• Survey Research
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.1-35
• /
• 2001

On the election day of the 16th Korea National Assembly. nationwide TV stations such as KBS. SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong. undermining general audience's confidence on the “scientific” surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. i) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• v.5 no.4
• /
• pp.285-301
• /
• 2018

There have been many studies that applied a data-driven analysis method to social media data, and some have even argued that this method can replace traditional polls. However, some other studies show contradictory results. There seems to be no consensus as to the methodology of data collection and analysis. But as social media-based election research continues and the data collection and analysis methodology keep developing, we need to review the key points of the controversy and to identify ways to go forward. Although some previous studies have reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of the social media-based election studies, they focused on predictive performance and did not adequately address other studies that utilized social media to address other issues related with public opinion during elections, such as public agenda or information diffusion. This paper tries to find out what information we can get by utilizing social media data and what limitations social media data has. Also, we review the various attempts to overcome these limitations. Finally, we suggest how we can best utilize social media data in understanding public opinion during elections.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.52-70
• /
• 2014

Gathering polling items about China and Japan from 1937 to 2011, we examine how Americans think about these two powerful East Asian countries. Our study investigates American attitudes from two perspectives. First, we analyze the content of polling items asked in the US about China and Japan to track changes in salient issues over a period of over 60 years. Second, by tracking repeated items, we show how American attitudes toward China and Japan have changed over time, both in long-term general favorability, and shorter-term perception of geopolitical, ideological, and economic threat in response to historical events.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 1998.10b
• /
• pp.36-37
• /
• 1998

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.153-162
• /
• 2012

We proposed a mixed-mode design with a landline survey and mobile survey as the solution for the problems of election opinion polls by the original telephone survey method, mostly with limited population coverage for young people not living at home and with lower efficiency in selecting valid voters. We numerically verified the applicability of the proposed dual frame survey by analyzing the preliminary opinion poll results of the Seoul mayor by-election of October 26 2011. This research achieved the result that relative standard errors were similar between a mobile RDD sample and landline RDD sample though the variance was bigger in the former. Though the combination of mobile RDD and landline RDD is not found to improve the forecast accuracy, it still is expected to have higher reliability for election polls by expanding the population coverage and compensating the weakness of each survey method.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.274-303
• /
• 2023

The third-person perception phenomenon can consistently be found in opinion poll news, but it remains unknown what determines the degree of the third-person perception (TPP) about specific election poll news. We investigated how respondents' preferred candidate's status in the poll affects the perceived impact of polling news on both themselves (PMI1) and on others (PMI3) as well as TPP (PMI3 - PMI1). We also examined the effect of subjective political knowledge and the perceived level of political knowledge of others on TPP. An online experiment was conducted in the context of a gubernatorial election in South Korea, in which the leading candidate in the poll and the question order (self-question first vs. other-question first) were manipulated. The results indicated that PMI1 and PMI3 were greater when the respondent's preferred candidate was leading in the poll. TPP did not differ depending on subjective knowledge, but it was greater when the others were non-experts (vs. experts). Lastly, question order was found to be a method factor that affected both PMI1 and PMI3. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

• Survey Research
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.153-174
• /
• 2011

This research aims to discuss the causes of inaccuracy in public opinion polls currently conducted in Korea. In particular, identifying the problems in sampling frame and sampling methods in political and social public opinion polls is an important question. Currently, most polling organizations operating in Korea are using phone number directories provided by Korea Telecom(KT) as its sampling frame for conducting most political polls. A critical problem of using a phone number directory as a sampling frame is that unlisted phone numbers can never be included in the sample. If a systematic difference in socio-demographic or politico-economic characteristics exists between the listed number using group and the unlisted group, using a phone number directory as a sampling frame cannot produce a sample that can represent the whole adult population in Korea. According to the poll result commissioned by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in January 2011, there are statistically significant differences in socio-demographic and politico-economic characteristics between those two groups, and those differences led to the differences in the presidential job approval rating and party support. Our findings include that the listed number using group is more pro-Grand National Party and show stronger support for the president than the unlisted group.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.38 no.1
• /
• pp.183-190
• /
• 2011

The paper is to analyze multi-attributes for expanding new renewable energy in agricultural sectors which have environmental, technical, economic, and social factors consisting of 15 attributes which have both positive and negative impacts. We applied the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to data from opinion polls. As a result of the AHP survey, the overall results indicate that the respondents more weight on economical factor than environmental, technical, and social factors for expanding new renewable energy. At the lowest level, a comparison of individual 15 attributes within three factors shows that fixed cost highest in multi-attributes, followed by operating cost, technical superiority. To achieve the public acceptance about expanding new renewable energy in agricultural sectors, the policy-makers should take all relevant factors into account through the decision-making process by the public opinions.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.2873-2881
• /
• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• Strategy21
• /
• s.34
• /
• pp.93-127
• /
• 2014

During the four years following the sinking of the Cheonan frigate in 2010, the South Korean public opinion has seen changes in four basic ways. First, public polls with respect to the cause of the sinking show that 70% of the people consider North Korea as the culprit, while 20% maintain that it was not an act carried out by North Korea. Second, the opinions relative to the cause of the incident seem to vary according to age difference, generational difference, and educational difference. From 2011, people in their 20s showed 10% increase in regarding North Korea as the responsible party. People in their 30s and 40s still have a tendency not to believe the result of the investigation carried out by the combined military and civilian group. Third, the most prominent issue that arose aftermath of the Cheonan incident is the fact that political inclination and policy preference are influencing the scientific determination of the cause. In other words, scientific and logical approach is lacking in the process of determining the factual basis for the cause. This process is compromised by the inability of the parties concerned in sorting out what is objective and what is personal opinion. This confused state of affairs makes it difficult to carry on a healthy, productive debate. Fourth, rumors, propaganda, and disinformation generated by pro-North Korea Labor Party groups in the internet and SNS are causing considerable impact in forming the public opinion. Proposed Strategy 1. The administration can ascertain public trust by accurately determining the nature of the provocation based on accurate information in the early stages of the incident. 2. Education in scientific, logical, rational methodologyis needed at home, school, and workplace in order toenhance the people's ability to seek factual truths. 3. In secondary education, the values of freedom, human rights, democracy, and market economy must be reinforced. 4. It is necessary for the educational system to teach the facts of North Korea just as they are. 5. Fundamental strength of free democratic system must be reinforced. The conservative, mainstream powers must recognize the importance of self-sacrifice and societal duties. The progressive political parties must sever themselves from those groups that take instructions from North Korea's Labor Party. The progressives must pursue values that are based on fundamental human rights for all. 6. Korean unification led by South Korea is the genuine means to achieve peace in a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. The administration must recognize that this unification initiative is the beginning of the common peace and prosperity in the Far East Asia, and must actively pursue international cooperation in this regard.