• Title/Summary/Keyword: Peer to peer

Search Result 2,792, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.175-196
    • /
    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Effectiveness of Smoking Prevention Program based on Social Influence Model in the Middle School Students (흡연예방교육에 의한 청소년들의 흡연에 대한 지식 및 태도변화와 흡연량의 감소 효과)

  • Roh, Won-Hwan;Kang, Pock-Soo;Kim, Sok-Beom;Lee, Kyeong-Soo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-56
    • /
    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to analyze the degree of changes in knowledge and attitude toward smoking and to examine the factors affecting knowledge and attitude for smoking after providing a smoking prevention program based on social influence model for a year to middle school students. Study population consists of 665 subjects of middle school students(aged 14 years) in Gumi city in Kyeongsangbukdo Province. Among them three-hundred sixty-seven students(intervention group) were educated to a smoking prevention program for 1 year from April 1999 to April 2000. School-based four-class program to prevent smoking was developed. The program provides instruction about short and long-term negative physiologic and social consequences of smoking and also discussed the health hazards of smoking, social pressure to smoke, peer norms regarding tobacco use, and refusal skill. A 45-item self-administered structured questionnaire was designed to evaluate the change of knowledge, attitude, smoking rate and the amount of smoking. The instrument was comprised of 11 knowledge items, thirteen attitude item and demographic items. Each scales were created by summing responses to each items within each scales and high scores on the knowledge, attitude, and smoking behavioral intention scales indicated positive responses. Based on the changes before and after the implementation of smoking prevention program between intervention and control group, the change of scores on knowledge were significantly different between the control group and the intervention group(p<0.05) and the change of scores on the attitude toward smoking was significantly different between intervention and control group. The change of smoking rate were not showing a significant difference between two groups but the amount of smoking were significantly reduced in intervention group than control group. In multiple regression analysis on changes of knowledge about smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking and students' school performance were selected the significant variables. In multiple regression to analysis of the factors influencing changes in attitude toward smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking were shown to be significant. The smoking prevention program was effective on change of knowledge and attitude of middle school students. In considering that the policy should be needed to extent of implementation of school-based health education curricula based on social influence model and it would contribute to reduce smoking of students.

  • PDF