• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ordered probit regression model

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Assessing Public Attitude for Multifunctional Roles of the U.S. Agriculture Using a Bivariate Ordered Probit Model (Bivariate Ordered Probit 모형을 이용한 미국 농업의 다원적 기능에 대한 소비자 인식분석)

  • Han, Jung-Hee;Moon, Wan-Ki;Cho, Yong-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.413-439
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    • 2009
  • This study conducts a survey and test to understand U.S. public's perception about multifunctionality. The questionnaire suggests seven alternative way of providing questions about intangible benefits provided by agriculture in the U.S. The final questionnaire was administered as an e-mail survey in June 2008 to a nationally representative household panel maintained in the U.S. by the Ipsos Observer. Data analysis shows that 64 percent of respondents considered the multifunctionality of agriculiture as an important issue and 45 percent of respondents were in favor of increasing government expenditure to support farmland preservation. Using Fishbein's multi-attribute model as a theoretical background, this paper develops an empirical model to assess and attributes of multifunctionality. For the analysis, bivariate orderd probit model was set up to reflect respondent's attitude. Regression analyses show that two questions (how much you agree with agriculture's intangible benefit and increasing government expenditure to support agriculture) are shaped by different sets of facts.

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Comparative study of prediction models for corporate bond rating (국내 회사채 신용 등급 예측 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Park, Hyeongkwon;Kang, Junyoung;Heo, Sungwook;Yu, Donghyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.367-382
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    • 2018
  • Prediction models for a corporate bond rating in existing studies have been developed using various models such as linear regression, ordered logit, and random forest. Financial characteristics help build prediction models that are expected to be contained in the assigning model of the bond rating agencies. However, the ranges of bond ratings in existing studies vary from 5 to 20 and the prediction models were developed with samples in which the target companies and the observation periods are different. Thus, a simple comparison of the prediction accuracies in each study cannot determine the best prediction model. In order to conduct a fair comparison, this study has collected corporate bond ratings and financial characteristics from 2013 to 2017 and applied prediction models to them. In addition, we applied the elastic-net penalty for the linear regression, the ordered logit, and the ordered probit. Our comparison shows that data-driven variable selection using the elastic-net improves prediction accuracy in each corresponding model, and that the random forest is the most appropriate model in terms of prediction accuracy, which obtains 69.6% accuracy of the exact rating prediction on average from the 5-fold cross validation.

Crash Severity Impact of Fixed Roadside Objects using Ordered Probit Model (도로변 수직구조물 충돌사고의 심각도 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Joonbeom;Lee, Soobeom;Yun, Dukgeun;Park, Jaehong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2016
  • OBJECTIVES : Fixed roadside objects are a threat to drivers when their vehicles deviate from the road. Therefore, such roadside objects need to be suitably dealt with to decrease accidents. This study determines the factors affecting the severity of accidents because of fixed roadside objects. METHODS : This study analyzed the crash severity impact of fixed roadside objects by using ordered probit regression as the analysis methodology. In this research, data from 896 traffic accidents reported in the last three years were used. These accidents consisted of sole-car accidents, fixed roadside object accidents, and lane-departure accidents on the national highway of Korea. The accident severity was classified as light injury, severe injury, and death. The factors relating to the road and the driver were collected as independent variables. RESULTS : The result of the analysis showed that the variables of the crash severity impact are the collision location (left side), gender of the driver (female), alcohol use, collision facility (roadside trees, traffic signals, telephone poles), and type of road (rural segments). Additionally, the collision location (left side), gender of the driver (female), alcohol use, collision facility (street trees, traffic signals, telephone poles), and type of road (rural segments), in order of influence, were found to be the factors affecting the crash severity in accidents due to fixed roadside objects. CONCLUSIONS : An alternative solution is urgently required to reduce the crash severity in accidents due to fixed roadside objects. Such a solution can consider the appropriate places to install breakaway devices and energy-absorbing systems.

