• Title/Summary/Keyword: Panel Causality Analysis

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The Causal Relationship Test between Marine Business Cycle and Shipping Market Using Heterogeneous Mixed Panel Framework (해운경기변동과 선박시장에 대한 다차원 혼합 패널 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

An Exploratory Study on Social Factors Affecting Job Search Behavior (구직활동의 영향요인에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lee, Byoung-Hoon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2002
  • This study presents an empirical analysis of job search behaviors by using the 3rd Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) data. The first finding of the study is that specific job search methods, respectively categorized as the indirect and the formal pattern, show the contrasting consequences of causality, as given job searchers'personal attributes and other social factors. Secondly, this analysis confirms that job searchers' education level is the most important factor that influences their behavioral patterns in a consistent manner. Moreover, it is evident in this exploratory study that job searchers' social network (particularly whether to have close ties with relatives of high social rank) is a statistically important factor to influence the extent of job search methods in use, while their fathers' education level also significantly affects the choice of job search patterns.

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The Study of Firm Performance for Education and Training: The Difference of Organization and Finance Performance (교육훈련이 기업성과에 미치는 영향 분석: 조직성과와 재무성과의 차이분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, In Hwa;Lee, Sang Jik
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2018
  • The main purpose of this study is to test the effects of education and training invest of firm performance and to find the strategy of human resources development to industry include company and government, each stakeholder etc. For this purpose, this study empirical tested the causality, effects between education and training and firm performance. Using the HCCP panel data set, panel analysis model is performed with the dependent variables. The results of the study are summarized as follows. First, education and training has a significant impact on the firm sales per employee head. But there is no evidence for the effect of education and training on the net profit per employee head. These study results indicate that firms have to increase the concern and invest for education and training.

The Relationship Between Demographic Characteristics of Committee Members and Corporate Social Responsibility Commitment: Evidence from Thailand

  • JANGKRAJARNG, Varattaya;NUNTI, Chonrada;SANTIDHIRAKUL, Orapin
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.533-539
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to consider the role of women serving in the executive committee of the company and determine how it related to corporate social and environmental responsibilities (CSR and ESR). The data was collected from the 344 companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2013 and 2014. Especially, the CSR and ESR data was collected from the annual report and used to measure activities related to environmental and social responsibilities of companies listed on the SET. This study employed panel analysis regression to analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The results indicated that the role of women who served in the executive committees of companies listed on SET had a positive impact on the social and environmental responsibilities of companies listed on the SET. The Granger causality test showed that the proportion of women holding positions on the board of directors had a statistically significant relationship with CSR and ESR, which is a unidirectional relationship. Moreover, the size of the company and the return to total assets also have a positive significant relationship with the CSR and ESR.

Study on Health Predictors of Early Retirement of Middle-aged and Elderly Workers in Korea: Proportional Hazard Model Analysis by Employment Type (중·고령자의 건강 악화가 조기은퇴에 미치는 영향 연구-근로형태 별 비례위험모형 분석)

  • Chung, Jongwoo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.871-891
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this paper is to reduce the reverse-causality and overestimate bias of analysis on how health affected middle-aged and elderly worker's early retirement. From the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA) panel data, I researched 1,049 people who were 45-52 years old in 2006. To eliminate the reverse-causality problem, I used the health data which is surveyed before retirement. To reduce bias, I controlled the health status when retirees worked. The main results are as follows. First, the worsened health still affects the hazard of early retirement, with reducing the endogeneity problem. Second, chronic illness is one of the strong predictors of early retirement to self-employed, and self-reported bad health is the main health predictor of wage workers. These results give two implications; first, the impact magnitude of the health indicator depends on employment type. Each employment type has different flexibility of working hours. It seems that the flexibility can reduce early retirement hazard with health problems. Self-employed, who has more flexibility of working hours can work until they have to stop working due to the serious health problem or doctor's advice. Second, to promote middle-aged and elderly workers to keep working, the long-term health policy which decreases chronic illness is needed.

