• Title/Summary/Keyword: Output Prediction

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Leak flow prediction during loss of coolant accidents using deep fuzzy neural networks

  • Park, Ji Hun;An, Ye Ji;Yoo, Kwae Hwan;Na, Man Gyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2547-2555
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    • 2021
  • The frequency of reactor coolant leakage is expected to increase over the lifetime of a nuclear power plant owing to degradation mechanisms, such as flow-acceleration corrosion and stress corrosion cracking. When loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) occur, several parameters change rapidly depending on the size and location of the cracks. In this study, leak flow during LOCAs is predicted using a deep fuzzy neural network (DFNN) model. The DFNN model is based on fuzzy neural network (FNN) modules and has a structure where the FNN modules are sequentially connected. Because the DFNN model is based on the FNN modules, the performance factors are the number of FNN modules and the parameters of the FNN module. These parameters are determined by a least-squares method combined with a genetic algorithm; the number of FNN modules is determined automatically by cross checking a fitness function using the verification dataset output to prevent an overfitting problem. To acquire the data of LOCAs, an optimized power reactor-1000 was simulated using a modular accident analysis program code. The predicted results of the DFNN model are found to be superior to those predicted in previous works. The leak flow prediction results obtained in this study will be useful to check the core integrity in nuclear power plant during LOCAs. This information is also expected to reduce the workload of the operators.

An Analysis of the Prediction Accuracy of HVAC Fan Energy Consumption According to Artificial Neural Network Variables (인공신경망 변수에 따른 HVAC 에너지 소비량 예측 정확도 평가 - 송풍기를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jee-Heon;Seong, Nam-Chul;Choi, Won-Chang;Choi, Ki-Bong
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2018
  • In this study, for the prediction of energy consumption in the ventilator, one of the components of the air conditioning system, the predicted results were analyzed and accurate by the change in the number of neurons and inputs. The input variables of the prediction model for the energy volume of the fan were the supply air flow rate, the exhaust air flow rate, and the output value was the energy consumption of the fan. A predictive model has been developed to study with the Levenbarg-Marquardt algorithm through 8760 sets of one-minute resolution. Comparison of actual energy use and forecast results showed a margin of error of less than 1% in all cases and utilization time of less than 3% with very high predictability. MBE was distributed with a learning period of 1.7% to 2.95% and a service period of 2.26% to 4.48% respectively, and the distribution rate of ${\pm}10%$ indicated by ASHRAE Guidelines 14 was high.8.

Prediction of compressive strength of concrete modified with fly ash: Applications of neuro-swarm and neuro-imperialism models

  • Mohammed, Ahmed;Kurda, Rawaz;Armaghani, Danial Jahed;Hasanipanah, Mahdi
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.489-512
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    • 2021
  • In this study, two powerful techniques, namely particle swarm optimization (PSO) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) were selected and combined with a pre-developed ANN model aiming at improving its performance prediction of the compressive strength of concrete modified with fly ash. To achieve this study's aims, a comprehensive database with 379 data samples was collected from the available literature. The output of the database is the compressive strength (CS) of concrete samples, which are influenced by 9 parameters as model inputs, namely those related to mix composition. The modeling steps related to ICA-ANN (or neuro-imperialism) and PSO-ANN (or neuro-swarm) were conducted through the use of several parametric studies to design the most influential parameters on these hybrid models. A comparison of the CS values predicted by hybrid intelligence techniques with the experimental CS values confirmed that the neuro-swarm model could provide a higher degree of accuracy than another proposed hybrid model (i.e., neuro-imperialism). The train and test correlation coefficient values of (0.9042 and 0.9137) and (0.8383 and 0.8777) for neuro-swarm and neuro-imperialism models, respectively revealed that although both techniques are capable enough in prediction tasks, the developed neuro-swarm model can be considered as a better alternative technique in mapping the concrete strength behavior.

