• Title/Summary/Keyword: Pearson's curves

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Structural reliability estimation using Monte Carlo simulation and Pearson's curves

  • Krakovski, Mikhail B.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 1995
  • At present Level 2 and importance sampling methods are the main tools used to estimate reliability of structural systems. But sometimes application of these techniques to realistic problems involves certain difficulties. In order to overcome the difficulties it is suggested to use Monte Carlo simulation in combination with two other techniques-extreme value and tail entropy approximations; an appropriate Pearson's curve is fit to represent simulation results. On the basis of this approach an algorithm and computer program for structural reliability estimation are developed. A number of specially chosen numerical examples are considered with the aim of checking the accuracy of the approach and comparing it with the Level 2 and importance sampling methods. The field of application of the approach is revealed.

Identifying significant earthquake intensity measures for evaluating seismic damage and fragility of nuclear power plant structures

  • Nguyen, Duy-Duan;Thusa, Bidhek;Han, Tong-Seok;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.192-205
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    • 2020
  • Seismic design practices and seismic response analyses of civil structures and nuclear power plants (NPPs) have conventionally used the peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (Sa) as an intensity measure (IM) of an earthquake. However, there are many other earthquake IMs that were proposed by various researchers. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between seismic responses of NPP components and 23 earthquake IMs and identify the best IMs for correlating with damage of NPP structures. Particularly, low- and high-frequency ground motion records are separately accounted in correlation analyses. An advanced power reactor NPP in Korea, APR1400, is selected for numerical analyses where containment and auxiliary buildings are modeled using SAP2000. Floor displacements and accelerations are monitored for the non- and base-isolated NPP structures while shear deformations of the base isolator are additionally monitored for the base-isolated NPP. A series of Pearson's correlation coefficients are calculated to recognize the correlation between each of the 23 earthquake IMs and responses of NPP structures. The numerical results demonstrate that there is a significant difference in the correlation between earthquake IMs and seismic responses of non-isolated NPP structures considering low- and high-frequency ground motion groups. Meanwhile, a trivial discrepancy of the correlation is observed in the case of the base-isolated NPP subjected to the two groups of ground motions. Moreover, a selection of PGA or Sa for seismic response analyses of NPP structures in the high-frequency seismic regions may not be the best option. Additionally, a set of fragility curves are thereafter developed for the base-isolated NPP based on the shear deformation of lead rubber bearing (LRB) with respect to the strongly correlated IMs. The results reveal that the probability of damage to the structure is higher for low-frequency earthquakes compared with that of high-frequency ground motions.

Monitoring Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy of Primary Osteosarcoma Using Diffusion Kurtosis Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Initial Findings

  • Chenglei Liu;Yan Xi;Mei Li;Qiong Jiao;Huizhen Zhang;Qingcheng Yang;Weiwu Yao
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.801-811
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    • 2019
  • Objective: To determine whether diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) is effective in monitoring tumor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with osteosarcoma. Materials and Methods: Twenty-nine osteosarcoma patients (20 men and 9 women; mean age, 17.6 ± 7.8 years) who had undergone magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and DKI before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy were included. Tumor volume, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), mean diffusivity (MD), mean kurtosis (MK), and change ratio (ΔX) between pre-and post-treatment were calculated. Based on histologic response, the patients were divided into those with good response (≥ 90% necrosis, n = 12) and those with poor response (< 90% necrosis, n = 17). Several MRI parameters between the groups were compared using Student's t test. The correlation between image indexes and tumor necrosis was determined using Pearson's correlation, and diagnostic performance was compared using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: In good responders, MDpost, ADCpost, and MKpost values were significantly higher than in poor responders (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, and p = 0.042, respectively). The ΔMD and ΔADC were also significantly higher in good responders than in poor responders (p < 0.001 and p = 0.01, respectively). However, no significant difference was observed in ΔMK (p = 0.092). MDpost and ΔMD showed high correlations with tumor necrosis rate (r = 0.669 and r = 0.622, respectively), and MDpost had higher diagnostic performance than ADCpost (p = 0.037) and MKpost (p = 0.011). Similarly, ΔMD also showed higher diagnostic performance than ΔADC (p = 0.033) and ΔMK (p = 0.037). Conclusion: MD is a promising biomarker for monitoring tumor response to preoperative chemotherapy in patients with osteosarcoma.

