• Title/Summary/Keyword: Panel Causality Analysis

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Analysis of the Relationship between House Price, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Variables (주택가격, 소득불평등 및 거시경제변수간의 관계분석)

  • Kwon, Sun-Hee;Hyun, Seong-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Provincial Level Data in Indonesia

  • MEIVITAWANLI, Bryna
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2021
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) is especially important for developing countries. This study investigates the determinants of FDI in the case of Indonesia. Most empirical researches in this field used time series data of a single country or panel data of several countries. Although panel data analysis is more comprehensive, however results taken from cross-country analysis cannot be directly applied to any specific country in the dataset and therefore lacks practicality. In this research, panel data analysis of a single country is performed to overcome the aforementioned shortcomings. Five determinants of FDI are tested using panel data of 33 Indonesian provinces over 10-year period of time. Two methodologies are adopted, random/fixed effects model and Granger Causality. The results show that only market size significantly affects FDI when tested using both methodologies. Human capital and financial market development show significant result in one of the two methodologies. While, economic growth and infrastructure did not show any significant results at all. This research stresses the importance of comprehensive single country analysis since only one out of five commonly discussed determinants is applicable in the case of Indonesia. Governments should therefore carefully reconsider the use of cross-country analysis as a basis of their policy formulations.

The Impact of Credit and Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in Asian Countries

  • NGUYEN, Bao K.Q.;HUYNH, Vy T.T.;TO, Bao C.N.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.165-176
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    • 2021
  • The paper has used the Solow-Swan growth model to analyze the long-term impact of credit market development and stock market development on economic growth in Asia from 2000 to 2019. The empirical model is performed with panel cointegration analysis by Common Correlated Effects (CCE) method with cross-sectional dependencies. The results find that there exists a cointegration relationship among stock market, credit market development, and economic growth. These results also show that financial structure improves the exact impact of financial development on economic growth, namely the opposite effect of stock market development and credit market development. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals a bi-directional relationship between credit market development and economic growth, while only unidirectional causality from stock market development to economic growth for the whole group panel. And it is different for a specific country, according to Kónya's test. The view of the new structuralism does not apply in the Asian financial system when we estimate the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) to analyze the asymmetric relationship between financial structure and economic growth. On the whole, policymakers can draw on the findings to provide policy implications to improve their country's financial system as well as pursue the goal of sustainable economic growth.

The Impact of Regional Economic Growth on Intraregional Disparities in Korea (지역경제 성장에 따른 지역 내부의 경제적 격차 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Han;Kim, Donghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • The aims of this study to identify the relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional regional disparities. The 16 metropolitan area, the Capital region and the southeastern region of Korea were put in the spatial scope and the time range from 2005 to 2016. Regional gross domestic product data were used to show regional growth and intraregional disparity. Panel data for each spatial unit were established, panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted to check the stability of the data. The DOLS method was used to identify relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, and the VECM model and Granger causality test was conducted to verify causality. The result of analysis of 16 metropolitan area units showed that the intraregional disparity increases as regional economic growth progresses. When the regional gross domestic product increased by 1%, the intraregional disparity increased by 1.258%, and there are short-term and long-term causality. Both the Capital region and the southeastern region had a mutual relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, but the disparity in the Capital region showed an increase and the southeastern region showed a decrease. The results of this study show that the regional disparity is increasing nationwide, but the Capital region and the southeastern region showed different stages of growth.

A Study on the Causality between Electric Reserve Margin, Electricity Tariff, Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, and Concurrent Peak in Winter and Summer: OECD Panel Analysis (전력예비율과 전기요금, 신재생, 경제성장, 동·하계 동시피크 간 인과관계 연구 : OECD 패널 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Park, Kyung-Min;Park, Jung-Gu
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.11
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    • pp.1415-1422
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, prior to 2011, the electric reserve margin followed the probabilistic reliability view and the planning reserve margin had been operated at about 15% based on the assumption that power outage was permitted within 0.5 days a year. However, after experiencing the shortage of the electric generation capacity in Sept. 15, 2011, the planning reserve margin was selected as 22% to improve the reliability of the electric supply. In this paper, using panel data of 28 OECD countries over the period 2000-2014 we attempted to empirically examine the linkage between reserve margin, electricity tariffs, renewable energy share, GDP per capita, and summer / winter peak-to-peak ratios. As a result, all four independent variables have been significant for the electric reserve margin, and in particular, we found that countries with similar peaks in winter and summer have operated 4.3% higher reserve margin than countries experiencing only summer peak.