Vertical Z-vibration prediction model of ground building induced by subway operation

  • Zhou, Binghua;Xue, Yiguo;Zhang, Jun;Zhang, Dunfu;Huang, Jian;Qiu, Daohong;Yang, Lin;Zhang, Kai;Cui, Jiuhua
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.273-280
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    • 2022
  • A certain amount of random vibration excitation to subway track is caused by subway operation. This excitation is transmitted through track foundation, tunnel, soil medium, and ground building to the ground and ground structure, causing vibration. The vibration affects ground building. In this study, the results of ANSYS numerical simulation was used to establish back-propagation (BP) neural network model. Moreover, a back-propagation neural network model consisting of five input neurons, one hidden layer, 11 hidden-layer neurons, and three output neurons was used to analyze and calculate the vertical Z-vibration level of New Capital's ground buildings of Qingdao Metro phase I Project (Line M3). The Z-vibration level under different working conditions was calculated from monolithic roadbed, steel-spring floating slab roadbed, and rubber-pad floating slab roadbed under the working condition of center point of 0-100 m. The steel-spring floating slab roadbed was used in the New Capital area to monitor the subway operation vibration in this area. Comparing the monitoring and prediction results, it was found that the prediction results have a good linear relationship with lower error. The research results have good reference and guiding significance for predicting vibration caused by subway operation.

Accuracy Analysis of Predicted CODE GIM in the Korean Peninsula

  • Ei-Ju Sim;Kwan-Dong Park;Jae-Young Park;Bong-Gyu Park
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.423-430
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    • 2023
  • One recent notable method for real-time elimination of ionospheric errors in geodetic applications is the Predicted Global Ionosphere Map (PGIM). This study analyzes the level of accuracy achievable when applying the PGIM provided by the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) to the Korean Peninsula region. First, an examination of the types and lead times of PGIMs provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) Analysis Center revealed that CODE's two-day prediction model, C2PG, is available approximately eight hours before midnight. This suggests higher real-time usability compared to the one-day prediction model, C1PG. When evaluating the accuracy of PGIM by assuming the final output of the Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) as a reference, it was found that on days with low solar activity, the error is within ~2 TECU, and on days with high solar activity, the error reaches ~3 TECU. A comparison of the errors introduced when using PGIM and three solar activity indices-Kp index, F10.7, and sunspot number-revealed that F10.7 exhibits a relatively high correlation coefficient compared to Kp-index and sunspot number, confirming the effectiveness of the prediction model.

Comparison of estimating vegetation index for outdoor free-range pig production using convolutional neural networks

  • Sang-Hyon OH;Hee-Mun Park;Jin-Hyun Park
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.6
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    • pp.1254-1269
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to predict the change in corn share according to the grazing of 20 gestational sows in a mature corn field by taking images with a camera-equipped unmanned air vehicle (UAV). Deep learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has been verified for its performance in various areas. It has also demonstrated high recognition accuracy and detection time in agricultural applications such as pest and disease diagnosis and prediction. A large amount of data is required to train CNNs effectively. Still, since UAVs capture only a limited number of images, we propose a data augmentation method that can effectively increase data. And most occupancy prediction predicts occupancy by designing a CNN-based object detector for an image and counting the number of recognized objects or calculating the number of pixels occupied by an object. These methods require complex occupancy rate calculations; the accuracy depends on whether the object features of interest are visible in the image. However, in this study, CNN is not approached as a corn object detection and classification problem but as a function approximation and regression problem so that the occupancy rate of corn objects in an image can be represented as the CNN output. The proposed method effectively estimates occupancy for a limited number of cornfield photos, shows excellent prediction accuracy, and confirms the potential and scalability of deep learning.

Predictive Model for Evaluating Startup Technology Efficiency: A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Approach Focusing on Companies Selected by TIPS, a Private-led Technology Startup Support Program

  • Jeongho Kim;Hyunmin Park;JooHee Oh
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.167-179
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    • 2024
  • This study addresses the challenge of objectively evaluating the performance of early-stage startups amidst limited information and uncertainty. Focusing on companies selected by TIPS, a leading private sector-driven startup support policy in Korea, the research develops a new indicator to assess technological efficiency. By analyzing various input and output variables collected from Crunchbase and KIND (Korea Investor's Network for Disclosure System) databases, including technology use metrics, patents, and Crunchbase rankings, the study derives technological efficiency for TIPS-selected startups. A prediction model is then developed utilizing machine learning techniques such as Random Forest and boosting (XGBoost) to classify startups into efficiency percentiles (10th, 30th, and 50th). The results indicate that prediction accuracy improves with higher percentiles based on the technical efficiency index, providing valuable insights for evaluating and predicting startup performance in early markets characterized by information scarcity and uncertainty. Future research directions should focus on assessing growth potential and sustainability using the developed classification and prediction models, aiding investors in making data-driven investment decisions and contributing to the development of the early startup ecosystem.

