• Title/Summary/Keyword: Peak flood

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Floods and Flood Warning in New Zealand

  • Doyle, Martin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2012
  • New Zealand suffers from regular floods, these being the most common source of insurance claims for damage from natural hazard events in the country. This paper describes the origin and distribution of the largest floods in New Zealand, and describes the systems used to monitor and predict floods. In New Zealand, broad-scale heavy rainfall (and flooding), is the result of warm moist air flowing out from the tropics into the mid-latitudes. There is no monsoon in New Zealand. The terrain has a substantial influence on the distribution of rainfall, with the largest annual totals occurring near the South Island's Southern Alps, the highest mountains in the country. The orographic effect here is extreme, with 3km of elevation gained over a 20km distance from the coast. Across New Zealand, short duration high intensity rainfall from thunderstorms also causes flooding in urban areas and small catchments. Forecasts of severe weather are provided by the New Zealand MetService, a Government owned company. MetService uses global weather models and a number of limited-area weather models to provide warnings and data streams of predicted rainfall to local Councils. Flood monitoring, prediction and warning are carried out by 16 local Councils. All Councils collect their own rainfall and river flow data, and a variety of prediction methods are utilized. These range from experienced staff making intuitive decisions based on previous effects of heavy rain, to hydrological models linked to outputs from MetService weather prediction models. No operational hydrological models are linked to weather radar in New Zealand. Councils provide warnings to Civil Defence Emergency Management, and also directly to farmers and other occupiers of flood prone areas. Warnings are distributed by email, text message and automated voice systems. A nation-wide hydrological model is also operated by NIWA, a Government-owned research institute. It is linked to a single high resolution weather model which runs on a super computer. The NIWA model does not provide public forecasts. The rivers with the greatest flood flows are shown, and these are ranked in terms of peak specific discharge. It can be seen that of the largest floods occur on the West Coast of the South Island, and the greatest flows per unit area are also found in this location.

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Estimation of Flood Discharge Using Satellite-Derived Rainfall in Abroad Watersheds - A Case Study of Sebou Watershed, Morocco - (위성 강우자료를 이용한 해외 유역 홍수량 추정 - 모로코 세부강 유역을 대상으로 -)

  • KIM, Joo-Hun;CHOI, Yun-Seok;KIM, Kyung-Tak
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a technical method for flood estimation based on satellite rainfall and satellite rainfall correction method for watersheds lacking measurement data. The study area was the Sebou Watershed, Morocco. The Integrated Flood Analysis System(IFAS) and Grid-based Rainfall-Runoff Model(GRM) were applied to estimate watershed runoff. Daily rainfall from ground gauges and satellite-derived hourly data were used. In the runoff simulation using satellite rainfall data, the composites of the daily gauge rainfall and the hourly satellite data were applied. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission Digital Elevation Model(SRTM DEM) with a 90m spatial resolution and 1km resolution data from Global map land cover and United States Food and Agriculture Organization(US FAO) Harmonized World Soil Database(HWSD) were used. Underestimated satellite rainfall data were calibrated using ground gauge data. The simulation results using the revised satellite rainfall data were $5,878{\sim}7,434m^3/s$ and $6,140{\sim}7,437m^3/s$ based on the IFAS and GRM, respectively. The peak discharge during flooding of Sebou River Watershed in 2009~2010 was estimated to range from $5,800m^3/s$ to $7,500m^3/s$. The flood estimations from the two hydrologic models using satellite-derived rainfall data were similar. Therefore, the calibration method using satellite rainfall suggested in this study can be applied to estimate the flood discharge of watersheds lacking observational data.