The history of high intensity rainfall estimation methods in New Zealand and the latest High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3)

  • Horrell, Graeme;Pearson, Charles
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.16-16
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    • 2011
  • Statistics of extreme rainfall play a vital role in engineering practice from the perspective of mitigation and protection of infrastructure and human life from flooding. While flood frequency assessments, based on river flood flow data are preferred, the analysis of rainfall data is often more convenient due to the finer spatial nature of rainfall recording networks, often with longer records, and potentially more easily transferable from site to site. The rainfall frequency analysis as a design tool has developed over the years in New Zealand from Seelye's daily rainfall frequency maps in 1947 to Thompson's web based tool in 2010. This paper will present a history of the development of New Zealand rainfall frequency analysis methods, and the details of the latest method, so that comparisons may in future be made with the development of Korean methods. One of the main findings in the development of methods was new knowledge on the distribution of New Zealand rainfall extremes. The High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3) method (Thompson, 2011) is based upon a regional rainfall frequency analysis with the following assumptions: $\bullet$ An "index flood" rainfall regional frequency method, using the median annual maximum rainfall as the indexing variable. $\bullet$ A regional dimensionless growth curve based on the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), and using goodness of fit test for the GEV, Gumbel (EV1), and Generalised Logistic (GLO) distributions. $\bullet$ Mapping of median annual maximum rainfall and parameters of the regional growth curves, using thin-plate smoothing splines, a $2km\times2km$ grid, L moments statistics, 10 durations from 10 minutes to 72 hours, and a maximum Average Recurrence Interval of 100 years.

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Probabilistic Analysis of Forced-Damped Torsional Vibration of Marine Diesel Propulsion Shafting Systems (선박디젤추진축계 감쇠강제비틂진동의 확률적 해석)

  • S.Y. Ahn;M.B. Krakovski
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 1994
  • Recently. the excessive diesel engine torsional excitation of typical energy saving ships has resulted in severe damages of the propeller shaft. Up to now the design and torsional vibration analysis of the marine diesel shafting system has been performed on the assumption that excitations are deterministic. But a diesel engine excitation varies randomly from cylinder to cylinder and from cycle to cycle, due to the imperfect operation of the engine components due to engine misfiring. consequently, a more rational analysis method for the propulsion shafting torsional vibration is required. In this paper probabilistic analysis method of the marine diesel engine shafting system under torsional vibration is presented. First a response surface representing maximum shear stresses in a shafting system is built. Then Monte Carlo simulation with subsequent approximation of the results by one of Pearson's curves, is performed. Some numerical results based on the proposed method are compared with t도 some numerical data available. They show acceptable agreements with the data.

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Quantitative Ultrasound for Osteoporosis Screening in Postmenopausal Women (폐경 후 여성에서 골다공증의 조기검진도구로서 골초음파의 유용성)

  • Shin, Hee-Young;Jung, Eun-Kyung;Rhee, Jung-Ae;Choi, Jin-Su;Shin, Min-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.408-416
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : To evaluate the diagnostic value of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the prediction of osteoporosis as defined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) in postmenopausal women. Methods : Questionnaires and height and weight measurements were used in the investigation of 176 postmenopausal women. QUS measurements were taken on the right calcaneus while bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were made with DEXA. The areas under the curves (AUC) of the speed of sound (SOS) for osteoporosis in the lumbar spine and femoral neck were obtained through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and evaluated. A comparison was made, for osteoporosis in the lumbar spine and femoral neck, between the AUCs of the logistic model with clinical risk factors and SOS. Results : Pearson's correlation coefficients of SOS and lumbar spine BMD, and of SOS and femoral neck BMD were 0.26 and 0.37. The AUC for the logistic model in its discrimination for lumbar spine osteoporosis was 0.764, and for SOS 0.605. The AUCs for the logistic model in its discrimination for femoral neck osteoporosis and for SOS were 0.890 and 0.892, respectively. Conclusions : These results suggest that the diagnostic value of QUS as a screening tool for osteoporosis is moderate for the femoral neck, but merely low for the lumbar spine and that the predictability provided by SOS is no better than that by the sole use of clinical risk factors in postmenopausal women.

