• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.1504-1514
• /
• 2018

The objective of this study is to compare the suitability of a non-parametric and 3 parametric distributions in the characterization of prediction intervals of photovoltaic power forecasts with high confidence levels. The prediction intervals of the forecasts are calculated using a method based on recent past data similar to the target forecast input data, and on a distribution assumption for the forecast error. To compare the suitability of the distributions, prediction intervals were calculated using the proposed method and each of the 4 distributions. The calculations were done for one year of day-ahead forecasts of hourly power generation of 432 PV systems. The systems have different sizes and specifications, and are installed in different locations in Japan. The results show that, in general, the non-parametric distribution assumption for the forecast error yielded the best prediction intervals. For example, with a confidence level of 85% the use of the non-parametric distribution assumption yielded a median annual forecast error coverage of 86.9%. This result was close to the one obtained with the Laplacian distribution assumption (87.8% of coverage for the same confidence level). Contrasting with that, using a Gaussian and Hyperbolic distributions yielded median annual forecast error coverage of 89.5% and 90.5%.

• 대한족부족관절학회지
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.15-20
• /
• 2024

Purpose: Achilles tendon rupture is a frequently encountered ankle pathology associated with a substantial burden of intense pain and functional deficits. Chronic Achilles tendon ruptures with considerable defects pose intricate repair challenges that are often marred by complications such as re-rupture and persistent pain. Various treatment methods, including allograft transplantation, have been proposed, but the literature on this technique is limited. In this study, we propose a surgical approach utilizing allotendon transplantation and a calcaneal tunneling technique and provide clinical evaluation details. Materials and Methods: Fifteen patients with chronic Achilles tendon ruptures treated with allotendon between 2020 and 2022 were included in the study. Patients were evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively using Visual Analog Scale (VAS) scores and Achilles Tendon Total Rupture Scores (ATRSs). Complications were assessed postoperatively. Results: The average VAS score was 7 before surgery, 7.3 immediately after surgery, and 4.3 at 1 month, 2.5 at 3 months, and 1.3 at 6 months after surgery. Because the sample was limited to 15 individuals and distributions were non-normal, the analysis was conducted using the non-parametric Wilcoxon's signed-rank test, and statistical significance was accepted for p-values<0.05. Results showed a significant improvement in ATRS and VAS scores versus preoperative and immediate postoperative values. VAS scores showed a decreasing trend after surgery, whereas average ATRS scores increased from 14 before surgery, 33.8 at 1 month, 82.7 at 3 months, and 93.9 at 6 months. Conclusion: This study suggests that allograft transplantation using the described calcaneal tunnel technique provides an effective treatment for chronic Achilles tendon ruptures. However, extensive research and long-term clinical trials are required to validate and better understand the technique's efficacy.