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Forecasting daily peak load by time series model with temperature and special days effect (기온과 특수일 효과를 고려하여 시계열 모형을 활용한 일별 최대 전력 수요 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Jin Young;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.161-171
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    • 2019
  • Varied methods have been researched continuously because the past as the daily maximum electricity demand expectation has been a crucial task in the nation's electrical supply and demand. Forecasting the daily peak electricity demand accurately can prepare the daily operating program about the generating unit, and contribute the reduction of the consumption of the unnecessary energy source through efficient operating facilities. This method also has the advantage that can prepare anticipatively in the reserve margin reduced problem due to the power consumption superabundant by heating and air conditioning that can estimate the daily peak load. This paper researched a model that can forecast the next day's daily peak load when considering the influence of temperature and weekday, weekend, and holidays in the Seasonal ARIMA, TBATS, Seasonal Reg-ARIMA, and NNETAR model. The results of the forecasting performance test on the model of this paper for a Seasonal Reg-ARIMA model and NNETAR model that can consider the day of the week, and temperature showed better forecasting performance than a model that cannot consider these factors. The forecasting performance of the NNETAR model that utilized the artificial neural network was most outstanding.

Changes in Exhibitions on the History of Balhae in Russian Museums and the Characteristics of Exhibition Narratives - with the focus on the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Culture "The Vladimir K. Arseniev Museum and Reserve of Far East History" - (러시아 박물관의 발해사 전시 변화와 전시 내러티브의 특징 - 아르세니예프 V.K. 국립극동역사보호지구 통합박물관을 중심으로 -)

  • JEONG Yoonhee
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.54-79
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this research is to fill the vacuum created by the tendency of bias towards China among the curators of Korean museums who plan exhibitions focusing on Balhae, and to share with researchers in the countries concerned various supplementary research materials that could deepen their understanding of the history of Balhae. These materials are based on analyses of the details of exhibitions about Balhae held in a particular Russian museum and the characteristics of and changes in the museum's operational policy. Thus, this research focuses mainly on the permanent and special exhibitions held by the Far East History Museum and Reserve, whose collection represents the archaeological achievements of Russia regarding the history of Balhae. The first part of the research focuses on the layout of the exhibitions presented by the museum and the museum's operational policy. It reveals that the museum's permanent exhibitions follow a diachronic arrangement of the local history, while the first and second special exhibitions featured exhibits that were selected from the collections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and arranged according to specific themes. It also examines the museum's policy for operating the exhibitions, focusing on the operational rules, the human resources deployed to run them, and the related educational and PR programs. The second part of the research examines such issues as local politics, economy, education and culture related to the exhibitions on Balhae's history, and connects them to the background and development of the exhibitions. This study reveals that the permanent exhibitions were intended to promote historical awareness of the local area by museum visitors, particularly those who visited the exhibitions while the city was hosting important events such as international summits. It also reveals that the museum's first special exhibition led to the promotion of Korea-Russia cooperation on exchanges in the fields of culture and tourism, whereas the second special exhibition involved no PR efforts or related events, which was probably due to the changes that have occurred in the relationship between Russia and its neighboring countries since then. The final part of the study focuses on the characteristic features of the exhibition narratives, and compares school textbooks on local history and history books for general readers with the contents of the exhibitions. The analysis of the narratives based on the development of time shows that the history of the Mohe (or Malgal) tribes has been combined with that of Balhae, while they are treated separately in school textbooks. As regards political history, the narrative was largely focused on officials in Balhae's central government rather than on Mohe warriors in the border areas. The maps of Balhae presented in the exhibitions highlight the importance of accumulating empirical data. As for the exhibition of material cultures, this study suggests that the museums should obtain more archaeological floral and faunal remains related with agriculture and hunting. It also points out that the narrative on the theme of foreign relations deals with the archaeological relics of Unified Silla together with those of the Turkic tribes. As for the theme of philosophy and culture, the narrative focused on the state ceremonies and rituals of Goguryeo, a theme that has attracted little attention among Korean academic circles and which consequently requires further study. In conclusion, this study is meaningful in that it suggests a number of research topics regarding the development of exhibitions and exhibition narratives about the history of Balhae by a prestigious Russian museum that specializes in this subject.

