• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overestimation

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Effects of attentional dispersion, reason for waiting, and cue of time flow on the estimation of waiting time (주의분산, 기다림의 이유, 시간 단서가 기다림 시간 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Go-Eun;Shin, Hyun-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2012
  • Two experiments were conducted to verify how the factors of attentional dispersion, reason for waiting, and cue of time flow affect the perceived waiting time. In experiment 1, based on the characteristics of waiting experience that Maister(1985) suggested, levels of attentional dispersion and whether or not offering a reason for waiting were manipulated. Participants estimated elapsed time(the objective time was 10 minutes) using either prospective or retrospective estimation method. Overall results were that they overestimated the elapsed time regardless of the experimental conditions. However, both main effects of the attentional dispersion and the reason for waiting were statistically significant. That is, when attention was more dispersed and when the reason was given, overestimation of elapsed time was reduced. No difference was found between the two estimation methods, and none of the interaction was significant. Experiment 2 was a replication of Experiment 1 except that a cue of time flow was added by using scroll bar on a computer screen. Because it has been suggested that the cue can help us to manage the waiting time and result in differences between the two time estimation methods. The results showed that main effects of the attentional dispersion and the reason for waiting were significant as those in Experiment 1. In addition, main effect of time estimation method and the three-way interaction were also significant. None of two-way interaction was significant. That is, the perceived waiting time is much shorter in the retrospective method, and the effects of the attentional dispersion and the reason of waiting were dependent upon the estimation methods. Both experiments showed that offering a clear reason for waiting is more important than the attentional dispersion in reducing the perceived waiting time. Some implications of these results for the service industry and the future direction of research were discussed in the final section.

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Impact of Emission Inventory Choices on PM10 Forecast Accuracy and Contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (배출량 목록에 따른 수도권 PM10 예보 정합도 및 국내외 기여도 분석)

  • Bae, Changhan;Kim, Eunhye;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Woo, Jung-Hun;Moon, Kwang-Joo;Shin, Hye-Jung;Song, In Ho;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.497-514
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    • 2017
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of emission inventory choices on the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the domestic/foreign contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with an air quality forecasting system. The forecasting system is composed of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Different domestic and foreign emission inventories were selectively adopted to set up four sets of emissions inputs for air quality simulations in this study. All modeling cases showed that model performance statistics satisfied the criteria levels (correlation coefficient >0.7, fractional error <50%) suggested by previous studies. Notwithstanding the apparently good model performance of total PM concentrations by all emission cases, annual average concentrations of simulated total PM concentrations varied up to $20{\mu}g/m^3$ (160%) depending on the combination of emission inventories. In detail, the difference in simulated annual average concentrations of the primary PM coarse (PMC) was up to $25.2{\mu}g/m^3$ (6.5 times) compared with other cases. Furthermore, model performance analyses on PM species showed that the difference in the simulated primary PMC led to gross model overestimation in general, which indicates that the primary PMC emissions need to be improved. The contribution analysis using model direct outputs indicated that the domestic contributions to the annual average PM concentrations in the SMA vary from 44% to 67%. To account for the uncertainty of the simulated concentration, the contribution correction factor method proposed by Bae et al. (2017) was applied, which resulted in converged contributions(from 48% to 57%). We believe this study shows that it is necessary to improve the simulated concentrations of PM components in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model. It is deemed that these improvements will provide more accurate contribution results.

The Calculation Method of Shielding Coefficient of Neutral Line against an Induced Voltage by an Aerial Power Distribution Line Reflecting the Principle of Earth Return Current (가공 배전선의 전자유도전압에 대하여 대지 귀로전류 원리를 반영한 중성선 차폐계수 계산 방법)

  • Lee, Sangmu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.86-91
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    • 2016
  • To solve the problem of the excessive error caused by using a single value for the shielding effect of the neutral line of an electric power distribution line in the calculation of the voltage it induces in a telecommunication line, the general expression that was previously developed to reflect the mechanism of voltage induction by a distribution line with multiple grounds is employed in this paper to represent the relationship between the leakage current rates at each ground pole. In this way, the formula for calculating the shielding effect of the neutral line can be factorized against the unbalanced current flowing in the neutral line, which is the root current of induction. This shielding coefficient of the neutral line is not constant, but can vary when a range of induced voltages is generated in the whole power distribution line. The calculation method developed herein reduces the error rate to one tenth of that of the existing calculation result in the case of overestimation and increases it by 14% in the case of underestimation.

