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An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force (노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망)

  • 김중수
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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Regional Differentials in Mortality in Korea, 1990-2000 (사망력 수준의 시ㆍ군별 편차 및 그 변화 추이, 1990∼2000)

  • 김두섭;박효준
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2003
  • This paper attempts to explore the effects of ecological and socioeconomic factors on the level of mortality and the changing trends of such effects during the period of 1990∼2000. For this purpose the population census data and micro-data from the vital statistics for years 1990, 1995 and 2000 were used. As indicators of mortality, the crude death rate(CDR), the standardized death rate(SDR) and the longevity rate were calculated for 170 'Si' s and 'Gun's. Using GIS, this paper first presents the mortality and longevity maps for years 1990, 1995 and 2000. Then ANOVA and regression analyses are carried out in an effort to generalize the effects of ecological and socioeconomic factors on the CDR, the SDR and the longevity rate. When the mortality and longevity maps are examined, three indices of mortality are found to be markedly high in the southwest coastal regions of Cholla-Nam-Do. By contrast, Seoul and Pusan metropolitan areas show substantially low level of mortality and longevity in these indices. It is also found that the regional differentials in the SDR and the longevity rate show a trend of becoming smaller after 1990. The research, however, does not find any linear relationship between the SDR and the longevity rate. The causal mechanisms of the two indices are found to be different. The results of the ANOVA and the regression analysis reveal that the locational factors of both mountainous and farming regions tend to increase the CDR and SDR while both coastal and farming regions disclose a tendency of increasing the longevity rate. The level of statistical significance of these analytical results is found to be weaker when socioeconomic factors such as education, income, marital status, availability of medical care, and sanitary conditions of the region are taken into account. The regional differentials in the mortality level seem to have a clear relationship not only with the socioeconomic factors but also with the age structure influenced by the age selectivity of migration during the past 40 years.

Dynamic Network Loading Model based on Moving Cell Theory (Moving Cell Theory를 이용한 동적 교통망 부하 모형의 개발)

  • 김현명
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.113-130
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we developed DNL(Dynamic Network Loading) model based on Moving cell theory to analyze the dynamic characteristics of traffic flow in congested network. In this paper vehicles entered into link at same interval would construct one cell, and the cells moved according to Cell following rule. In the past researches relating to DNL model a continuous single link is separated into two sections such as running section and queuing section to describe physical queue so that various dynamic states generated in real link are only simplified by running and queuing state. However, the approach has some difficulties in simulating various dynamic flow characteristics. To overcome these problems, we present Moving cell theory which is developed by combining Car following theory and Lagrangian method mainly using for the analysis of air pollutants dispersion. In Moving cell theory platoons are represented by cells and each cell is processed by Cell following theory. This type of simulation model is firstly presented by Cremer et al(1999). However they did not develop merging and diverging model because their model was applied to basic freeway section. Moreover they set the number of vehicles which can be included in one cell in one interval so this formulation cant apply to signalized intersection in urban network. To solve these difficulties we develop new approach using Moving cell theory and simulate traffic flow dynamics continuously by movement and state transition of the cells. The developed model are played on simple network including merging and diverging section and it shows improved abilities to describe flow dynamics comparing past DNL models.