The Spillover Effect of FDI on GDP -Analysis on Myanmar using GARCH and VAR- (외국인 직접투자의 국민소득에 대한 전이효과 -GARCH와 VAR를 이용한 분석-)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.41-63
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    • 2017
  • FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.

Analysis of Longitudinal Relation of Children's Social Withdrawal and Peer Alienation (아동의 사회적 위축과 또래소외 간의 종단적 관계)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.391-399
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the causal relationship between social withdrawal and peer alienation among Korean children. The survey study participants were 2,110 children in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th grades. The 5-year longitudinal data (Korean Child and Youth Panel Survey; KCYPS) of 1st grade elementary school student cohort was used. Latent Growth Modeling was applied to analyze the causality over time of social withdrawal and peer isolation. The results revealed that the trajectories of children's social withdrawal decreased over time. Children's social withdrawal showed significant individual differences in terms of initial value and rates of change. The initial value and slope of children's social withdrawal had an effect on the peer alienation in the 3rd grade; however, there was no significant effect on the peer alienation in the 5th grade.

Longitudinal Relationship between Negative Parenting Attitudes Perceived by Adolescents, Self-Esteem, and Life Satisfaction: Application of the Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model (청소년이 인식한 부모의 부정적 양육태도와 자아존중감, 삶의 만족도 간의 종단적 관계: 자기회귀교차지연모형의 적용)

  • Lee, Seoyeon
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to examine the mutual influences of negative parenting attitudes, self-esteem, and life satisfaction perceived by adolescent children through longitudinal perspective. Data from the first to third years of the panel of the first year middle school students were used among the 2018 data of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) of the Korea Youth Policy Institute. The longitudinal correlation was analyzed by applying the autoregressive cross-lagged model which can determine the direction of longitudinal causality between variables. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the negative parenting attitudes, self-esteem, and life satisfaction perceived by adolescents had a positive effect on the negative parenting attitude perception, self-esteem, and life satisfaction at later times, respectively. In addition, the higher the negative parenting attitude at the previous point was, the lower the self-esteem or life satisfaction afterward. The higher the life satisfaction, the lower the negative parenting attitude of the parents, and the higher the self-esteem. Recognition of negative parenting attitudes of parents lowered the self-esteem of adolescents, whereas the cross-delay coefficient from self-esteem to negative parenting attitude perception was not significant. Through these results, the longitudinal relationship between negative parenting attitude perception of adolescence, self-esteem, and life satisfaction was confirmed and efforts to form positive self-esteem and improve life satisfaction were discussed.

A Study on Path of depression of Married Working Women (기혼 취업여성의 우울 경로에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Sook;Choi, Won-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.389-412
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to closely examine causality on the married-working women's depression. For this, the analytical materials were used the primary Seoul Metropolis Welfare Panel survey data. 507 married-working women in their 20s~50s were selected among survey subjects of Seoul Metropolis Welfare Panel data. The analytical method was used the structural equation model. As a result of analysis, it could be known that the path of perfect mediating effect in depression was formed after passing through the benefits satisfaction and the marital happiness from gender role attitude in the married-working women and that the benefits satisfaction has the partial mediating effect between depression and marital happiness. Suggesting a plan for getting rid of depression in the married-working women based on the results of this study, first of all, the married-working women's depression is greatly accredited to what our society regards domestic work yet as woman's role. Thus, the policy-based measure is demanded that can support for working women to be possibly compatible in work and family life and that can induce men's participation in household affairs and child-rearing in such context. Second, it was indicated that the more the married-working women adhere strictly to the gender role attitude of traditionalism, the lower result the marital happiness and benefits satisfaction have. Considering this, a plan for activating welfare system and family-friendly system is demanded that can change gender role value in traditionalism, which is being left in our society. Third, to promote marital happiness that has great influence upon the married-working women's depression, there is a need of seeking a plan, which further intensifies the family services including the marital education and the parent education.

A Study about the Correlation between Information on Stock Message Boards and Stock Market Activity (온라인 주식게시판 정보와 주식시장 활동에 관한 상관관계 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun Mo;Yoon, Ho Young;Soh, Ry;Park, Jae Hong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.559-575
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    • 2014
  • Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.