Validation of Dietary Reference Intakes for predicting energy requirements in elementary school-age children

  • Kim, Eun-Kyung;Ndahimana, Didace;Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko;Lee, Sangjik;Kim, Hyungryul;Lim, Kiwon;Lee, In-Sook;Tanaka, Shigeho;Kim, Ye-Jin;Choi, Yeon-Jung;Ju, Mun-Jeong;Park, Jonghoon
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.336-341
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI) for energy are derived from total energy expenditure (TEE) measured using the doubly labelled water (DLW) method. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of DRI for predicting the energy requirements of elementary school-age children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The present study involved 25 elementary school-age children aged between 9 and 11 years. TEE was assessed by the DLW method, and the results were compared with the TEE predicted by the DRI equations in order to evaluate accuracy. RESULTS: The subjects' TEE measured by the DLW method was $1,925.2{\pm}380.9kcal/day$ in boys and $1,930.0{\pm}279.4kcal/day$ in girls, whereas resting energy expenditure was $1,220.2{\pm}176.9kcal/day$ in boys and $1,245.9{\pm}171.3kcal/day$ for girls. The physical activity level was $1.58{\pm}0.20$ in boys and $1.55{\pm}0.13$ in girls. The mean bias between the predicted and measured TEE was 12.6% in boys and -1.6% in girls, and the percentage of accurate predictions was 28.6% and 63.6%, respectively. In boys, the equation resulted in underprediction of TEE among the subjects having low TEE values, whereas there was overprediction among subjects having high TEE values as shown by the Bland-Altman plot. On the contrary, this proportional bias was not observed in girls. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that the DRI equation for energy could result in the overestimation of energy requirements in elementary school-age boys. In the case of girls, the equations could be accurate at the group level. However, the DRI appears to be invalid for individual girls, as more than one third of girls had their TEE inaccurately predicted. We recommend more studies for confirmation of these results.

The Response Correction Function of TL Dosimeter for Shallow Dose Assessment in Tl-204 Beta Fields (Tl-204 베타선장에서의 피부선량평가를 위한 열형광선량계의 베타보정함수)

  • Lee, Sang-Yoon;Kim, Jang-Lyul;Seo, Kyung-Won
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.381-388
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    • 1994
  • Recently, the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) had made some changes in the radiation sources specified from those in the original performance test criteria ANSI N13. 11-1983. In case or beta category, in addition to the high-energy $^{90}$ Sr/$^{90}$ Y beta source, the $^{204}$ Tl source was added because many workplaces have significant levels of lower energy betas. In this study, the performance or the Teledyne PB-3 personnel dosimetry system in the fields of $^{204}$ Tl and $^{90}$ Sr/ $^{90}$ Y beta was investigated using the PTB beta secondary standard sources. The new beta correction function of PB-3 personnel dosimetry system for $^{204}$ Tl beta was also developed in this response experiment. The results show that the Teledyne PB-3 personnel dosimetry system is very effective for $^{90}$ Sr/ $^{90}$ Y beta dose assessment. In case of $^{204}$ Tl beta radiation, however, the results of simple performance test indicated that the use of beta correction factor(=2.088) which was recommanded by manufacturer may result in unexpectable overestimation of delivered dose by about 60%, while the use of developed beta correction function could measure the delivered doses in errors of 15%.