The Changes and the Determinants of Korea's Market Share in U.S., Japanese, and Other DECO Imports (한국수출(韓國輸出)의 시장점유율(市場占有率) 분석(分析) : 대미(對美)·日(일)·여타(餘他) OECD 수출실적(輸出實績)을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Jung-ho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.3-30
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    • 1991
  • This paper examines Korea's exports of manufactures to the United States, Japan, and other OECD member countries in the 1974-89 period, focusing on the market share in the trade partners' imports. It decomposes the growth of exports into various effects, following the "constant-market-shares" analysis. For this purpose, the entire period is divided into three subperiods: 1974-78, 1978-83, and 1983-89. The paper also estimates a regression model of the market share determination, using the data of Korea's market share in U.S. imports. In the three subperiods under study, Korea's exports grew at different paces for varied reasons. The average annual growth rate was 28 %, 11 %, and 21 %, respectively. A large drop in the "competitiveness effect", that is, in the market-share growth rate, was mainly responsible for the decline in the export growth rate. The largest drop in the competitiveness effect was found in the light manufactures exports in the second period. The market share did not regain the rapid growth momentum. The main reason for the rise in export growth rate in the last subperiod was the "market-size effect"-a rise in the growth rate of the trade partners' imports. According to the regression results, high intensities in physical and human capital tended to lower the Korean manufacturing industries' market shares in the United States. This negative correlation was stronger in the case of human capital intensity, suggesting that Korea is relatively poorer in human capital endowment than in physical capital endowment when compared to the United States. This negative correlation between the market share and each of the two intensities became weaker overtime. This may be interpreted as the consequence of both physical and human capital accumulation which were faster than the labor force growth. Depreciation of the Japanese yen was estimated to have a negative influence on the Korean manufacturing industries' market share in the United States, and this negative influence became stronger each year in the 1980s. This seems to reflect the intensifying competition between the two countries' exports in U.S. import markets. The Heavy and Chemical Industry Policy of the 1970s, which promoted a number of selected industries by providing them with various incentives and inevitably discriminated against the rest of the industries, was estimated to have had strong negative effects on the export performance of the light manufacturing industries. This finding and the largest decline in the "competitiveness effect" -found in the light manufactures exports in the 1978-83 period-indicate that the Heavy and Chemical Industry Policy was mainly accountable for the drop in the export growth rate during the period. On the other hand, the rise in export growth rate during the subsequent subperiod was greatly impacted by the large scale exchange rate realignments of major currencies, especially by the appreciation of the Japanese yen, and other changes in international economic conditions.

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In Search of "Excess Competition" (과당경쟁(過當競爭)과 정부규제(政府規制))

  • Nam, II-chong;Kim, Jong-seok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 1991
  • Korean firms of all sizes, from virtually every industry, have used and are using the term "excessive competition" to describe the state of their industry and to call for government interventions. Moreover, the Korean government has frequently responded to such calls in various ways favorable to the firms, such as controlling entry, curbing capacity investments, or allowing collusion. Despite such interventions' impact on the overall efficiency on the Korean economy as well as on the wealth distribution among diverse groups of economic agents, the term "excessive competition", the basis for the interventions, has so far escaped rigorous scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to clarify the notion of "excessive competition" and "over-investment" which usually accompanies "excessive competition", and to examine the circumstances under which they might occur. We first survey the cases where the terms are most widely used and proceed to examine those cases to determine if competition is indeed excessive, and if so, what causes "excessive competition". Our main concern deals with the case in which the firms must make investment decisions that involve large sunk costs while facing uncertain demand. In order to analyze this case, we developed a two period model of capacity precommitment and the ensuing competition. In the first period, oligopolistic firms make capacity investments that are irreversible. Demand is uncertain in period 1 and only the distribution is known. Thus, firms must make investment decisions under uncertainty. In the second period, demand is realized, and the firms compete with quantity under realized demand and capacity constraints. In the above setting, we find that there is "no over-investment," en ante, and there is "no excessive competition," ex post. As measured by the information available in period 1, expected return from investment of a firm is non-negative, overall industry capacity does not exceed the socially optimal level, and competition in the second period yields an outcome that gives each operating firm a non-negative second period profit. Thus, neither "excessive competition" nor "over-investment" is possible. This result will generally hold true if there is no externality and if the industry is not a natural monopoly. We also extend this result by examining a model in which the government is an active participant in the game with a well defined preference. Analysis of this model shows that over-investment arises if the government cannot credibly precommit itself to non-intervention when ex post idle capacity occurs, due to socio-political reasons. Firms invest in capacities that exceed socially optimal levels in this case because they correctly expect that the government will find it optimal for itself to intervene once over-investment and ensuing financial problems for the firms occur. Such planned over-investment and ensuing government intervention are the generic problems under the current system. These problems are expected to be repeated in many industries in years to come, causing a significant loss of welfare in the long run. As a remedy to this problem, we recommend a non-intervention policy by the government which creates and utilizes uncertainty. Based upon an argument which is essentially the same as that of Kreps and Wilson in the context of a chain-store game, we show that maintaining a consistent non-intervention policy will deter a planned over-investment by firms in the long run. We believe that the results obtained in this paper has a direct bearing on the public policies relating to many industries including the petrochemical industry that is currently in the center of heated debates.