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Metabolic Changes in Patients with Parkinson's Disease after Stereotactic Neurosurgery by Follow-up 1H MR Spectroscopy

  • Choe, Bo-Young;Baik, Hyun-Man;Chun, Shin-Soo;Son, Byung-Chul;Kim, Moon-Chan;Kim, Bum-Soo;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetic Resonance Society
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2001
  • Authors investigated neuronal changes of local cellular metabolism in the cerebral lesions of Parkinsonian symptomatic side between before and after stereotactic neurosurgery by follow-up 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) (n = 15) and age-matched normal controls (n = 15) underwen MRS examinations using a stimulated echo acquisition mode (STEAM) pulse sequence that provided 2${\times}$2${\times}$2 ㎤ (8ml) volume of interest in the regions of substantia nigra, thalamus, and lentiform nucleus. Spectral parameters were 20 ms TE, 2000 ms TR, 128 averages,2500 Hz spectral width, and 2048 data points. Raw data were processed by the SAGE data analysis package (GE Medical Systems). Peak areas of N-acetylaspartate (NAA), creatine (Cr), choline-containing compounds (Cho), inositols (Ins), and the sum (Glx) of glutamate and GABA were calculated by means of fitting the spectrum to a summation of Lorentzian curves using Marquardt algorithm. After blindly processed, we evaluated neuronal alterations of observable metabolite ratios between before and after stereotactic neurosurgery using Pearson product-moment analysis (SPSS, Ver. 6.0). A significant reduction of NAA/Cho ratio was observed in the cerebral lesion in substantia nigra of PD patient related to the symptomatic side after neurosurgery (P : 0.03). In thalamus, NAA/Cho ratio was also significantly decreased in the cerebral lesion including the electrode-surgical region (P : 0.03). A significant reduction of NAA/Cho ratio in lentiform nucleus was not oberved, but tended toward significant reduction after neurosurgery (P = 0.08). In particular, remarkable lactate signal was noted from the surgical thalamic lesions of 6 among 8 patients and internal segments of globus pallidus of 6 among 7 patients, respectively. Significant metabolic alterations of NAA/Cho ratio might reflect functional changes of neuropathological processes in the lesion of substantia nigra, thalamus, and lentiform nucleus, and could be a valuable finding fur evaluation of Parkinson's disease after neurosurgery. Increase of lactate signals, being remarkable in surgical lesions, could be consistent with a common consequence of neurosurgical necrosis. Thus, IH MRS could be a useful modality to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic implications fur Parkinsons disease after functional neurosurgery.

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A Study of Spinal Curvature in Female and Male University Students (남녀 대학생의 척추만곡에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Byung-Kyu;Nam, Ki-Seok;Yi, Chung-Hwi
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.72-87
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    • 1998
  • This study examined the rates of spinal abnormal curvature and the correlation of the Body Mass Index (BMI), Low Back Pain (LBP) and spinal curvature by measuring scoliosis, kyphosis, and lordosis in university students. The study population included 67 male, 92 female university students, making a total of 159, in Wonju City. Spinal curvature was measured by an electrogoniometer in a computerized skeletal analysis system. Lateral curvature of spine of more than 10 degrees was considered as nonspostural scoliosis. The correlation of BMI, LBP and the spinal curvature was analysed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and t-test. The following results were obtained: 1. The overall incidence and rate of scoliosis in cases with a greater than 10 degree curve in males was an incidence of 8 and a rate of 11%. In females the incidence was 36 and the rate 39.2%. 2. The overall incidence and rate of kyphosis of less than 20 degrees in males was a rate of 9 and an incidence of 11.9%. In females, the rate was 5 and the incidence 5.4%. In kyphosis cases of more than 40 degrees, the male rate was 5 and the incidence 7.7%. For female the rate was 13 and the incidence 14.2%. 3. The overall incidence and rate of lordosis with curves of less than 20 degrees was a rate of 6 for males and an incidence of 9.0%. For females, the rate was 5 and the incidence 5.4%. In cases of more than 50 degrees lordosis, the female rate was 2 and the incidence 2.2%. There were no males in this category. 4. There was a negative correlation between kyphosis and BMI. The greater the kyphotic curve, the less the BMI in males (p<0.05). There was no significant BMI difference by gender in either scoliosis or lordosis. There was, however, a significantly decreased sacral angle in the female group with LBP. The results of this study cannot be generalized to the general population because the subjects were all from one university. The measurements were quite reliable because the angles determined by the Metrocom System were highly correlated with radiologic findings. This study shows the need for a regular screening system for spinal curvatures in university health examination procedures.