Comparison of Methodologies for Characterizing Pedestrian-Vehicle Collisions (보행자-차량 충돌사고 특성분석 방법론 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Saerona;Jeong, Eunbi;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2013
  • The major purpose of this study is to evaluate methodologies to predict the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Methodologies to be evaluated and compared in this study include Binary Logistic Regression(BLR), Ordered Probit Model(OPM), Support Vector Machine(SVM) and Decision Tree(DT) method. Valuable insights into applying methodologies to analyze the characteristics of pedestrian injury severity are derived. For the purpose of identifying causal factors affecting the injury severity, statistical approaches such as BLR and OPM are recommended. On the other hand, to achieve better prediction performance, heuristic approaches such as SVM and DT are recommended. It is expected that the outcome of this study would be useful in developing various countermeasures for enhancing pedestrian safety.

The Establishment of Security Strategies for Introducing Cloud Computing

  • Yoon, Young Bae;Oh, Junseok;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.860-877
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    • 2013
  • Cloud computing has become one of the most important technologies for reducing cost and increasing productivity by efficiently using IT resources in various companies. The cloud computing system has mainly been built for private enterprise, but public institutions, such as governments and national institutes, also plans to introduce the system in Korea. Various researches have pointed to security problems as a critical factor to impede the vitalization of cloud computing services, but they only focus on the security threats and their correspondents for addressing the problems. There are no studies that analyze major security issues with regard to introducing the cloud computing system. Accordingly, it is necessary to research the security factors in the cloud computing given to public institutions when adopting cloud computing. This research focuses on the priority of security solutions for the stepwise adoption of cloud computing services in enterprise environments. The cloud computing security area is classified into managerial, physical and technical area in the research, and then derives the detailed factors in each security area. The research derives the influence of security priorities in each area on the importance of security issues according to the identification of workers in private enterprise and public institutions. Ordered probit models are used to analyze the influences and marginal effects of awareness for security importance in each area on the scale of security priority. The results show workers in public institutions regard the technical security as the highest importance, while physical and managerial security are considered as the critical security factors in private enterprise. In addition, the results show workers in public institutions and private enterprise have remarkable differences of awareness for cloud computing security. This research compared the difference in recognition for the security priority in three areas between workers in private enterprise, which use cloud computing services, and workers in public institutions that have never used the services. It contributes to the establishment of strategies, with respect to security, by providing guidelines to enterprise or institutions that want to introduce cloud computing systems.

Development of Severity Model for Rural Unsignalized Intersection Crashes (지방부 비신호 교차로 교통사고 심각도 예측모형 개발 - 수도권 주변 및 전라북도 지역의 3지 비신호 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Eung-Cheol;Sung, Nak-Moon;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2008
  • Generally, accident exposure at intersections is relatively higher than that at roadway segments due to more possibility of merging, diverging, turning, crossing, and weaving maneuver. Furthermore, the traffic accident rate at intersections has been rapidly increasing since 1990's. Since there is more opportunity of conflict at unsignalized intersection, frequency and severity of traffic accident are more severe than signalized intersections. The purpose of the study is to analyze factors causing vehicle crashes and provide intersection design guidelines to improve intersection safety. For this study, vehicle to vehicle crash data of 116 rural 3 legs unsignalized were collected and field surveys were conducted for traffic and geometric conditions. Ordered probit models were developed to analyze the severity of crashes. It was found that weather, obstacles in minor roadsides, presence of major exclusive right lane, presence of major road crosswalk, difference between posted speed of major road and minor road, land-use around intersections, shoulder width of major road, ADT of major road are significant factors for intersection safety.

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The effects of dominating large shareholders and foreign blockholders on the Korean firms' credit ratings (한국기업에서 지배대주주와 외국인주주가 신용등급에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Choong-Hwan;Gong, Jaisik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2014
  • This paper examines the effects of dominating large shareholders and foreign blockholders on credit ratings. An effective governance mechanism is expected to lead to higher credit ratings through its impact on default risk of the firm. Our results show that dominating large shareholders have an adverse impact on credit ratings of domestic firms on the level of its statistical significance. Foreign shareholders are positively associated with credit ratings, contributing to the higher credit worthness of domestic firms.