An Efficient TCP Buffer Tuning Algorithm based on Packet Loss Ratio(TBT-PLR) (패킷 손실률에 기반한 효율적인 TCP Buffer Tuning 알고리즘)

  • Yoo Gi-Chul;Kim Dong-kyun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.12C no.1 s.97
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2005
  • Tho existing TCP(Transmission Control Protocol) is known to be unsuitable for a network with the characteristics of high RDP(Bandwidth-Delay Product) because of the fixed small or large buffer size at the TCP sender and receiver. Thus, some trial cases of adjusting the buffer sizes automatically with respect to network condition have been proposed to improve the end-to-end TCP throughput. ATBT(Automatic TCP fluffer Tuning) attempts to assure the buffer size of TCP sender according to its current congestion window size but the ATBT assumes that the buffer size of TCP receiver is maximum value that operating system defines. In DRS(Dynamic Right Sizing), by estimating the TCP arrival data of two times the amount TCP data received previously, the TCP receiver simply reserves the buffer size for the next arrival, accordingly. However, we do not need to reserve exactly two times of buffer size because of the possibility of TCP segment loss. We propose an efficient TCP buffer tuning technique(called TBT-PLR: TCP buffer tuning algorithm based on packet loss ratio) since we adopt the ATBT mechanism and the TBT-PLR mechanism for the TCP sender and the TCP receiver, respectively. For the purpose of testing the actual TCP performance, we implemented our TBT-PLR by modifying the linux kernel version 2.4.18 and evaluated the TCP performance by comparing TBT-PLR with the TCP schemes of the fixed buffer size. As a result, more balanced usage among TCP connections was obtained.

Consideration of Policy on Qualification and In-service Education of Childcare Center Staff for Improving Educare Quality (보육교직원 자격과 재교육 정책 현황 분석 및 발전 방향 고찰)

  • Kim, Eui Hyang;Park, Jin Ok
    • Korean Journal of Child Education & Care
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.129-145
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    • 2018
  • The main subjects of this study is to study the qualification and in-service education policies of the child care center staff and to suggest a desirable direction of policy. The main subjects of this study are child care staff policies and related laws. The results of this study shows that the philosophy, developmental psychology and some social backgrounds are the stantards required when designating the child care curriculum and essential subjects for attaining class 2 childcare teacher certificates. This study arises the needs of adjustment of the fields of the childcare curriculum contents, change between mandatory and elective subjects, and renewal of the subject title. The standards for competency in provision of childcare services of National Competency Standard(NCS) has to be considered in the adjustment process. The integrated teacher's certificate for teachers training system is needed in the reserve integration process. The systematization of the data and operating system is needed to manage the target of education efficiently, in order to develop childcare center staff's strengthening ability and professionalism. For in-service education, the diversification of the main body of operation, a periodical monitoring of the content, administrative and financial support are needed. Voluntary participation of in-service education, and the childcare center staffs professional development policy making supported by the government and parents is needed.

A Mathematical Model for Coordinated Multiple Reservoir Operation (댐군의 연계운영을 위한 수학적 모형)

  • Kim, Seung-Gwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.779-793
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    • 1998
  • In this study, for the purpose of water supply planning, we propose a sophisticated multi-period mixed integer programming model that can coordinate the behavior of multi-reservoir operation, minimizing unnecessary spill. It can simulate the system with operating rules which are self- generated by the optimization engine in the algorithm. It is an optimization model in structure, but it indeed simulates the coordinating behavior of multi-reservoir operation. It minimizes the water shortfalls in demand requirements, maintaining flood reserve volume, minimizing unnecessary spill, maximizing hydropower generation release, keeping water storage levels high for efficient hydroelectric turbine operation. This optimization model is a large scale mixed integer programming problem that consists of 3.920 integer variables and 68.658 by 132.384 node-arc incidence matrix for 28 years of data. In order to handle the enormous amount of data generated by a big mathematical model, the utilization of DBMS (data base management system)seems to be inevitable. It has been tested with the Han River multi-reservoir system in Korea, which consists of 2 large multipurpose dams and 3 hydroelectric dams. We demonstrated successfully that there is a good chance of saving substantial amount of water should it be put to use in real time with a good inflow forecasting system.