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Quantitative Rainfall Estimation for S-band Dual Polarization Radar using Distributed Specific Differential Phase (분포형 비차등위상차를 이용한 S-밴드 이중편파레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Lee, Keon-Haeng;Lim, Sanghun;Jang, Bong-Joo;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2015
  • One of main benefits of a dual polarization radar is improvement of quantitative rainfall estimation. In this paper, performance of two representative rainfall estimation methods for a dual polarization radar, JPOLE and CSU algorithms, have been compared by using data from a MOLIT S-band dual polarization radar. In addition, this paper presents evaluation of specific differential phase ($K_{dp}$) retrieval algorithm proposed by Lim et al. (2013). Current $K_{dp}$ retrieval methods are based on range filtering technique or regression analysis. However, these methods can result in underestimating peak $K_{dp}$ or negative values in convective regions, and fluctuated $K_{dp}$ in low rain rate regions. To resolve these problems, this study applied the $K_{dp}$ distribution method suggested by Lim et al. (2013) and evaluated by adopting new $K_{dp}$ to JPOLE and CSU algorithms. Data were obtained from the Mt. Biseul radar of MOLIT for two rainfall events in 2012. Results of evaluation showed improvement of the peak $K_{dp}$ and did not show fluctuation and negative $K_{dp}$ values. Also, in heavy rain (daily rainfall > 80 mm), accumulated daily rainfall using new $K_{dp}$ was closer to AWS observation data than that using legacy $K_{dp}$, but in light rain(daily rainfall < 80mm), improvement was insignificant, because $K_{dp}$ is used mostly in case of heavy rain rate of quantitative rainfall estimation algorithm.

Study on the legal system alignment of Invention Promotion Act and Its Relationship with the Framework Act on Intellectual Property (발명진흥법 법체계 정비와 지식재산 기본법의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Si-Yeol;Kim, Hwa-Rye
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.280-291
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    • 2016
  • The Invention Promotion act is one of the acts that have been frequently revised. Such frequent revisions have been pointed out as a major cause of the recent ongoing discussion on the alignment of the Invention Promotion Act. For proper alignment of the Act, diversified perspectives and issues have been discussed. Of them, the talk considering the effect of the 2011 Framework Act on Intellectual Property establishment on the Invention Promotion Act has received increasing attention. In this situation, this paper examined the relationship between the Framework Act and Invention Act with special focus on the relationship between the framework-formed law and an individual act that has existed prior to such a framework act. Based on this analysis, this study examined the alignment goal of the Invention Act. In addition, by studying the relationship between the recently-established framework act and the individual act along with revision case examples thereof, this paper aimed to produce a standard reflecting the legal reality. This study assumed that, although it is difficult to recognize any formal superiority in the Framework Act on Intellectual Property in the present South Korean legal regime, some practical superiority or practical supremacy is still deemed to be acknowledged. Under this assumption, it was found in this study that the Invention Promotion Act would also need to be managed in an appropriate relationship with the Framework Act within the range of such an attitude. Moreover, the structure would need to be reorganized. As discussed partially at the practical level, however, the Invention Promotion Act is an execution act of the Framework Act on Intellectual Property. Furthermore, it is inappropriate to seek to converge the full structures completely, given the limitations of the South Korean legal regime and the fairness balance with other legal cases. It is deemed that, although the provisions of the Framework Act on Intellectual property should be considered at the practical level, the Invention Promotion Act will need to be respected for its legislative purpose in itself.

Analysis of the Spatial Dose Rates during Dental Panoramic Radiography (치과 파노라마 촬영에서 공간선량률 분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Kyung;Park, Myeong-Hwan;Kim, Yongmin
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2016
  • A dental panoramic radiography which usually uses low level X-rays is subject to the Nuclear Safety Act when it is installed for the purpose of education. This paper measures radiation dose and spatial dose rate by usage and thereby aims to verify the effectiveness of radiation safety equipment and provide basic information for radiation safety of radiation workers and students. After glass dosimeter (GD-352M) is attached to direct exposure area, the teeth, and indirect exposure area, the eye lens and the thyroid, on the dental radiography head phantom, these exposure areas are measured. Then, after dividing the horizontal into a $45^{\circ}$, it is separated into seven directions which all includes 30, 60, 90, 120 cm distance. The paper shows that the spatial dose rate is the highest at 30 cm and declines as the distance increases. At 30 cm, the spatial dose rate around the starting area of rotation is $3,840{\mu}Sv/h$, which is four times higher than the lowest level $778{\mu}Sv/h$. Furthermore, the spatial dose rate was $408{\mu}Sv/h$ on average at the distance of 60 cm where radiation workers can be located. From a conservative point of view, It is possible to avoid needless exposure to radiation for the purpose of education. However, in case that an unintended exposure to radiation happens within a radiation controlled area, it is still necessary to educate radiation safety. But according to the current Medical Service Act, in medical institutions, even if they are not installed, the equipment such as interlock are obliged by the Nuclear Safety Law, considering that the spatial dose rate of the educational dental panoramic radiography room is low. It seems to be excessive regulation.

