• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2005

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권8호
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• pp.1871-1880
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• 2020

Round robin analyses for vessel failure probabilities due to PTS events are proposed for plant-specific analyses of all types of reactors developed in Korea. Four organizations, that are responsible for regulation, operation, research and design of the nuclear power plant in Korea, participated in the round robin analysis. The vessel failure probabilities from the probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses are calculated to assure the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel during transients that are expected to initiate PTS events. The failure probabilities due to various parameters are compared with each other. All results are obtained based on several assumptions about material properties, flaw distribution data, and transient data such as pressure, temperature, and heat transfer coefficient. The realistic input data can be used to obtain more realistic failure probabilities. The various results presented in this study will be helpful not only for benchmark calculations, result comparisons, and verification of PFM codes developed but also as a contribution to knowledge management for the future generation.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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• pp.192-192
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• 2008

As the lifetime of nuclear power plants (NPPs) reaches design life, the probability for fatal accidents increases. Most of accidents are known to be caused by degradation of mechanical components. Pressure tubes are the most important components in CANDU reactor. They are subjected to various aging mechanisms such as delayed hydride cracking (DHC), irradiation and corrosion, etc. Therefore, the integrity of pressure tube is key concern in CANDU reactor. Up to recently, conventional deterministic approaches have been utilized to evaluate the integrity of components. However, there are many uncertainties to prevent a rational evaluation. The objective of this paper is to assess the failure probability of pressure tube in CANDU. To do this, probability fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA) is performed. For the verification of the analysis, a comparison of the PFM analysis using a commercial code and mathematical method is carried out.