evaluated for five factors, which received the following scores: facility and equipment management (1.00/2.0 points, 50.0%), storage and transport management (1.93/2.0 points, 96.5%), work place management (0.76/2.0 points, 38.0%), personal hygiene management (0.75/2.0 points, 37.5%), and inspection management (0.22/2.0 points, 11.0%). The results revealed that the scores of HACCP-certified meat markets were significantly higher than those of the non certified markets (p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001). These findings suggest that meat markets that are not HACCP-certified must improve hygienic management conditions and educate their employees to improve the safety of livestock products during distribution.

A Study on the Sensitivity of Human Rights and the Advocacy Activities of Korean Occupational Therapists (국내 작업치료사의 인권감수성이 옹호활동에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ji-Man;Hong, Ki-Hoon;Lee, Chun-Yeop;Kim, Hee-Jung
    • The Journal of Korean society of community based occupational therapy
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The Human Rights constitute one of the basic pillars of every work where persons are involved, such is the case of the occupational therapy field. Methods : In this study we investigate the human rights sensitivity and the advocacy activities of occupational therapists. The differences according to their characteristics, the relationship and the impact of the human rights sensitivity are examined and presented. Making use of online surveys 116 subjects participated in the study. Results : The measured average of human right sensitivity is 69.00 ± 17.67 point, being them distributed according to the following subcategories: to the perception of the situation corresponds 23.25±5.62 points, to the perception of the consequences 22.75±6.54 points and for the perception of the responsibility 23±6.54 points. In all the cases have been taken in account the equal rights, the right to education in disables, the right to pursue the happiness of the elderly, the right of the disables to have personal freedom, the privacy rights and the privacy rights for mental illness people. According to the working area the Human Right sensitiveness is higher in Seoul than in the Gyeongsang province meanwhile the advocacy activities is higher in Seoul and in Gyeonggi province than in Gyeongsang province. Depending of the type of service, general hospitals and rehabilitation/nursing hospitals showed higher human rights sensitivity than other service organizations According to the working field, occupational therapy group focused in elderly showed higher Human Right sensitivity than other fields. Professionals belonging groups of clinical experience from 3 to 5 years and from 6 to 10 years showed higher advocacy activities than professionals with more than 11 years of experience. A positive correlation was showed between the human rights sensitivity and the advocacy activities. For this situation, the human rights sensitiveness was divided in sub-categories in perception of the situation, perception of the consequences and perception of the responsibility. As showed by the result of multiple regression analyses the advocacy activities of human would grow up in accordance with the increase of the human rights sensitiveness of responsibility perception. Conclusion : Due to the actual lack of information, the collection and study of basic data is fundamental for the development of practical human rights educational programs and to emphasize the role of the defense of the human rights.

The Acceptance and Transition of Confucian Gamsil in Joseon period (조선시대 유교식 감실(龕室)의 수용과 변용)

  • Park, Jong Min
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.56-69
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    • 2011
  • A Gamsil is an ritual instrument which enshrine the ancestral tablets of four lines from late great-great-grandfather and grandmother to late father and mother. This has their soul. Juja's "Garye" informs its structure pattern. It is placed in Sadang and takes the form of a perfectly square box. It partitions four rooms and enshrine an ancestral tablet room by room. They get the ancestral tablets line up from west to east. And they also enshrine the ancestral tablets without his descendant together in Gamsil. A Gamsil is a space to enshrine the ancestral tablets and to place an order within a family. A social status and A family economic power become a standard in making and managing Sadang. Kingdom in Joseon period limited the ancestral tablets considering of his degree of official rank which descendant enshrined. A official servant can be stable economically in getting a stipend and build sadang in the house. While household a little in economic enshrine the ancestral tablets at a Gamsil placed at the a space of private home. His personal circumstances make size and pattern, place change in relation to Gamsil. A Gamsil looks like house in structure and pattern. It has the immortality of the soul. And it changed from a table size to a ancestral tablet size. This Gamsil is comfortable to move and is made considering of the width and height of household. The transition of Gamsil means institutions is in close to a family economic power in social change. Kingdom in Joseon early period makes a policy of a Gamyo's build and an ancestral enshrine in basement of Juja's "Garye". The transition of Gamsil gave a common people limitted socially and institutionally the service of late four lines. Most of people enshrine the ancestral tablets of their four lines in approaching of in the late of Joseon Dinasty. They compromise on their reality and cause. The transition of Gamsil implied many different things in social ; the authenticity search and a dignity expression of his family, the foundation for the diffusion of an ancestral service, a space sharing with ancestor and descendent, the increment of a family economic power etc.

