• Title/Summary/Keyword: Option price

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Income prediction of apple and pear farmers in Chungnam area by automatic machine learning with H2O.AI

  • Hyundong, Jang;Sounghun, Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.619-627
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, apples and pears are among the most important agricultural products to farmers who seek to earn money as income. Generally, farmers make decisions at various stages to maximize their income but they do not always know exactly which option will be the best one. Many previous studies were conducted to solve this problem by predicting farmers' income structure, but researchers are still exploring better approaches. Currently, machine learning technology is gaining attention as one of the new approaches for farmers' income prediction. The machine learning technique is a methodology using an algorithm that can learn independently through data. As the level of computer science develops, the performance of machine learning techniques is also improving. The purpose of this study is to predict the income structure of apples and pears using the automatic machine learning solution H2O.AI and to present some implications for apple and pear farmers. The automatic machine learning solution H2O.AI can save time and effort compared to the conventional machine learning techniques such as scikit-learn, because it works automatically to find the best solution. As a result of this research, the following findings are obtained. First, apple farmers should increase their gross income to maximize their income, instead of reducing the cost of growing apples. In particular, apple farmers mainly have to increase production in order to obtain more gross income. As a second-best option, apple farmers should decrease labor and other costs. Second, pear farmers also should increase their gross income to maximize their income but they have to increase the price of pears rather than increasing the production of pears. As a second-best option, pear farmers can decrease labor and other costs.

Using the Binomial Option Pricing Model for Strategic Sales of CER's to Improve the Economic Feasibility of CDM projects (이항옵션가격 모형을 활용한 CER 판매전략 구축과 이를 통한 CDM 사업 수익성 향상 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, Bonsang;Park, Jong-Ho;Kim, Cheong-Woon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2014
  • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows New & Renewable Energy projects to make additional income by selling CER's, which represent the amount of Green House Gases(GHG) that is reduced in the project. However, forward contracts used to hedge fluctuating market prices does not allow projects to sell CER's at a premium. As an alternate approach to maximize CER revenue, CER's are modeled as a 'real option', in which CER's are sold only above the desired sales price. Using the Binomial Option Pricing model, the resultant lattices are used to determine whether to sell, defer or abandon the option at individual nodes. Overlaying Pascal's Triangle on the lattices also enabled the calculation of the annual probabilities for deferring CER sales without incurring downside losses. Application to an actual Landfill Gas project showed increased overall NPV, and that CER sales could be deferred at a maximum of 2 years. The proposed framework allows transparency in the analysis and provides valuable and strategical information when making investment decisions related to CER sales of CDM projects.

Market Oriented Revenue Assistance for Farmers: A Case Study of the United State's ACRE Program

  • Zulauf, Carl;Rhew, Chan-Hee;Kim, Sang-Hyo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Intense debate is occurring over support for farmers in Korea, specifically on the justification, policy design, and equality issues of the farm support programs. Given this debate, a new type of farm program in the US, a market flexible revenue program(the Average Crop Revenue Election, ACRE), is examined. ACRE stands in contrast to traditional programs that tie payments to price and have parameters that are fixed or change only infrequently. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the ACRE program formulas, the potential payments are estimated by crop year, program crop and geographical area using the FSA acreage and payment rate data. Results - If all US farm program acres were in ACRE over the 2009-2013 crop years, payments would have totaled $7.95 billion or 1.2 percent of average market receipts for US crops. Enacting ACRE as a revenue program instead of a similarly-structured price-only program increased payments by $1.75 billion or 28 percent. Conclusions - Potential payments by ACRE largely reflected the distribution of the value of production across the program crops eligible for ACRE as well as across state geographical areas. If program parameters can be made acceptable and if data availability issues can be addressed, market flexible revenue programs offer a farm policy option that can address many of the concerns that have arisen over farm policy in Korea.

Sensitivity Analysis of JLSP Inventory Model with Ordering Cost inclusive of a Freight Cost under Trade Credit in a Two-stage Supply Chain

  • Shinn, Seong-Whan
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.300-306
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the distributor's inventory model in a two-stage supply chain consisting of the supplier, the distributor and the end customer. The supplier will allow a credit period before the distributor settles the account with him in order to stimulate the demand for the product he produces. It is also assumed that the distributor pays the shipping cost for the order and hence, the distributor's ordering cost consists of a fixed ordering cost and the shipping cost that depend on the order quantity. The availability of the delay in payments from the supplier enables discount of the distributor's selling price from a wider range of the price option in anticipation of increased customer's demand. As a result, the availability of a credit transaction leads to an increase in inventory levels. On the other hand, in the case of deteriorating products in which the utility of the product perish over time, the deterioration rate with time plays a role in reducing inventory levels. In this regard, we analyze the effect of the length of the credit period and the degree of product deterioration on the distributor's inventory level. For the analysis, we formulate the distributor's annual net profit and analyze the effect of the length of credit period and deterioration rate of the product on inventory policy numerically.