Development of a Hydrograph Triggered by Earth-Dam-Break for Compiling a Flood Hazard Map (홍수위험지도 작성을 위한 댐 붕괴 지점에서의 유량곡선 산정)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Yu, Soonyoung;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Jinwoo;Kim, Jin-Man
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2013
  • In compiling flood hazard maps for the case of dam-failure, a scenario-based numerical modeling approach is commonly used, involving the modeling of important parameters that capture peak discharge, such as breach formation and progress. In this study, an earth-dam-break model is constructed assuming an identical mechanism and hydraulic process for all dam-break processes. A focus of the analysis is estimation of the hydrograph at the outlet as a function of time. The constructed hydrograph then serves as an upper boundary condition in running the flood routing model downstream, although flood routing is not considered here. Validation was performed using the record of the Tangjishan dam-break in China. The results were satisfactory, with a coefficient of determination of 0.974, Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSC) of 0.94, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of $610m^3/sec$. The proposed model will contribute to assessments of potential flood hazards caused by dam-break.

Real-Time Forecasting of Flood Discharges Upstream and Downstream of a Multipurpose Dam Using Grey Models (Grey 모형을 이용한 다목적댐의 유입 홍수량과 하류 하천 홍수량 실시간 예측)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Cai, Ximing;Koh, Deuk-Koo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2009
  • To efficiently carry out the flood management of a multipurpose dam, two flood forecasting models are developed, each of which has the capabilities of forecasting upstream inflows and flood discharges downstream of a dam, respectively. The models are calibrated, validated, and evaluated by comparison of the observed and the runoff forecasts upstream and downstream of Namgang Dam. The upstream inflow forecasting model is based on the Grey system theory and employs the sixth order differential equation. By comparing the inflows forecasted by the models calibrated using different data sets with the observed in validation, the most appropriate model is determined. To forecast flood discharges downstream of a dam, a Grey model is integrated with a modified Muskingum flow routing model. A comparison of the observed and the forecasted values in validation reveals that the model can provide good forecasts for the dam's flood management. The applications of the two models to forecasting floods in real situations show that they provide reasonable results. In addition, it is revealed that to enhance the prediction accuracy, the models are necessary to be calibrated and applied considering runoff stages; the rising, peak, and falling stages.

Assessment of Flood Flow Conveyance for Urban Stream Using XP-SWMM (XP-SWMM을 이용한 도시하천에서의 홍수소통능력 평가)

  • Hong, Jun-Bum;Kim, Byung-Sik;Seoh, Byung-Ha;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.2 s.163
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2006
  • In recent, increasing of the impervious area gives rise to short concentration time and high peak discharge comparing with natural watershed and it is a cause of urban flood damage. Therefore, we have performed for structural and non-structural plans to reduce the damage from inundation. The Gulpo-cheon basin had been frequently inundated and damaged due to the water level of Han river. So, the Gulpo-cheon floodway was constructed with 20 meters width for flood control in the basin but it was not enough for our expectation and now we have a plan to expand the floodway to 80 meters. We use a XP-SWMM model developed based on EPA-SWMM version for analyzing the capacity of flood conveyance by the expansion of Gulpo-cheon floodway with the same 100 years return period design storm and the same tidal conditions of the Yellow sea. The flood conveyance after the expansion of floodway becomes three times comparing it with before the expansion. Also we simulate the flood discharge at the diversion point of Gulpo-cheon for the expanded condition of floodway and know that the discharge of about 300 m3/sec is flowing backward to the expanded floodway. Therefore we may need some kinds of hydraulic structures to prevent the back water.

A Forecasting Model for the Floodwave Propagation from the Hypothetical Earth Dam-Break (Earth Dam의 가상파괴로 인한 홍수파의 예측모형)

  • Lee, Jong Tae;Han, Kun Yeun;Lee, Jung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1986
  • The floodwave propagation resulting from the earth dam-break is studied. DBF(Dam-Break Floodwave) model based on the dynamic wave equation is presented by introducing Preissmann scheme and double sweep algorithm. DBF model is applied to the Teton dam, and the numerical results have good agreements with the data observed in the peak elevation profile, the peak discharge, the flood travel time and the flooded area.

