• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance predicting system

Search Result 489, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.111-126
    • /
    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

A Study on the Prediction Model for Imported Vehicle Purchase Cancellation Using Machine Learning: Case of H Imported Vehicle Dealers (머신러닝을 이용한 국내 수입 자동차 구매 해약 예측 모델 연구: H 수입차 딜러사 대상으로)

  • Jung, Dong Kun;Lee, Jong Hwa;Lee, Hyun Kyu
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.105-126
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to implement a optimal machine learning model about the cancellation prediction performance in car sales business. It is to apply the data set of accumulated contract, cancellation, and sales information in sales support system(SFA) which is commonly used for sales, customers and inventory management by imported car dealers, to several machine learning models and predict performance of cancellation. Design/methodology/approach This study extracts 29,073 contracts, cancellations, and sales data from 2015 to 2020 accumulated in the sales support system(SFA) for imported car dealers and uses the analysis program Python Jupiter notebook in order to perform data pre-processing, verification, and modeling that is applying and learning to Machine learning model after then the final result was predicted using new data. Findings This study confirmed that cancellation prediction is possible by applying car purchase contract information to machine learning models. It proved the possibility of developing and utilizing a generalized predictive model by using data of imported car sales system with machine learning technology. It can reduce and prevent the sales failure as caring the potential lost customer intensively and it lead to increase sales revenue by predicting the cancellation possibility of individual customers.

Deep neural network for prediction of time-history seismic response of bridges

  • An, Hyojoon;Lee, Jong-Han
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.83 no.3
    • /
    • pp.401-413
    • /
    • 2022
  • The collapse of civil infrastructure due to natural disasters results in financial losses and many casualties. In particular, the recent increase in earthquake activities has highlighted on the importance of assessing the seismic performance and predicting the seismic risk of a structure. However, the nonlinear behavior of a structure and the uncertainty in ground motion complicate the accurate seismic response prediction of a structure. Artificial intelligence can overcome these limitations to reasonably predict the nonlinear behavior of structures. In this study, a deep learning-based algorithm was developed to estimate the time-history seismic response of bridge structures. The proposed deep neural network was trained using structural and ground motion parameters. The performance of the seismic response prediction algorithm showed the similar phase and magnitude to those of the time-history analysis in a single-degree-of-freedom system that exhibits nonlinear behavior as a main structural element. Then, the proposed algorithm was expanded to predict the seismic response and fragility prediction of a bridge system. The proposed deep neural network reasonably predicted the nonlinear seismic behavior of piers and bearings for approximately 93% and 87% of the test dataset, respectively. The results of the study also demonstrated that the proposed algorithm can be utilized to assess the seismic fragility of bridge components and system.

Experimental investigation of the shear strength of hollow brick unreinforced masonry walls retrofitted with TRM system

  • Thomoglou, Athanasia K.;Karabinis, Athanasios I.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.355-372
    • /
    • 2022
  • The study is part of an experimental program on full-scale Un-Reinforced Masonry (URM) wall panels strengthened with Textile reinforced mortars (TRM). Eight brick walls (two with and five without central opening), were tested under the diagonal tension (shear) test method in order to investigate the strengthening system effectiveness on the in-plane behaviour of the walls. All the URM panels consist of the innovative components, named "Orthoblock K300 bricks" with vertical holes and a thin layer mortar. Both of them have great capacity and easy application and can be constructed much more rapidly than the traditional bricks and mortars, increasing productivity, as well as the compressive strength of the masonry walls. Several parameters pertaining to the in-plane shear behaviour of the retrofitted panels were investigated, including shear capacity, failure modes, the number of layers of the external TRM jacket, and the existence of the central opening of the wall. For both the control and retrofitted panels, the experimental shear capacity and failure mode were compared with the predictions of existing prediction models (ACI 2013, TA 2000, Triantafillou 1998, Triantafillou 2016, CNR 2018, CNR 2013, Eurocode 6, Eurocode 8, Thomoglou et al. 2020). The experimental work allowed an evaluation of the shear performance in the case of the bidirectional textile (TRM) system applied on the URM walls. The results have shown that some analytical models present a better accuracy in predicting the shear resistance of all the strengthened masonry walls with TRM systems which can be used in design guidelines for reliable predictions.

In-Situ Performance Analysis of Centrifugal Chiller According to Varying Conditions of Chilled and Cooling Water (현장에서 운전중인 터보냉동기의 냉수와 냉각수 조건 변화에 따른 성능 해석)

  • Kim, Yeong-Il;Jang, Yeong-Su;Sin, Yeong-Gi;Baek, Yeong-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.482-490
    • /
    • 2002
  • This paper presents modelling and analyzing method of centrifugal chiller which has a rated capacity of 200 RT(703 kW) through on-site performance test. Field performance data of a chiller installed in a research building of KIST have been collected. Simple models were developed for predicting the heat exchanger and system performances by regression of chiller operation data during 5 days in August. The models proposed here account for the effect of variations of cooling capacity, temperatures and flew rates of secondary fluids. The proposed models can predict the actual performance data from June to September within $\pm$ 5% error. The COP of centrifugal chiller are estimated under the standard rating conditions and reduced mass flow rates of chilled and cooling water.

