• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.108 no.4
• /
• pp.513-521
• /
• 2019

With rapid climate change and increasing global warming, the distribution of evergreen broad-leaved trees (EBLTs) is gradually expanding to the inland regions of Korea. The aim of the present study was to analyze the survival rate of 148 EBLT plantations measuring 180 ha and to determine the optimal plantation size that would help in coping with climate change in the warm, temperate climate zone of the Korean peninsula. For enhancing the reliability of our estimated survival model, we selected a set of 11 control variables that may have also influenced the survival rates of the EBLTs in the 148 plantations. The results of partial correlation analysis showed that the survival rate of 67.0±26.9 of the EBLTs in the initial plantation year was primarily correlated with plantation type by the crown closure of the upper story of the forest, wind exposure, and precipitation. For predicting the probability of survival by quantification theory, 148 plots were surveyed and analyzed with 11 environmental site factors. Survival rate was in the order of plantation type by the crown closure of upper story of the forest, wind exposure, total cumulative precipitation for two weeks prior to planting, and slope stiffness in the descending order of score range in the estimated survival model for the EBLTs with the fact that survival rate increased with shade rate of upper story to some extent.