• Title/Summary/Keyword: Parameter Uncertainty

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A Study on Gene Search Using Test for Interval Data (구간형 데이터 검정법을 이용한 유전자 탐색에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seong-Keon
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2805-2812
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    • 2018
  • The methylation score, expressed as a percentage of the methylation status data derived from the iterative sequencing process, has a value between 0 and 1. It is contrary to the assumption of normal distribution that simply applying the t-test to examine the difference in population-specific methylation scores in these data. In addition, since the result may vary depending on the number of repetitions of sequencing in the process of methylation score generation, a method that can analyze such errors is also necessary. In this paper, we introduce the symbolic data analysis and the interval K-S test method which convert observation data into interval data including uncertainty rather than one numerical data. In addition, it is possible to analyze the characteristics of methylation score by using Beta distribution without using normal distribution in the process of converting into interval data. For the data analysis, the nature of the proposed method was examined using sequencing data of actual patients and normal persons. While the t-test is only possible for the location test, it is found that the interval type K-S statistic can be used to test not only the location parameter but also the heterogeneity of the distribution function.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

A Study on the Effect of the Introduction Characteristics of Cloud Computing Services on the Performance Expectancy and the Intention to Use: From the Perspective of the Innovation Diffusion Theory (클라우드 컴퓨팅 서비스의 도입특성이 조직의 성과기대 및 사용의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 혁신확산 이론 관점)

  • Lim, Jae Su;Oh, Jay In
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.99-124
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    • 2012
  • Our society has long been talking about necessity for innovation. Since companies in particular need to carry out business innovation in their overall processes, they have attempted to apply many innovation factors on sites and become to pay more attention to their innovation. In order to achieve this goal, companies has applied various information technologies (IT) on sites as a means of innovation, and consequently IT have been greatly developed. It is natural for the field of IT to have faced another revolution which is called cloud computing, which is expected to result in innovative changes in software application via the Internet, data storing, the use of devices, and their operations. As a vehicle of innovation, cloud computing is expected to lead the changes and advancement of our society and the business world. Although many scholars have researched on a variety of topics regarding the innovation via IT, few studies have dealt with the issue of could computing as IT. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to set the variables of innovation attributes based on the previous articles as the characteristic variables and clarify how these variables affect "Performance Expectancy" of companies and the intention of using cloud computing. The result from the analysis of data collected in this study is as follows. The study utilized a research model developed on the innovation diffusion theory to identify influences on the adaptation and spreading IT for cloud computing services. Second, this study summarized the characteristics of cloud computing services as a new concept that introduces innovation at its early stage of adaptation for companies. Third, a theoretical model is provided that relates to the future innovation by suggesting variables for innovation characteristics to adopt cloud computing services. Finally, this study identified the factors affecting expectation and the intention to use the cloud computing service for the companies that consider adopting the cloud computing service. As the parameter and dependent variable respectively, the study deploys the independent variables that are aligned with the characteristics of the cloud computing services based on the innovation diffusion model, and utilizes the expectation for performance and Intention to Use based on the UTAUT theory. Independent variables for the research model include Relative Advantage, Complexity, Compatibility, Cost Saving, Trialability, and Observability. In addition, 'Acceptance for Adaptation' is applied as an adjustment variable to verify the influences on the expected performances from the cloud computing service. The validity of the research model was secured by performing factor analysis and reliability analysis. After confirmatory factor analysis is conducted using AMOS 7.0, the 20 hypotheses are verified through the analysis of the structural equation model, accepting 12 hypotheses among 20. For example, Relative Advantage turned out to have the positive effect both on Individual Performance and on Strategic Performance from the verification of hypothesis, while it showed meaningful correlation to affect Intention to Use directly. This indicates that many articles on the diffusion related Relative Advantage as the most important factor to predict the rate to accept innovation. From the viewpoint of the influence on Performance Expectancy among Compatibility and Cost Saving, Compatibility has the positive effect on both Individual Performance and on Strategic Performance, while it showed meaningful correlation with Intention to Use. However, the topic of the cloud computing service has become a strategic issue for adoption in companies, Cost Saving turns out to affect Individual Performance without a significant influence on Intention to Use. This indicates that companies expect practical performances such as time and cost saving and financial improvements through the adoption of the cloud computing service in the environment of the budget squeezing from the global economic crisis from 2008. Likewise, this positively affects the strategic performance in companies. In terms of effects, Trialability is proved to give no effects on Performance Expectancy. This indicates that the participants of the survey are willing to afford the risk from the high uncertainty caused by innovation, because they positively pursue information about new ideas as innovators and early adopter. In addition, they believe it is unnecessary to test the cloud computing service before the adoption, because there are various types of the cloud computing service. However, Observability positively affected both Individual Performance and Strategic Performance. It also showed meaningful correlation with Intention to Use. From the analysis of the direct effects on Intention to Use by innovative characteristics for the cloud computing service except the parameters, the innovative characteristics for the cloud computing service showed the positive influence on Relative Advantage, Compatibility and Observability while Complexity, Cost saving and the likelihood for the attempt did not affect Intention to Use. While the practical verification that was believed to be the most important factor on Performance Expectancy by characteristics for cloud computing service, Relative Advantage, Compatibility and Observability showed significant correlation with the various causes and effect analysis. Cost Saving showed a significant relation with Strategic Performance in companies, which indicates that the cost to build and operate IT is the burden of the management. Thus, the cloud computing service reflected the expectation as an alternative to reduce the investment and operational cost for IT infrastructure due to the recent economic crisis. The cloud computing service is not pervasive in the business world, but it is rapidly spreading all over the world, because of its inherited merits and benefits. Moreover, results of this research regarding the diffusion innovation are more or less different from those of the existing articles. This seems to be caused by the fact that the cloud computing service has a strong innovative factor that results in a new paradigm shift while most IT that are based on the theory of innovation diffusion are limited to companies and organizations. In addition, the participants in this study are believed to play an important role as innovators and early adapters to introduce the cloud computing service and to have competency to afford higher uncertainty for innovation. In conclusion, the introduction of the cloud computing service is a critical issue in the business world.