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Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio as A Predictor of Aspiration Pneumonia in Drug Intoxication Patients (약물중독 환자에서 Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio의 흡인성폐렴 발생 예측인자로서의 고찰)

  • Lee, Jeong Beom;Lee, Sun Hwa;Yun, Seong Jong;Ryu, Seokyong;Choi, Seung Woon;Kim, Hye Jin;Kang, Tae Kyung;Oh, Sung Chan;Cho, Suk Jin;Seo, Beom Sok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To evaluate the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and occurrence of aspiration pneumonia in drug intoxication (DI) patients in the emergency department (ED) and to evaluate the relationship between NLR and length of hospital admission/intensive care unit (ICU) admission Methods: A total of 466 patients diagnosed with DI in the ED from January 2016 to December 2017 were included in the analysis. The clinical and laboratory results, including NLR, were evaluated as variables. NLR was calculated as the absolute neutrophil count/absolute lymphocyte count. To evaluate the prognosis of DI, data on the development of aspiration pneumonia were obtained. Also, we evaluated the relationship between NLR and length of hospital admission and between NLR and length of ICU admission. Statistically, multivariate logistic regression analyses, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation (${\rho}$) were performed. Results: Among the 466 DI patients, 86 (18.5%) developed aspiration pneumonia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed NLR as an independent factor in predicting aspiration pneumonia (odds ratio, 1.7; p=0.001). NLR showed excellent predictive performance for aspiration pneumonia (areas under the ROC curves, 0.815; cut-off value, 3.47; p<0.001) with a sensitivity of 86.0% and a specificity of 72.6%. No correlations between NLR and length of hospital admission (${\rho}=0.195$) and between NLR and length of ICU admission (${\rho}=0.092$) were observed. Conclusion: The NLR is a simple and effective marker for predicting the occurrence of aspiration pneumonia in DI patients. Emergency physicians should be alert for aspiration pneumonia in DI patients with high NLR value (>3.47).

Correlation Between the Parameters of Radiosensitivity in Human Cancer Cell Lines (인체 암세포주에서 방사선감수성의 지표간의 상호관계)

  • Park, Woo-Yoon;Kim, Won-Dong;Min, Kyung-Soo
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : We conducted clonogenic assay using human cancer cell lines (MKN-45, PC-14, Y-79, HeLa) to investigate a correlation between the parameters of radiosensitivity. Materials and Methods : Human cancer cell lines were irradiated with single doses of 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10Gy for the study of radiosensitivity and subrethal damage repair capacity was assessed with two fractions of 5Gy separated with a time interval of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 24 hours. Surviving fraction was assessed with clonogenic assay using $Sperman-H\"{a}rbor$ method and mathematical analysis of survival curves was done with linear-quadratic (LQ) , multitarget-single hit(MS) model and mean inactivation dose$(\v{D})$. Results : Surviving fractions at 2Gy(SF2) were variable among the cell lines, ranged from 0.174 to 0.85 The SF2 of Y-79 was lowest and that of PC-14 was highest(p<0.05, t-test). LQ model analysis showed that the values of $\alpha$ for Y-79, MKN-45, HeLa and PC-14 were 0.603, 0.356, 0.275 and 0.102 respectively, and those of $\beta$ were 0.005, 0.016, 0.025 and 0.027 respectively. Fitting to MS model showed that the values of Do for Y-79. MKN-45, HeLa and PC-14 were 1.59. 1.84. 1.88 and 2.52 respectively, and those of n were 0.97, 1.46, 1.52 and 1 69 respectively. The $\v{D}s$ calculated by Gauss-Laguerre method were 1.62, 2.37, 2,01 and 3.95 respectively So the SF2 was significantly correlated with $\alpha$, Do and $\v{D}$. Their Pearson correlation coefficiencics were -0.953 and 0,993. 0.999 respectively(p<0.05). Sublethal damage repair was saturated around 4 hours and recovery ratios (RR) at plateau phase ranged from 2 to 3.79. But RR was not correlated with SF2, ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, Do, $\v{D}$. Conclusion : The intrinsic radiosensitivity was very different among the tested human cell lines. Y-79 was the most sensitive and PC-l4 was the least sensitive. SF2 was well correlated with ${\alpha}$, Do, and $\v{D}$. RR was high for MKN-45 and HeLa but had nothing to do with radiosensitivity parameters. These basic parameters can be used as baseline data for various in vitro radiobiological experiments.

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