• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.957-962
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• 2008

We propose a model for the line expansion problem in the AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diodes) industry, which now faces market uncertainty: for example, changing customer needs, technological development path, etc. We focus on the optimal investment time and size of the AMOLED production lines. In particular, employed here is the ROV (Real Options Valuation) model to show how to capture the value of line expansion and to determine the optimal investment time. The ROV framework provides a systematic procedure to quantify an expected outcome of a flexible decision which is not possible in the frame of the traditional NPV (Net Present Value) approach. Furthermore, we also use Monte Carlo simulation to measure the uncertainty associated with the line expansion decision; Monte Carlo simulation estimates the volatility of a decision alternative. Lastly, we present a scenario planning to be conducted for what-if analysis of the ROV model.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.170-177
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• 2011

We present an improved binomial method for pricing financial deriva-tives by using cell averages. After non-overlapping cells are introduced around each node in the binomial tree, the proposed method calculates cell averages of payoffs at expiry and then performs the backward valuation process. The price of the derivative and its hedging parameters such as Greeks on the valuation date are then computed using the compact scheme and Richardson extrapolation. The simulation results for European and American barrier options show that the pro-posed method gives much more accurate price and Greeks than other recent lattice methods with less computational effort.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.29-39
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• 2001

Traditionally, companies have been concerned with making an investment decision either to go now or never to go forever. However, owing to the development of the theory of options pricing in a financial investment field and its introduction to the appraisal of real investments in these days, we are now partially allowed to derive the value of a managerial flexibility of real investment projects. In this paper, we derived a general mathematical model to price the option value of real investment projects assuming that they have only one-period of time under which uncertainty exists. This mathematical model was developed based on the opportunity cost concept. We will show a simple numerical example to illustrate how the mathematical model works comparing it with the existing models.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.173-183
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• 2002

This study reviewed a broad range of existing reform options, and on the basis of this review proposed a number of initiatives for institutional reform in developing countries. This strategies were intended to help FAO staff to provide guidance to the developing countries for the reform of their agricultural and rural extension systems. The paper defines the distinction among extension as a function, agricultural extension as part of a larger knowledge triangle, and agricultural and rural extension as an expanded concept of knowledge and information systems. The focus is on new measures that promote food security, market-driven system, and highly competitive agribusiness enterprises. Moreover, this study focus on the tensions that exist between the modern force of globalization and the traditional forces of culture, geography, and community.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.103-121
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• 2017

This paper experimentally studies the performance of negotiation considering individual and party, like a country, share of benefit over the best ones. It experiments two-stage bargaining games, internal and external negotiations. From the experimental results, this paper shows strong tendency to select fair allocation in the internal negotiations, but the tendency would be weaker with attractive outside option. In addition, the outside option may claim difference in individual benefit. From the regressions on individual performance in the negotiations, being a proposing party would matter to enhance the performance. However, relative individual performance within party fairness matters. Still attractive no-agreement options happen to break the tendency. As policy implication for trade negotiation, this paper warns that possible loss in individual benefit from not active participation to the external negotiations, no active role of proposer in case that players stick to internal allocations, and deviation of advantageous sector due to attractive outside options.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.113-125
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• 2008

Net present value (NPV) and return on investment (ROI) are commonly used to evaluate investment in new technologies. Sometimes, however, measuring the value of investment in new IT becomes very difficult due to its wide scope of application coupled with embedded options in its adoption. Therefore, comprehensive but easily understandable methodologies are needed to solve the complicated problems resulting from the complexity of new technologies. This paper employs a real option analysis to evaluate RFID adoption in the supply chain. Real options analysis should be a better way to evaluate a disruptive technology like RFID. However, the pure (probabilistic) real option rule characterizes the present value of expected cash flows and the expected costs by a single number, which is not realistic in many cases. To solve the problem, this paper considers the real option rule in a more realistic setting, namely, when the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.77-89
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• 2016

Due to recent proliferation of the mobile shopping channels, customers increasingly tend to purchase using online channel while experiencing physical products in offline shops. This phenomenon requires traditional offline retailers to consider integrating online channels. In this study, we propose strategic options for the traditional offline retailers regarding the online channel integration, and provide corresponding decision models to maximize the expected profits. We also investigate how the strategic options vary with the product characteristics, by categorizing the products based on inventory cost, demand uncertainty, and fitness to the online channels. By analyzing numerical examples we illustrate how the best online channel integration strategy should be differentiated depending on the product categories.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.29-50
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• 2005

Real options provide a new and productive way to view corporate r&d investment decisions. DCF approach is well established and beloved of financial executives, but is known to systematically underestimate investment value under significant uncertainty. Though real options are not inherent in a r&d investment, they can be used to compute the investment value including managerial flexibility like option value. In this paper, we explain how the interval of option value in black-scholes model can be estimated using simulation. We also present a process framework for interval estimation of volatility and efficient of period of investment value. In such a setting, we can obtain the appropriate interval estimation of the expanded investment value.

• Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.48-58
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• 2020

Although the prevalence of rotator cuff tears is dependent on the size, 11% to 94% of patients experience retear or healing failure after rotator cuff repair. Treatment of patients with failed rotator cuff repair ranges widely, from conservative treatment to arthroplasty. This review article attempts to summarize the most recent and relevant surgical options for failed rotator cuff repair patients, and the outcomes of each treatment, except arthroplasty.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 2015

Purpose - Foreign exchange risk control is in an important component in the international supply chain management. This study shows the importance of the reference period in forecasting future exchange rates with a specific illustration of KIKO currency option contracts, and suggests feasible preventive measures. Research design, data, and methodology - Using monthly Won-Dollar exchange rate data for January 1995~July 2007, I evaluate the statistical characteristics of the exchange rate for two sub-periods; 1) a shorter period after the East Asian financial crisis and 2) a longer period including the financial crisis. The key instrument of analysis is the basic normal distribution theory. Results - The difference in the reference period could lead to an unexpected development in contract implementation and a consequent financial loss. We may avoid foreign exchange loss by using derivatives such as forwards or currency options. Conclusions - We should consider not only level values but also the volatilities of financial variables in making a binding financial contract. Appropriate measures may differ depending on the specific supply chain pattern. We may extend the study with surveys on actual risk measures.