A Study on the Determination of the optimal incentives and amount of load reduction for a retailer to maximize profits considering Demand Response Programs (수요반응 프로그램을 고려시 전력판매사업자의 이익을 최대화하는 최적 인센티브 및 부하 감축량 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Kwag, Hyung-Geun;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.291-297
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    • 2010
  • A system called demand response programs (DRP) is being introduced among various countries owing to the lack of new generation capacity and the higher fuel generation cost. It is a program which provides for the end-users to select their consumption of electricity by recognizing the value of their consumption in real time. That is, Demand Response can be defined as the changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity or other signals. It is expected that the effects of DRP are preventing price spike, improving supply reliability and social welfare and increasing option of customers. Considering the customer's thermal comfort zone, this paper determines the most profitable combination of optimal incentives and amounts of load reduction for a retailer to maximize profits according to predicted outdoor temperatures while implementing DRP.

Joint Price and Lot-size Determination for Decaying Items with Ordering Cost Inclusive of a Freight Cost under Trade Credit in a Two-stage Supply Chain (2 단계 신용거래 공급망에서 운송비용이 포함된 주문 비용을 고려한 퇴화성제품의 재고정책 및 판매가격 결정 모형)

  • Shinn, Seong-Whan
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2020
  • As an effective means of price discrimination, some suppliers offer trade credit to the distributors for the purpose of increasing the demand of the product they produce. The availability of the delay in payments from the supplier enables discount of the distributor's selling price from a wider range of the price option in anticipation of increased customer's demand. In this regard, we consider the problem of determining the distributor's optimal price and lot size simultaneously when the supplier permits delay in payments for an order of a product whose demand rate is represented by a constant price elasticity function. It is assumed that the distributor pays the shipping cost for the order and hence, the distributor's ordering cost consists of a fixed ordering cost and the shipping cost that depend on the order quantity. For the analysis, it is also assumed that inventory is depleted not only by customer's demand but also by decay. We are able to develop a solution algorithm from the properties of the mathematical model. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the algorithm developed.

The Effect of Common Features on Consumer Preference for a No-Choice Option: The Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus (재몰유선택적정황하공동특성대우고객희호적영향(在没有选择的情况下共同特性对于顾客喜好的影响): 조절초점적조절작용(调节焦点的调节作用))

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Kim, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • This study researches the effects of common features on a no-choice option with respect to regulatory focus theory. The primary interest is in three factors and their interrelationship: common features, no-choice option, and regulatory focus. Prior studies have compiled vast body of research in these areas. First, the "common features effect" has been observed bymany noted marketing researchers. Tversky (1972) proposed the seminal theory, the EBA model: elimination by aspect. According to this theory, consumers are prone to focus only on unique features during comparison processing, thereby dismissing any common features as redundant information. Recently, however, more provocative ideas have attacked the EBA model by asserting that common features really do affect consumer judgment. Chernev (1997) first reported that adding common features mitigates the choice gap because of the increasing perception of similarity among alternatives. Later, however, Chernev (2001) published a critically developed study against his prior perspective with the proposition that common features may be a cognitive load to consumers, and thus consumers are possible that they are prone to prefer the heuristic processing to the systematic processing. This tends to bring one question to the forefront: Do "common features" affect consumer choice? If so, what are the concrete effects? This study tries to answer the question with respect to the "no-choice" option and regulatory focus. Second, some researchers hold that the no-choice option is another best alternative of consumers, who are likely to avoid having to choose in the context of knotty trade-off settings or mental conflicts. Hope for the future also may increase the no-choice option in the context of optimism or the expectancy of a more satisfactory alternative appearing later. Other issues reported in this domain are time pressure, consumer confidence, and alternative numbers (Dhar and Nowlis 1999; Lin and Wu 2005; Zakay and Tsal 1993). This study casts the no-choice option in yet another perspective: the interactive effects between common features and regulatory focus. Third, "regulatory focus theory" is a very popular theme in recent marketing research. It suggests that consumers have two focal goals facing each other: promotion vs. prevention. A promotion focus deals with the concepts of hope, inspiration, achievement, or gain, whereas prevention focus involves duty, responsibility, safety, or loss-aversion. Thus, while consumers with a promotion focus tend to take risks for gain, the same does not hold true for a prevention focus. Regulatory focus theory predicts consumers' emotions, creativity, attitudes, memory, performance, and judgment, as documented in a vast field of marketing and psychology articles. The perspective of the current study in exploring consumer choice and common features is a somewhat creative viewpoint in the area of regulatory focus. These reviews inspire this study of the interaction possibility between regulatory focus and common features with a no-choice option. Specifically, adding common features rather than omitting them may increase the no-choice option ratio in the choice setting only to prevention-focused consumers, but vice versa to promotion-focused consumers. The reasoning is that when prevention-focused consumers come in contact with common features, they may perceive higher similarity among the alternatives. This conflict among similar options would increase the no-choice ratio. Promotion-focused consumers, however, are possible that they perceive common features as a cue of confirmation bias. And thus their confirmation processing would make their prior preference more robust, then the no-choice ratio may shrink. This logic is verified in two experiments. The first is a $2{\times}2$ between-subject design (whether common features or not X regulatory focus) using a digital cameras as the relevant stimulus-a product very familiar to young subjects. Specifically, the regulatory focus variable is median split through a measure of eleven items. Common features included zoom, weight, memory, and battery, whereas the other two attributes (pixel and price) were unique features. Results supported our hypothesis that adding common features enhanced the no-choice ratio only to prevention-focus consumers, not to those with a promotion focus. These results confirm our hypothesis - the interactive effects between a regulatory focus and the common features. Prior research had suggested that including common features had a effect on consumer choice, but this study shows that common features affect choice by consumer segmentation. The second experiment was used to replicate the results of the first experiment. This experimental study is equal to the prior except only two - priming manipulation and another stimulus. For the promotion focus condition, subjects had to write an essay using words such as profit, inspiration, pleasure, achievement, development, hedonic, change, pursuit, etc. For prevention, however, they had to use the words persistence, safety, protection, aversion, loss, responsibility, stability etc. The room for rent had common features (sunshine, facility, ventilation) and unique features (distance time and building state). These attributes implied various levels and valence for replication of the prior experiment. Our hypothesis was supported repeatedly in the results, and the interaction effects were significant between regulatory focus and common features. Thus, these studies showed the dual effects of common features on consumer choice for a no-choice option. Adding common features may enhance or mitigate no-choice, contradictory as it may sound. Under a prevention focus, adding common features is likely to enhance the no-choice ratio because of increasing mental conflict; under the promotion focus, it is prone to shrink the ratio perhaps because of a "confirmation bias." The research has practical and theoretical implications for marketers, who may need to consider common features carefully in a practical display context according to consumer segmentation (i.e., promotion vs. prevention focus.) Theoretically, the results suggest some meaningful moderator variable between common features and no-choice in that the effect on no-choice option is partly dependent on a regulatory focus. This variable corresponds not only to a chronic perspective but also a situational perspective in our hypothesis domain. Finally, in light of some shortcomings in the research, such as overlooked attribute importance, low ratio of no-choice, or the external validity issue, we hope it influences future studies to explore the little-known world of the "no-choice option."