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A Study on the Factors Influencing Technology Innovation Capability on the Knowledge Management Performance of the Company: Focused on Government Small and Medium Venture Business R&D Business (기술혁신역량이 기업의 지식경영성과에 미치는 요인에 관한 연구: 정부 중소벤처기업 R&D사업을 중심으로)

  • Seol, Dong-Cheol;Park, Cheol-Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.193-216
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    • 2020
  • Due to the recent mid- to long-term slump and falling growth rates in the global economy, interest in organizational structures that create new products or services as a new alternative to survive and develop in an opaque environment both internally and externally, and enhance organizational sustainability through changes in production methods and business innovation is increasing day by day. In this atmosphere, we agree that the growth of small and medium-sized venture companies has a significant impact on the national economy, and various efforts are being made to enhance the technological innovation capabilities of the members so that these small and medium-sized venture companies can enhance and sustain their performance. The purpose of this study is also to investigate how the technological innovation capabilities of small and medium-sized venture companies correlate with the performance of knowledge management and to analyze the role of network capabilities to organize the strategic activities of enterprise to obtain the resources and organizational capabilities to be used for value creation from external networks. In other words, research was conducted on the impact of technological innovation capabilities of small and medium venture companies on knowledge management performance by using network capabilities as parameters. Therefore, in this study, we would like to verify the hypothesis that innovation capabilities will have a positive impact on knowledge management performance by using network capabilities of small and medium venture companies. Economic activities based on technological innovation capabilities should respond quickly to new changes in an environment where uncertainty has increased, and lead to macro-economic growth and development as well as overcoming long-term economic downturns so that they can become the nation's new growth engine as well as sustainable growth and survival of the organization. In addition, this study was conducted by setting the most important knowledge management performance within the organization as a dependent variable. As a result, R&D and learning capabilities among technological innovation capabilities have no impact on financial performance. In contrast, it was shown that corporate innovation activities have a positive impact on both financial and non-financial performance. The fact that non-financial factors such as quality and productivity improvement are identified in the management of small and medium-sized venture companies utilizing their technological innovation capabilities is contrary to a number of studies by those corporate innovation activities affect financial performance during prior research. The reason for this result is that research companies have been out of start-up companies for more than seven years, but sales are less than 10 billion won, and unlike start-up companies, R&D and learning capabilities have more positive effects on intangible non-financial performance than financial performance. Corporate innovation activities have been shown to have a positive (+) impact on both financial and non-financial performance, while R&D and learning capabilities have a positive (+) impact on financial performance by parameters of network capability. Corporate innovation activities have been shown to have no impact on both financial and non-financial performance, and R&D and learning capabilities have no impact on non-financial performance. It could be seen that the parameter effects of network competency are limited to when R&D and learning competencies are derived from quantitative financial performance. It could be seen that the parameter effects of network competency are limited to when R&D and learning competencies are derived from quantitative financial performance.

Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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Sensitivity of Aerosol Optical Parameters on the Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate (에어로졸 광학변수가 대기복사가열률 산정에 미치는 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Choi, In-Jin;Yoon, Soon-Chang;Kim, Yumi
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2013
  • We estimate atmospheric radiative heating effect of aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and lidar observations and radiative transfer calculations. The column radiation model (CRM) is modified to ingest the AERONET measured variables (aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric parameter) and subsequently calculate the optical parameters at the 19 bands from the data obtained at four wavelengths. The aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere, and atmospheric absorption on pollution (April 15, 2001) and dust (April 17~18, 2001) days are 3~4 times greater than those on clear-sky days (April 14 and 16, 2001). The atmospheric radiative heating rate (${\Delta}H$) and heating rate by aerosols (${\Delta}H_{aerosol}$) are estimated to be about $3\;K\;day^{-1}$ and $1{\sim}3\;K\;day^{-1}$ for pollution and dust aerosol layers. The sensitivity test showed that a 10% uncertainty in the single scattering albedo results in 30% uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere and 60% uncertainties in atmospheric forcing, thereby translated to about 35% uncertainties in ${\Delta}H$. This result suggests that atmospheric radiative heating is largely determined by the amount of light-absorbing aerosols.

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modified Traditional Calibration Method of CRNP for Improving Soil Moisture Estimation (산악지형에서의 CRNP를 이용한 토양 수분 측정 개선을 위한 새로운 중성자 강도 교정 방법 검증 및 평가)

  • Cho, Seongkeun;Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Jeong, Jaehwan;Oh, Seungcheol;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.665-679
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    • 2019
  • Mesoscale soil moisture measurement from the promising Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) is expected to bridge the gap between large scale microwave remote sensing and point-based in-situ soil moisture observations. Traditional calibration based on $N_0$ method is used to convert neutron intensity measured at the CRNP to field scale soil moisture. However, the static calibration parameter $N_0$ used in traditional technique is insufficient to quantify long term soil moisture variation and easily influenced by different time-variant factors, contributing to the high uncertainties in CRNP soil moisture product. Consequently, in this study, we proposed a modified traditional calibration method, so-called Dynamic-$N_0$ method, which take into account the temporal variation of $N_0$ to improve the CRNP based soil moisture estimation. In particular, a nonlinear regression method has been developed to directly estimate the time series of $N_0$ data from the corrected neutron intensity. The $N_0$ time series were then reapplied to generate the soil moisture. We evaluated the performance of Dynamic-$N_0$ method for soil moisture estimation compared with the traditional one by using a weighted in-situ soil moisture product. The results indicated that Dynamic-$N_0$ method outperformed the traditional calibration technique, where correlation coefficient increased from 0.70 to 0.72 and RMSE and bias reduced from 0.036 to 0.026 and -0.006 to $-0.001m^3m^{-3}$. Superior performance of the Dynamic-$N_0$ calibration method revealed that the temporal variability of $N_0$ was caused by hydrogen pools surrounding the CRNP. Although several uncertainty sources contributed to the variation of $N_0$ were not fully identified, this proposed calibration method gave a new insight to improve field scale soil moisture estimation from the CRNP.