The Longitudinal Relation between Stressors and Depression of Men in Baby Boom Generation (베이비붐 세대 남성의 스트레스 요인과 우울의 종단적 인과관계)

  • Sung, Jun Mo
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.285-310
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    • 2012
  • This study examined the causal relationship of between stressors and depression using the wave 1~4 of Korean Welfare Panel Study by social stress theory. According to the result, the level of depression and depressed group was decreased in the course of time. As a panel regression analysis, Factors affecting the reduction of depression was upward of the income hierarchy, increase the satisfaction of family and social relationships, and residential satisfaction. Based on the results, the author suggested that social work policies and intervention direction should decrease social stress factors with causality to depression of the men in baby boom generation.

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Long Run Relationship Between Population and Yield Revisited: An Analysis of Malthusian Regime (맬서스 국면에 의한 인구와 산출량의 장기적 관계 분석)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.142-155
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    • 2020
  • This study re-evaluated Malthusian regime which signifies a negative relationship between population and income by employing the trend for the population and the income of the world and panel analysis during 1820-2006 periods. Empirical evidence suggested that Malthusian regime was existed during 1900-1994 periods in the world economy. Even each country had experienced such regime in its own economic growth path. However, the population drastically decreased and output upsurged since 1995, Malthusian regime had not been revealed any more since then. Such phenomenon is mainly resulted from the output is rather increased geometrically when the population is decreased because of a social reason such as decreasing in fertility rate. In addition to this, the population contributes to the production not by a quantity but a quality which is embodied by capital. Particularly, when the population which is associated with demand side is counted, the population is said to be evolved continuously in economy.

Examining the Association of Poverty Status Transition with the Causal Relationship between Drinking Problem and Depression (음주문제와 우울 간의 인과관계와 빈곤상태 변화의 연관성 분석)

  • Hoe, Maanse
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.203-230
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    • 2013
  • The present study aimed to analyze possible causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. In addition, The study examined if poverty status transition is associated with the causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. The study sample consisted of 3,976 adults who have participated in both the first and the second wave survey of the Korea Welfare Panel Study. The causality between drinking problem and depression was analyzed using Latent Difference Scores (LDS) model, which was established in McArdle & Hanagami (2001). Furthermore, it was examined if poverty status transition (represented by four subgroups: poverty-sustained group, poverty-escaping group, non-poverty-sustained group, poverty beginning group) would influence the causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. The major findings are as follows. The result of a LDS model analysis using the entire sample shows that depression at the first wave predicts significantly the change of drinking problem between the first wave and the second wave and also drinking problem at the first wave predicts significantly the change of depression between the first wave and the second wave, which can be interpreted as there is reciprocal causal relationship between depression and drinking problem. In poverty status transition subgroup analyses, the reciprocal causal relationship between depression and drinking problem is held in the poverty-sustained group while depression is a cause of drinking problem both in the poverty beginning group and in the non-poverty-sustained group. However, there is no significant causal relationship between depression and drinking problem in the poverty-escaping group. All these findings indicate that the direction of causality between depression and drinking problem can be varied according the poverty status change, which provides a comprehensive explanation to inconsistent research findings from previous cross-section studies of the relationship between depression and drinking problem.

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Factor Analysis of Seaborne Trade Volume Affecting on The World Economy (품목별 해상 물동량이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향 요인분석)

  • Ahn, Young-Gyun;Lee, Min-Kyu;Park, Ju-Dong
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.277-296
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    • 2017
  • More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

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A Panel Logit Analysis Research on the Choice of Donate Behavior: Using 2006~2015 Data of Korea Welfare Panel (기부 행위 선택에 대한 패널 로짓 분석: 2006~2015년 한국 복지 패널 자료를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Jungeun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.18-26
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to examine the causality between socio-economic factors and Donate Behaviour. With the 10 years data in Korea Welfare Panel and Panal logit analysis, the analysis has done on the basis of household and sampled 134,500 data. The results of this research as follows: First, in demographic variables, women revealed as they donate more than men(${\beta}=.223$, p<.05). And the more the age grows, the less they donate or volunteer periodically(${\beta}=-.009$, p<.001). Second, in working conditions, paid workers showed less donate behavior than self-employment workers and economically inactive population(${\beta}=-.578$, p<.001). Third, Self-esteem(${\beta}=1.673$, p<.001)and Life satisfaction(${\beta}=1.01$, p<.001) showed significant effect on donate behavior. Lastly, scholarship of father(${\beta}=.211$, p<.001) revealed as significant on donate behavior. However, scholarship of mother did not showed significant effect. Also, the research had some limitations. First, the precision of the variables were not tested. Second, some variables to analyze were not in the data. Therefore, proper considerations on testing the precision of the variables and the method for measuring the missed variables are needed.