A Study on the Exhibition through the Web with Open Source Software OMEKA (공개 소프트웨어 OMEKA를 이용한 기록 웹 전시 방안 연구)

  • Choi, Yun-Jin;Choi, Dong-Woon;Kim, Hyung-Hee;Yim, Jin-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.42
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    • pp.135-183
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    • 2014
  • Korea has a high standard of IT environment to serve exhibit programs through the web with internet propagation and IT technology. However, the web exhibition of public institutions not only seem to introduce off-line exhibitions but also not to invigorate. It is caused by the lack of awareness, the cost of system installation and the lack of professional manpower. In this situation, OMEKA could suggest practical solutions to archives where need their own exhibition through the web. Especially, it would helpful for small record management organizations which are not enough budget and personal. OMEKA is an open source software program for digital collection and contents management. It has an affinity with users unlike traditional archives service programs. It also has been variously used by libraries, museums and schools because of exceptional exhibit functions. In this article, we introduce to the installation of a practical use about OMEKA. Regarding to OMEKA features, we consider it to raise exhibit effects. OMEKA would reduce the cost related to plans of exhibitions because it could display various contents and programs which reflecting characteristics of institutions. In addition, the availability of installation and widespread technological environment would lessen burden of public institutions. Using OMEKA, they would improve service level of public institutions and, make users satisfy. Therefore, they can change the social recognition of public institutions. OMEKA can contribute to various exercises of public records. It is not just the stereotypical system but, serves exhibition and collections with the strategy which each public institution would like to display. After all, it not only to connect to users with producers but also to improve the public image of institutions positively. Then, OMEKA would bring the great result through this interaction between public institutions and users.

Work Environment Measurement Results for Research Workers and Directions for System Improvement (연구활동종사자 작업환경측정 결과 및 제도개선 방향)

  • Hwang, Je-Gyu;Byun, Hun-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.342-352
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The characteristics of research workers are different from those working in the manufacturing industry. Furthermore, the reagents used change according to the research due to the characteristics of the laboratory, and the amounts used vary. In addition, since the working time changes almost every day, it is difficult to adjust the time according to exposure standards. There are also difficulties in setting standards as in the manufacturing industry since laboratory environments and the types of experiments performed are all different. For these reasons, the measurement of the working environment of research workers is not realistically carried out within the legal framework, there is a concern that the accuracy of measurement results may be degraded, and there are difficulties in securing data. The exposure evaluation based on an eight-hour time-weighted average used for measuring the working environment to be studied in this study may not be appropriate, but it was judged and consequently applied as the most suitable method among the recognized test methods. Methods: The investigation of the use of chemical substances in the research laboratory, which is the subject of this study, was conducted in the order of carrying out work environment measurement, sample analysis, and result analysis. In the case of the use of chemical substances, after organizing the substances to be measured in the working environment, the research workers were asked to write down the status, frequency, and period of use. Work environment measurement and sample analysis were conducted by a recognized test method, and the results were compared with the exposure standards (TWA: time weighted average value) for chemical substances and physical factors. Results: For the substances subject to work environment measurement, the department of chemical engineering was the most exposed, followed by the department of chemistry. This can lead to exposure to a variety of chemicals in departmental laboratories that primarily deal with chemicals, including acetone, hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, sodium hydroxide, and normal hexane. Hydrogen chloride was measured higher than the average level of domestic work environment measurements. This can suggest that researchers in research activities should also be managed within the work environment measurement system. As a result of a comparison between the professional science and technology service industry and the education service industry, which are the most similar business types to university research laboratories among the domestic work environment measurements provided by the Korea Safety and Health Agency, acetone, dichloromethane, hydrogen peroxide, sodium hydroxide, nitric acid, normal hexane, and hydrogen chloride are items that appear higher than the average level. This can also be expressed as a basis for supporting management within the work environment measurement system. Conclusions: In the case of research activity workers' work environment measurement and management, specific details can be presented as follows. When changing projects and research, work environment measurement is carried out, and work environment measurement targets and methods are determined by the measurement and analysis method determined by the Ministry of Employment and Labor. The measurement results and exposure standards apply exposure standards for chemical substances and physical factors by the Ministry of Employment and Labor. Implementation costs include safety management expenses and submission of improvement plans when exposure standards are exceeded. The results of this study were presented only for the measurement of the working environment among the minimum health management measures for research workers, but it is necessary to prepare a system to improve the level of safety and health.

