• Title/Summary/Keyword: Path Prediction model

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Customer Relationship Management Techniques Based on Dynamic Customer Analysis Utilizing Data Mining (데이터마이닝을 활용한 동적인 고객분석에 따른 고객관계관리 기법)

  • 하성호;이재신
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.23-47
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    • 2003
  • Traditional studies for customer relationship management (CRM) generally focus on static CRM in a specific time frame. The static CRM and customer behavior knowledge derived could help marketers to redirect marketing resources fur profit gain at that given point in time. However, as time goes, the static knowledge becomes obsolete. Therefore, application of CRM to an online retailer should be done dynamically in time. Customer-based analysis should observe the past purchase behavior of customers to understand their current and likely future purchase patterns in consumer markets, and to divide a market into distinct subsets of customers, any of which may conceivably be selected as a market target to be reached with a distinct marketing mix. Though the concept of buying-behavior-based CRM was advanced several decades ago, virtually little application of the dynamic CRM has been reported to date. In this paper, we propose a dynamic CRM model utilizing data mining and a Monitoring Agent System (MAS) to extract longitudinal knowledge from the customer data and to analyze customer behavior patterns over time for the Internet retailer. The proposed model includes an extensive analysis about a customer career path that observes behaviors of segment shifts of each customer: prediction of customer careers, identification of dominant career paths that most customers show and their managerial implications, and about the evolution of customer segments over time. furthermore, we show that dynamic CRM could be useful for solving several managerial problems which any retailers may face.

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Design of Sensor Network for Estimation of the Shape of Flexible Endoscope (연성 대장내시경의 형상추정을 위한 센서네트워크의 설계)

  • Lee, Jae-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.299-306
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a method of shape prediction of an endoscope handling robot that can imitate a surgeon's behavior using a sensor network is suggested. Unit sensors, which are composed of a 3-axis magnetometer and 3-axis accelerometer pair comprise the network through CAN bus communication. Each unit of the sensor is used to detect the angle of the points in the longitudinal direction of the robot, which is made from a flexible tube. The signals received from the sensor network were filtered using a low pass Butterworth filter. Here, a Butterworth filter was designed for noise removal. Finally, the Euler angles were extracted from the signals, in which the noise was filtered by the low path Butterworth filter. Using this Euler angle, the position of each sensor on the sensor network is estimated. The robot body was assumed to consist of links and joints. The position of each sensor can be assumed to be attached to the center of each link. The position of each link was determined using the Euler angle and kinematics equation. The interpolation was carried out between the positions of the sensors to be able to connect each point smoothly and obtain the final posture of the endoscope in operation. The experimental results showed that the shape of the colonoscope can be visualized using the Euler angles evaluated from the sensor network suggested and the shape of serial link estimated from the kinematics chain model.

An Analysis of the Relationship between the Achievement of Intellectual Property Education and Its Factors of College Students (대학생의 지식재산 교육 성취와 그 영향요인간의 관계 분석)

  • CHEE, Seonkoo;SUL, In Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2021
  • To obtain a fruitful outcome in intellectual property (IP) education in colleges, it is essential to identify the affecting factors. The relationships between the factors were to be analyzed as a structural equation model. The IP education achievement was measured by the IP total score. The students' characteristics (input factor) were measured by defining the characteristics, parents' expectations, and IP interest. The characteristics after highschool (process factor) were observed as college satisfaction and learning attitude. Students with excellent defining characteristics have not only high college satisfaction but also an excellent learning attitude, so they have a high IP total score. Using indirect effects analysis, the path through which the defining characteristics indirectly affects the IP total score through college satisfaction and learning attitude was identified. This is consistent with the prediction that self-directed students will have high participation in IP classes and achieve excellent results. The IP interest was found to have no significant effect on the IP total score. This contradicts the belief that students with high IP interest will actively participate in IP classes and earn high scores, which is because it overlooks the possibility that participation in IP activities in high school is semi-forced.

Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Suggestion of Modified Compression Index for secondary consolidation using by Nonlinear Elasto Viscoplastic Models (비선형 점탄소성 모델을 이용한 2차압밀이 포함된 수정압축지수개발)

  • Choi, Bu-Sung;Im, Jong-Chul;Kwon, Jung-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.1115-1123
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    • 2008
  • When constructing projects such as road embankments, bridge approaches, dikes or buildings on soft, compressible soils, significant settlements may occur due to the consolidation of these soils under the superimposed loads. The compressibility of the soil skeleton of a soft clay is influenced by such factors as structure and fabric, stress path, temperature and loading rate. Although it is possible to determine appropriate relations and the corresponding material parameters in the laboratory, it is well known that sample disturbance due to stress release, temperature change and moisture content change can have a profound effect on the compressibility of a clay. The early research of Tezaghi and Casagrande has had a lasting influence on our interpretation of consolidation data. The 24 hour, incremental load, oedometer test has become, more or less, the standard procedure for determining the one-dimensional, stress-strain behavior of clays. An important notion relates to the interpretation of the data is the ore-consolidation pressure ${\sigma}_p$, which is located approximately at the break in the slope on the curve. From a practical point of view, this pressure is usually viewed as corresponding to the maximum past effective stress supported by the soil. Researchers have shown, however, that the value of ${\sigma}_p$ depends on the test procedure. furthermore, owing to sampling disturbance, the results of the laboratory consolidation test must be corrected to better capture the in-situ compressibility characteristics. The corrections apply, strictly speaking, to soils where the relation between strain and effective stress is time independent. An important assumption in Terzaghi's one-dimensional theory of consolidation is that the soil skeleton behaves elastically. On the other hand, Buisman recognized that creep deformations in settlement analysis can be important. this has led to extensions to Terzaghi's theory by various investigators, including the applicant and coworkers. The main object of this study is to suggestion the modified compression index value to predict settlements by back calculating the $C_c$ from different numerical models, which are giving best prediction settlements for multi layers including very thick soft clay.

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Extension Method of Association Rules Using Social Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 연관규칙 확장기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.