Distributed parameters modeling for the dynamic stiffness of a spring tube in servo valves

  • Lv, Xinbei;Saha, Bijan Krishna;Wu, You;Li, Songjing
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.75 no.3
    • /
    • pp.327-337
    • /
    • 2020
  • The stability and dynamic performance of a flapper-nozzle servo valve depend on several factors, such as the motion of the armature component and the deformation of the spring tube. As the only connection between the armature component and the fixed end, the spring tube plays a decisive role in the dynamic response of the entire system. Aiming at predicting the vibration characteristics of the servo valves to combine them with the control algorithm, an innovative dynamic stiffness based on a distributed parameter model (DPM) is proposed that can reflect the dynamic deformation of the spring tube and a suitable discrete method is applied according to the working condition of the spring tube. With the motion equation derived by DPM, which includes the impact of inertia, damping, and stiffness force, the mathematical model of the spring tube dynamic stiffness is established. Subsequently, a suitable program for this model is confirmed that guarantees the simulation accuracy while controlling the time consumption. Ultimately, the transient response of the spring tube is also evaluated by a finite element method (FEM). The agreement between the simulation results of the two methods shows that dynamic stiffness based on DPM is suitable for predicting the transient response of the spring tube.

Predicting Successful Defibrillation in Ventricular Fibrillation using Wave Analysis and Neuro-fuzzy

  • Shin Jae-Woo;Lee Hyun-Sook;Hwang Sung-Oh;Yoon Young-Ro
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.47-52
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to predict successful defibrillation in ventricular fibrillation using parameters extracted by wave analysis method and neuro-fuzzy. Total 15 dogs were tested for predicting successful defibrillation. Feature parameters were extracted for return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and non-ROSC by wave analysis method, and these parameters are an irregularity factor, spectral moments, mean power of level-crossing spectrum, and mean of alpha-significant value. Additionally, two parameters by analyzing method of frequency were extracted into a mean of power spectrum and a mean frequency. Then extracted parameters were analyzed in which parameters result to have high performance of discriminating ROSC and non-ROSC by a statistical method of t-test. The average of sensitivity and specificity were 62.5% and 75.0%, respectively. The average of positive predictive factor and negative predictive factor were 61.2% and 75.8%, respectively.

Assessment of Air Quality Impact Associated with Improving Atmospheric Emission Inventories of Mobile and Biogenic Sources

  • Shin, Tae-joo
    • Environmental Sciences Bulletin of The Korean Environmental Sciences Society
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-23
    • /
    • 2000
  • Photochemical air quality models are essential tools in predicting future air quality and assessing air pollution control strategies. To evaluate air quality using a photochemical air quality model, emission inventories are important inputs to these models. Since most emission inventories are provided at a county-level, these emission inventories need to be geographically allocated to the computational grid cells of the model prior to running the model. The conventional method for the spatial allocation of these emissions uses "spatial surrogate indicators", such as population for mobile source emissions and county area for biogenic source emissions. In order to examine the applicability of such approximations, more detailed spatial surrogate indicators were developed using Geographic Information System(GIS) tools to improve the spatial allocation of mobile and boigenic source emissions, The proposed spatial surrogate indicators appear to be more appropriate than conventional spatial surrogate indicators in allocating mobile and biogenic source emissions. However, they did not provide a substantial improvement in predicting ground-level ozone(O3) concentrations. As for the carbon monoxide(CO) concentration predictions, certain differences between the conventional and new spatial allocation methods were found, yet a detailed model performance evaluation was prevented due to a lack of sufficient observed data. The use of the developed spatial surrogate indicators led to higher O3 and CO concentration estimates in the biogenic source emission allocation than in the mobile source emission allocation.llocation.

  • PDF

A Pattern-Based Prediction Model for Dynamic Resource Provisioning in Cloud Environment

  • Kim, Hyuk-Ho;Kim, Woong-Sup;Kim, Yang-Woo
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.5 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1712-1732
    • /
    • 2011
  • Cloud provides dynamically scalable virtualized computing resources as a service over the Internet. To achieve higher resource utilization over virtualization technology, an optimized strategy that deploys virtual machines on physical machines is needed. That is, the total number of active physical host nodes should be dynamically changed to correspond to their resource usage rate, thereby maintaining optimum utilization of physical machines. In this paper, we propose a pattern-based prediction model for resource provisioning which facilitates best possible resource preparation by analyzing the resource utilization and deriving resource usage patterns. The focus of our work is on predicting future resource requests by optimized dynamic resource management strategy that is applied to a virtualized data center in a Cloud computing environment. To this end, we build a prediction model that is based on user request patterns and make a prediction of system behavior for the near future. As a result, this model can save time for predicting the needed resource amount and reduce the possibility of resource overuse. In addition, we studied the performance of our proposed model comparing with conventional resource provisioning models under various Cloud execution conditions. The experimental results showed that our pattern-based prediction model gives significant benefits over conventional models.

Effect of Density on Water Content Reflectometer Measured Field Water Content in Pavement Subgrades (Water Content Reflectometer로 측정한 현장 노상토의 함수량에 대한 다짐도 영향 평가)

  • Park Seong-Wan;Lee Chi-Hun;Hwang Kyu-Young
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.8 no.3 s.29
    • /
    • pp.115-127
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of field monitoring system in KHC-Test Road is to provide the performance data for environmental loadings from pavement surface. Among them, water content reflectometer(WCR) are used for measuring the volumetric water content of pavement subgrades. However, WCRs are not well-calibrated based on the local field conditions. A need therefore exists for improving equations for predicting water content using the proper field and laboratory calibrations. Based on the study performed, calibrations based on various soil characteristics and density conditions are well fitted to the data from fields. So, it is recommended to use the suggested general calibration of WCR to the compacted subgrade soils in test road for predicting the volumetric water content.

  • PDF