A Study on the Method of Educational Ministry for the Religious Life of the Christian Elders during the Corona Period (코로나 시대 기독 노인의 신앙생활을 위한 교육목회 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Jung Hee;Park, Eunhye
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.66
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    • pp.243-272
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    • 2021
  • Corona 19 brought about a major shift in the Korean church's pastoral style. Contact and non-contact ministry styles using the Internet and media devices are being held together. The elderly, who have been classified as digital vulnerable, need to see whether they are properly adapting to these changes and they have any difficulties in their religious lives. This study is to organize the current status of Corona 19 related to Korean churches, look at the current state of church programs for Christian elderly people, look at how important the religious life is to their lives, and to suggest educational pastoral methods for their religious lives based on the theory of Maria Harris' educational ministry. First, in terms of Koinonia, it was suggested that the heritage, beliefs, values and ways of life held by the Christian elderly be shared with people inside and outside the church in order to entertain and embrace everyone without alienation. Second, from the perspective of Leiturgia, educational ministry was proposed to expand prayer life from a personal area to a public area to become a life of practicing prayer and justice by providing public prayer content with media that can be used by the elderly to perform spirituality. Third, it was suggested that in terms of Didache, it should be required that the elderly should be educated to be familiar with the changing technologies, that teaching environment should be extended from church to online, and that the educational content of tradition and new forms should be dealt with extensively. Fourth, from the perspective of Kerigma, Christian elderly people who have suffered in various life environments, both personally and socially, should listen to the words again and gain the power to overcome the corona crisis through the God's words, so that they can be melted into the curriculum of koinonia, leiturgia, didache, and diakonia. Fifth, it was suggested that senior citizens should switch their consciousness to become subjects of service, not objects of service, and that digital literacy education should be provided individually at eye level to narrow the digital gap for Diakonia curriculum.

A Study on the Potential Use of ChatGPT in Public Design Policy Decision-Making (공공디자인 정책 결정에 ChatGPT의 활용 가능성에 관한연구)

  • Son, Dong Joo;Yoon, Myeong Han
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.172-189
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated the potential contribution of ChatGPT, a massive language and information model, in the decision-making process of public design policies, focusing on the characteristics inherent to public design. Public design utilizes the principles and approaches of design to address societal issues and aims to improve public services. In order to formulate public design policies and plans, it is essential to base them on extensive data, including the general status of the area, population demographics, infrastructure, resources, safety, existing policies, legal regulations, landscape, spatial conditions, current state of public design, and regional issues. Therefore, public design is a field of design research that encompasses a vast amount of data and language. Considering the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence technology and the significance of public design, this study aims to explore how massive language and information models like ChatGPT can contribute to public design policies. Alongside, we reviewed the concepts and principles of public design, its role in policy development and implementation, and examined the overview and features of ChatGPT, including its application cases and preceding research to determine its utility in the decision-making process of public design policies. The study found that ChatGPT could offer substantial language information during the formulation of public design policies and assist in decision-making. In particular, ChatGPT proved useful in providing various perspectives and swiftly supplying information necessary for policy decisions. Additionally, the trend of utilizing artificial intelligence in government policy development was confirmed through various studies. However, the usage of ChatGPT also unveiled ethical, legal, and personal privacy issues. Notably, ethical dilemmas were raised, along with issues related to bias and fairness. To practically apply ChatGPT in the decision-making process of public design policies, first, it is necessary to enhance the capacities of policy developers and public design experts to a certain extent. Second, it is advisable to create a provisional regulation named 'Ordinance on the Use of AI in Policy' to continuously refine the utilization until legal adjustments are made. Currently, implementing these two strategies is deemed necessary. Consequently, employing massive language and information models like ChatGPT in the public design field, which harbors a vast amount of language, holds substantial value.