Improvement on the Managerial Method of Price Fluctuation System (물가변동제도 운영방식 개선방안)

  • Lee, Jae-Seob;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2011
  • There are several causes to recalculate the contract amount in public construction projects. Among them, the escalation clause was introduced in 1969 and now the condition to recalculate the cost is effective after 90 days from the date of contract and the rate of fluctuation should be more than 3% from the date of bidding. The two calculation methods for the rate of fluctuation are item-adjustment and index-adjustment. According to the results of investigation into 4 public institutions and 163 projects, all of them have used the method of index-adjustment and the rate of projects that spend over 6 months obtaining the approval of contract amount adjustment is more than 90%. The reason for spending lots of time is caused by problems of the calculation method on the price fluctuation rate. Therefore, it is necessary that the calculation method should be diversified to cope with the problems and a option of the builder should be expanded as well. Furthermore, if the way to apply correction factors to construction price index and average index based on the producer and consumer price index made by the bank of Korea is added, then the duration will be reduced without additional expenses. This study proposed the diversification of the calculation method using price fluctuation rate and builders' expanded options as improvement on the managerial method of Price Fluctuation System for the prompt and efficient contract amount adjustment.

Estimation of Reasonable Price of Battery Energy Storage System for Electricity Customers Demand Management (전력소비자 수요관리용 전지전력저장시스템의 적정 가격 산정)

  • Kim, Seul-Ki;Cho, Kyeong-Hee;Kim, Jong-Yul;Kim, Eung-Sang
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.10
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    • pp.1390-1396
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    • 2013
  • The paper estimated the reasonable market price of lead-acid battery energy storage system (BESS) intended for demand management of electricity customers. As time-of-use (TOU) tariffs have extended to a larger number of customers and gaps in the peak and off-peak rates have gradually risen, deployment of BESS has been highly needed. However, immature engineering techniques, lack of field experiences and high initial investment cost have been barriers to opening up ESS markets. This paper assessed electricity cost that BESS operation could save for customers and, based on the possible cost savings, estimated reasonable prices at which BESSs could become a more prospective option for demand management of customers. Battery scheduling was optimized to maximize the electricity cost savings that BESS would possibly achieve under TOU tariffs conditions. Basic economic factors such as payback period and return on investment were calculated to determine reasonable market prices. Actual load data of 12 industrial customers were used for case studies.

Effect of Home Network on Housing Selection (홈네트워크가 주택선택에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Jae-Ho;Cho, Su-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.144-152
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    • 2007
  • The home network service which has been set up in the high price residential-commercial composition building of high price is supplied in the general apartment plentifully recently. But it has been supplied without accurate grasp under the aim of the most up-to-date IT industry and the convenient characteristic of life. In this research we research the present condition of network service in domestic and analyze the recognition degree of network service and the need using survey method. We find that the recognition degree is very high and a main considerable factor to purchase a house. However they prefer to be supplied as option rather than as lump. The consumers are ready to pay an addition expense for home network. It explain that they expect considerably home network service and home network system should be developed as considering the various individual characteristics.