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Experimental Studies on Shear Strength of High-Strength Lightweight Concrete Beam using the Industrial by-products (산업부산물을 활용한 고강도 경량콘크리트 보의 전단강도에 대한실험 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Jo;Park, Jung-Min;Kim, Wha-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.5 s.95
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    • pp.621-630
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    • 2006
  • Twelve beams made of lightweight high-strength concrete were tested to determine their diagonal cracking and ultimate shear capacities. A total of 12 beams without(4 beams) and with lightweight(8 beams) were tested in a stiff testing facility, and complete load-midspan deflection curves, including the maximum capacities portion, were obtained. The variables in the test program were concrete strength, which varied 35.4 MPa, 65.3 MPa; shear span-depth ratios a/d=1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5; and tensile steel ratio between 0.57 and 2.3 percent. Also, we divided beam by diagonal tension crack and ultimate shearing strength to propose an equation. In addition, it analyzed comparison mutually applying existing proposal and guide. $V_{cr}$ was as result that AIK recommendations and Zsutty proposal decrease more than a/d=2.5, increased some in Mathey's proposal equation. $V_{cr,\exp}/V_{cr,cal}$ showed tendency of overestimation according to increase of tensile steel ratio and compressive strength of concrete. On the other hand, $V_{cr,\exp}/V_{cr,cal}$ is superior in conformability with an experiment result Zsutty's proposal among other equations. The proposal equation hew that expect $V_{cr}/V_u$, rationally about shearing strength. Therefore, shear strength an equation is considered to be utilized usefully evaluating capacity by change of the shear span depth ratio of lightweight concrete, tensile steel ratio, and compressive strength of the concrete in this research.

Validation of MODIS-derived Aerosol Optical Thickness Using SKYNET Measurements over East Asia (SKYNET 관측 자료를 이용한 동아시아 영역에서의 MODIS 에어로솔 광학 두께 산출물 검증)

  • Jang, Hyun-Sung;Song, Hwan-Jin;Chun, Hyoung-Wook;Sohn, Byung-Ju;Takamura, Tamio
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2011
  • Using six-year (2004-2009) SKYNET measurements, MODIS-derived AOTs were validated at five SKYNET sites (Seoul, Chiba, Etchujima, Fukuejima, and Hedomisaki), in addition to climatological analysis of MODIS-derived optical properties over the East Asian domain ($20-50^{\circ}N$, $90-150^{\circ}E$). In so doing MODIS-SKYNET collocated AOT data were constructed if two measurements are taken within 25 km distance and within 30 minute time difference. From the comparison of two measurements, it is demonstrated that aerosol type insignificantly affects the accuracy of MODIS AOT. It is because the aerosol model combining predefined fine aerosol model and coarse aerosol model is used for the retrieval. However, positive bias between MODIS and SKYNET increases as fraction of the coarse aerosol model increases. In addition, MODIS AOT appears to be overestimated in case of lower aerosol loading while the overestimation tends to decrease with increased aerosol loading. Regression analysis between MODIS AOT and SKYNET AOT for 550 nm band yields 0.86, 0.16, and 0.61 of regression slope, intercept, and coefficient of determination, respectively. Those statistical results may draw a conclusion that MODIS AOTs over East Asia carry a reasonable accuracy compared to ground-based SKYNET measurements.

Macroscopic Serosal Invasion in Advanced Gastric Cancer (진행성 위암에서 육안적 장막침윤의 의의)

  • Yun, Woo-Sung;Kim, Tae-Bong;Yu, Wan-Sik
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.84-90
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: The macroscopic findings of tumors are not always identical with the microscopic findings. This study investigated the oncologic implications of macroscopic serosal invasion in advanced gastric cancer to find out how to improve the accuracy for the depth of invasion assessed by the surgeon during an operation. Materials and Methods: The medical records of 789 patients with advanced gastric cancer who underwent a gastrectomy at Kyungpook National University Hospital between 1995 and 1999 were reviewed. The prognoses and the recurrence patterns were analyzed according to macroscopic serosal invasion and microscopic serosal invasion, and the clinico-pathological factors of cT3/ss cancers were compared with those of cT3/se cancers. Results: Difference of survival rates according to macroscopic serosal invasion and microscopic serosal invasion revealed statistically significant. Recurrence rates were similar in patients with macroscopic and microscopic serosal invasion (42.2% and 41.4%, respectively). Peritoneal recurrence rates were also similar (19.8% and 21.9%, respectively). The sensitivity and the specificity of macroscopic assessment of serosal invasion were 70.3% and 77.8%, respectively, On univariate and multivariate analyses, Borrmann type I/II cancers and the absence of distant metastases revealed the risk factors for overestimating of serosal invasion. Conclusion: Macroscopic serosal invasion assessed by a surgeon intraoperatively can be used to give a prognosis and to predict the recurrence pattern precisely, although there is a risk for overestimation when the tumor is a Borrmann type I/II cancer or the tumor has no distant metastases. (J Korean Gastric Cancer Assoc 2006;6:84-90)