The Situation and the Tasks of UK Rail Privatization, Focusing on after the Hatfield Accident (영국 철도 민영화의 현황 및 과제 (Hatfield사고 이후의 변화를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines the situation and tasks of UK rail privatization, especially focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. Earlier research which focused on the UK's Privatization had little knowledge of the explanations for recent changes. Moreover they had difficulty making a direct comparison between national rail and the privatized rail. Therefore we aye left without a good explanation which has a comprehensive perspective. I attempt to show the change in the rail privatization Process and its outcome, focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. This Paper argues that the UK's vail privatization process has a regulatory framework which is too complicated with overlapping responsibilities that brought about inefficiency, increasing costs and a superficial safety regime. Especially the planning of rail and infrastructure maintenance did not come to play an appropriate role. However after 2000, the government took charge of setting the strategy for railways, and the Office of Rail Regulation covered safety performance and cost. explain that these changes present a good opportunity to solve the problem of passing the buck for poor performance. Through the analysis, I find that the passenger rail network is well-suited to deliver long distance business and commuters and that the subsidy from the government is decreasing. However, performance, for example punctuality and reliability. should be improved. Especially the Hatfield rail accident caused a reduction in the satisfaction of passengers. In future. the problems of rising costs and monopoly franchise system should be addressed.

기호학적 분석을 통한 영상애니메이션 연구

  • Lee Jong-Han
    • Broadcasting and Media Magazine
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2005
  • About the phenomenon of being imaged of everything, the scholars of the humanities who had studied on the simple reason structure in a text have been in a big agony how accept it. Especially, semiologists have studied about this for a long time and the points at issues of Saussure, Peirce as well as Umbeto Eco are more outstanding. Being based upon his philosophic interesting from medieval esthetics to modern semiotics, Eco was very concerned about the field of general esthetics and poputar arts like television and cartoons. He connected the mutual open-relations between 'signifier' and 'signified' debated in Semiotics with the open and vague modern arts and regarding it as a deviation from the custom, intensively studied the film-media. Saussure is a representative figure of semiotics and explained Sign and the character of semiotics as the division into two parts such as signifier/ signified, form/ substance, langue/ parole, synchrony/ diachrony. The triadic semiotics (the theory that Sign is composed of the triadic structure like sign, referent and interpretant) of Peirce put the new item- 'interpretant' in sign and referent to connect them and open the possibility to introduce time in to the Sign. In this paper, I try to analyze a cartoon film in the semiotic structure with the systemic, reasonable and logical approach and analysis as as possible. While the images shown through a film were depended on the romantic and impressional judge in the past, due to semiotics, it' s quite possible to correlate the procedure of symbolization to social coherence so that we analyze the incredible power of images to suck audiences with the systemetic Sign. I accept all ot film-images including a cartoon film as not the simple esthetic arts but a social custom and system, want to serve as a aid to properly understand world and humanbeings and prevent the film-image from being mystic. A cartoon and a cartoon film which were begun with the link of a text and an illustration give shape to all of images such as materials, places and even thoughts with a cartoon icon existed in only a cartoon. A cartoon and a cartoon film simply and exquistely conceptualize the complex and vague attribute of an organic creature and extend them infinetly beyond language. However, it can be exploited as a mysticism to temptate the general public and a faking material. In addition to that, it can distort our world-knowledge engaging a political power and the massive power of mass media. In this paper, being based on semiotics to approach a cartoon film in a scientific and organic system, I conclude that a non-linguistic cartoon expression is entangled with the manifold signs and implies the supplementary meanings just like a regular linguistic expression. It remarks that the iconic images of a cartoon film are composed of the social codes and can be analyzed on grounds of a linguistic system.