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Impacts of temporal dependent errors in radar rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation

  • Ko, Dasang;Park, Taewoong;Lee, Taesam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.180-180
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    • 2015
  • Weather radar has been widely used in measuring precipitation and discharge and predicting flood risks. The radar rainfall estimate has one of the essential problems in terms of uncertainty and accuracy. Previous study analyzed radar errors to reduce its uncertainty or to improve its accuracy. Furthermore, a recent analyzed the effect of radar error on rainfall-runoff using spatial error model (SEM). SEM appropriately reproduced radar error including spatial correlation. Since the SEM does not take the time dependence into account, its time variability was not properly investigated. Therefore, in the current study, we extend the SEM including time dependence as well as spatial dependence, named after Spatial-Temporal Error Model (STEM). Radar rainfall events generated with STEM were tested so that the peak runoff from the response of a basin could be investigated according to dependent error. The Nam River basin, South Korea, was employed to illustrate the effects of STEM on runoff peak flow.

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Feasibility Analysis on the Application of Eco-friendly Prefabricated Rainwater Detention System in Grit Chamber and Permanent Pond by the Two-dimensional Diffusion-wave Analysis Model (2차원 확산파 해석모형을 통한 침사지겸 저류지의 친환경 조립식 빗물침투저류시설 적용 타당성 분석)

  • Kim, Ho-jin;Choi, Hee-Yong;Lee, Tae-Gyu;Choi, Hyeonggil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.185-186
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a numerical analysis was conducted using a two-dimensional diffusion-wave analysis model to analyze the validity about the application of eco-friendly prefabricated rainwater detention system in grit chamber and permanent pond. As a result of the analysis, it is confirmed that the flood prevention effect, such as a decrease in peak flow rate and a delay in peak time, is excellent, so it is considered reasonable to apply eco-friendly prefabricated rainwater detention system in grit chamber and permanent pond.

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A Comparative Study of Unit Hydrograph Models for Flood Runoff Estimation for the Streamflow Stations in Namgang-Dam Watershed (남강댐유역 내 주요 하천관측지점의 홍수유출량 추정을 위한 단위도 모형 비교연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Min;Kim, Sung-Jae;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2012
  • In this study, three different unit hydrograph methods (NRCS, Snyder and Clark) in the HEC-HMS were compared to find better fit with the observed data in the Namgang-Dam watershed. The Sancheong, Shinan, and Changchon in Namgang-Dam watershed were selected as the study watersheds. The input data for HEC-HMS were calculated land use, digital elevation map, stream, and watershed map provided by WAter Management Information System (WAMIS). Sixty six storms from 2004 to 2011 were selected for model calibration and validation. Three unit hydrograph methods were compared with the observed data in terms of simulated runoff volume, and peak runoff for the selected storms. The results showed that the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) for the peak runoff was 0.8295~0.9999 and root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.029~0.086 mm/day for calibration stages. In the model validation, $R^2$ for the peak runoff was 0.9061~0.9916 and RMSE was 0.030~0.088 mm/day which were more accurate than calibrated data. Analysis of variance showed that there was no significant difference among the three unit hydrograph methods.

Calculating Average Residence Time Distribution Using a Particle Tracking Model (Particle Tracking Model을 이용한 평균체류시간의 공간분포 계산)

  • Park, Sung-Eun;Hong, Sok-Jin;Lee, Won-Chan
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2009
  • A Lagrangian particle tracking model coupled with the Princeton Ocean Model were used to estimate the average residence time of coastal water in Masan Bay, Korea. Our interest in quantifying the transport time scales in Masan Bay was stimulated by the search for a mechanistic understanding of this spatial variability, which is consistent with the concept of spatially variable transport time scales. Tidal simulation was calibrated through a comparison with the results of semi-diurnal current and water elevation measured at the tidal stations of Masan, Gadeokdo. In the model simulations, particles were released in eight cases, including slack before ebb, peak ebb, slack before flood, and peak flood, during both spring and neap tides. The averaged values obtained from the particle release simulations were used for the average residence times of the coastal water in Masan Bay. The average residence times for the southeastern parts of Somodo and the Samho River, Masan Bay were estimated to be about 20~50days and 70~80days, respectively. The spatial difference for the average residence time was controlled by the tidal currents and distance from the mouth of the bay. Our results might provide useful for understanding the transport and behavior of coastal water in a bay and might be used to estimate the dissimilative capacity for environmental assessment.