Improvement of Wave Height Mid-term Forecast for Maintenance Activities in Southwest Offshore Wind Farm (서남권 해상풍력단지 유지보수 활동을 위한 중기 파고 예보 개선)

  • Ji-Young Kim;Ho-Yeop Lee;In-Seon Suh;Da-Jeong Park;Keum-Seok Kang
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2023
  • In order to secure the safety of increasing offshore activities such as offshore wind farm maintenance and fishing, IMPACT, a mid-term marine weather forecasting system, was established by predicting marine weather up to 7 days in advance. Forecast data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA), which provides the most reliable marine meteorological service in Korea, was used, but wind speed and wave height forecast errors increased as the leading forecast period increased, so improvement of the accuracy of the model results was needed. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) method, a post-correction method using statistical machine learning, was applied to improve the prediction accuracy of wave height, which is an important factor in forecasting the risk of marine activities. Compared with the observed data, the wave height prediction results by the model before correction for 6 to 7 days ahead showed an RMSE of 0.692 m and R of 0.591, and there was a tendency to underestimate high waves. After correction with the MOS technique, RMSE was 0.554 m and R was 0.732, confirming that accuracy was significantly improved.

Power consumption prediction model based on artificial neural networks for seawater source heat pump system in recirculating aquaculture system fish farm (순환여과식 양식장 해수 열원 히트펌프 시스템의 전력 소비량 예측을 위한 인공 신경망 모델)

  • Hyeon-Seok JEONG;Jong-Hyeok RYU;Seok-Kwon JEONG
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2024
  • This study deals with the application of an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict power consumption for utilizing seawater source heat pumps of recirculating aquaculture system. An integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the TRNSYS program to obtain input and output data for the ANN model to predict the power consumption of the recirculating aquaculture system with a heat pump system. Data obtained from the TRNSYS program were analyzed using linear regression, and converted into optimal data necessary for the ANN model through normalization. To optimize the ANN-based power consumption prediction model, the hyper parameters of ANN were determined using the Bayesian optimization. ANN simulation results showed that ANN models with optimized hyper parameters exhibited acceptably high predictive accuracy conforming to ASHRAE standards.

Pile bearing capacity prediction in cold regions using a combination of ANN with metaheuristic algorithms

  • Zhou Jingting;Hossein Moayedi;Marieh Fatahizadeh;Narges Varamini
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.417-440
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    • 2024
  • Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been the focus of several studies when it comes to evaluating the pile's bearing capacity. Nonetheless, the principal drawbacks of employing this method are the sluggish rate of convergence and the constraints of ANN in locating global minima. The current work aimed to build four ANN-based prediction models enhanced with methods from the black hole algorithm (BHA), league championship algorithm (LCA), shuffled complex evolution (SCE), and symbiotic organisms search (SOS) to estimate the carrying capacity of piles in cold climates. To provide the crucial dataset required to build the model, fifty-eight concrete pile experiments were conducted. The pile geometrical properties, internal friction angle 𝛗 shaft, internal friction angle 𝛗 tip, pile length, pile area, and vertical effective stress were established as the network inputs, and the BHA, LCA, SCE, and SOS-based ANN models were set up to provide the pile bearing capacity as the output. Following a sensitivity analysis to determine the optimal BHA, LCA, SCE, and SOS parameters and a train and test procedure to determine the optimal network architecture or the number of hidden nodes, the best prediction approach was selected. The outcomes show a good agreement between the measured bearing capabilities and the pile bearing capacities forecasted by SCE-MLP. The testing dataset's respective mean square error and coefficient of determination, which are 0.91846 and 391.1539, indicate that using the SCE-MLP approach as a practical, efficient, and highly reliable technique to forecast the pile's bearing capacity is advantageous.