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Analysis of the Fog Detection Algorithm of DCD Method with SST and CALIPSO Data (SST와 CALIPSO 자료를 이용한 DCD 방법으로 정의된 안개화소 분석)

  • Shin, Daegeun;Park, Hyungmin;Kim, Jae Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.471-483
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    • 2013
  • Nighttime sea fog detection from satellite is very hard due to limitation in using visible channels. Currently, most widely used method for the detection is the Dual Channel Difference (DCD) method based on Brightness Temperature Difference between 3.7 and 11 ${\mu}m$ channel (BTD). However, this method have difficulty in distinguishing between fog and low cloud, and sometimes misjudges middle/high cloud as well as clear scene as fog. Using CALIPSO Lidar Profile measurements, we have analyzed the intrinsic problems in detecting nighttime sea fog from various satellite remote sensing algorithms and suggested the direction for the improvement of the algorithm. From the comparison with CALIPSO measurements for May-July in 2011, the DCD method excessively overestimates foggy pixels (2542 pixels). Among them, only 524 pixel are real foggy pixels, but 331 pixels and 1687 pixels are clear and other type of clouds, respectively. The 514 of real foggy pixels accounts for 70% of 749 foggy pixels identified by CALIPSO. Our proposed new algorithm detects foggy pixels by comparing the difference between cloud top temperature and underneath sea surface temperature from assimilated data along with the DCD method. We have used two types of cloud top temperature, which obtained from 11 ${\mu}m$ brightness temperature (B_S1) and operational COMS algorithm (B_S2). The detected foggy 1794 pixels from B_S1 and 1490 pixel from B_S2 are significantly reduced the overestimation detected by the DCD method. However, 477 and 446 pixels have been found to be real foggy pixels, 329 and 264 pixels be clear, and 989 and 780 pixels be other type of clouds, detected by B_S1 and B_S2 respectively. The analysis of the operational COMS fog detection algorithm reveals that the cloud screening process was strictly enforced, which resulted in underestimation of foggy pixel. The 538 of total detected foggy pixels obtain only 187 of real foggy pixels, but 61 of clear pixels and 290 of other type clouds. Our analysis suggests that there is no winner for nighttime sea fog detection algorithms, but loser because real foggy pixels are less than 30% among the foggy pixels declared by all algorithms. This overwhelming evidence reveals that current nighttime sea fog algorithms have provided a lot of misjudged information, which are mostly originated from difficulty in distinguishing between clear and cloudy scene as well as fog and other type clouds. Therefore, in-depth researches are urgently required to reduce the enormous error in nighttime sea fog detection from satellite.

A Comparison of the Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Obtained by an Inverse Modeling System and Passenger Aircraft Based Measurement (인버스 모델링 방법을 통해 추정된 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도와 항공 관측 자료 비교)

  • Kim, Hyunjung;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kim, Jinwoong;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.387-400
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations estimated by CT2013B, a recent version of CarbonTracker, are compared with $CO_2$ measurements from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project during 2010-2011. CarbonTracker is an inversion system that estimates surface $CO_2$ fluxes using atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations. Overall, the model results represented the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations well with a slight overestimation compared to observations. In the case of horizontal distribution, variations in the model and observation difference were large in northern Eurasia because most of the model and data mismatch were located in the stratosphere where the model could not represent $CO_2$ variations well enough due to low model resolution at high altitude and existing phase shift from the troposphere. In addition, the model and observation difference became larger in boreal summer. Despite relatively large differences at high latitudes and in boreal summer, overall, the modeled $CO_2$ concentrations fitted well to observations. Vertical profiles of modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations showed that the model overestimates the observations at all altitudes, showing nearly constant differences, which implies that the surface $CO_2$ concentration is transported well vertically in the transport model. At Narita, overall differences were small, although the correlation between modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations decreased at higher altitude, showing relatively large differences above 225 hPa. The vertical profiles at Moscow and Delhi located on land and at Hawaii on the ocean showed that the model is less accurate on land than on the ocean due to various effects (e.g., biospheric effect) on land compared to the homogeneous ocean surface.