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A Study on the Effective Method to Producing Data for The ROKA Live Fire Training Range Safety (한국군 실 사격 훈련간 효율적인 안전지대 데이터 구축 방안 연구)

  • Lee, June-Sik;Choi, Bong-Wan;Oh, Hyun-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.64-77
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    • 2015
  • An effective method for produce munitions effectiveness data is to calculate weapon effectiveness indices in the US military's Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manuals (JMEM) and take advantage of the damage evaluation model (GFSM) and weapon Effectiveness Evaluation Model (Matrix Evaluator). However, a study about the Range Safety that can be applied in the live firing exercises is very insufficient in the case of ROK military. The Range Safety program is an element of the US Army Safety Program, and is the program responsible for developing policies and guidance to ensure the safe operation of live-fire ranges. The methodology of Weapon Danger Zone (WDZ) program is based on a combination of weapon modeling/simulation data and actual impact data. Also, each WDZ incorporates a probability distribution function which provides the information necessary to perform a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the relative risk of an identified profile. A study of method to establish for K-Range Safety data is to develop manuals (pamphlet) will be a standard to ensure the effective and safe fire training at the ROK military education and training and environmental conditions. For example, WDZs are generated with the WDZ tool as part of the RMTK (Range Managers Tool Kit) package. The WDZ tool is a Geographic Information System-based application that is available to operational planners and range safety manager of Army and Marine Corps in both desktop and web-based versions. K-Range Safety Program based on US data is reflected in the Korean terrain by operating environments and training doctrine etc, and the range safety data are made. Thus, verification process on modified variables data is required. K-Range Safety rather than being produced by a single program, is an package safety activities and measures through weapon danger zone tool, SRP (The Sustainable Range Program), manuals, doctrine, terrain, climate, military defence M&S, weapon system development/operational test evaluation and analysis to continuously improving range safety zone. Distribution of this K-range safety pamphlet is available to Army users in electronic media only and is intended for the standing army and army reserve. Also publication and distribution to authorized users for marine corps commands are indicated in the table of allowances for publications. Therefore, this study proposes an efficient K-Range Safety Manual producing to calculate the danger zones that can be applied to the ROK military's live fire training by introducing of US Army weapons danger zone program and Range Safety Manual

Analysis on the Ore Recovery from Operating the Room & Pillar Hybrid Mining Method in the Korean Limestone Mine (국내 석회석 광산에서 주방식하이브리드 채광법의 채수율 분석)

  • Kwon, Dukjoon;Kim, Jaedong
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.161-171
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    • 2017
  • Demand for high-grade limestone is increasing, but the production in the domestic mines has been limited due to the lack of systematic development plans and efforts to develop mining technology to improve the recovery ratio, transition to high-cost underground mining due to increasing social awareness of environmental protection, and the smallness of the domestic mining industry, etc. In this study in connection with this issue, an analysis on the recovery change by improvement of mining method was executed. 3D modeling technique was used to construct a 3D model. 3D model includes the geological structure, the limestone ore body and the underground pits and tunnels excavated at the Daepyeong District of Daesung MDI Donghae District. By using the 3D model, measured resources, reserves and ore recovery were evaluated from the results of pilot operation of the room and pillar hybrid mining method, which is a variant of room and pillar mining method. These results were compared with those obtained from the conventional mining method. The ore recovery obtained by hybrid mining method was found to be up to 71.6%, showing about 26%p. increase compared with the case of conventional mining method.

Analysis of the Impact of Key Design Elements for the EU-ETS Phase 4 on the K-ETS in the Future (EU ETS 4기의 주요 제도 설계가 향후 국내 배출권거래제 운영에 미칠 영향 분석)

  • Son, Insung;Kim, Dong Koo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.129-167
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    • 2021
  • The emission trading system is an essential policy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and converting low-carbon society. EU ETS is a good benchmark that is ahead of Korea's emission trading system in terms of operating period and design know-how. Therefore, this study focused on the key design elements of EU ETS phase 4 such as total emission allowances issued (Cap), free allocation method, carbon leakage list, market stability reserve, and innovation supporting system. In addition, we analyzed the impact of key design elements and their changes during EU ETS Phase 1 to 4 on the design and operation of Korea emission trading system in the future. First of all, the expected impact on the design of Korea emission trading system is to increase three demands: preparing benchmark renewal plans, establishing criteria for selecting free allocation industries that reflect domestic industrial structure and characteristics and introducing two-stage evaluations for free allocation industries, and preparing specific plan to support innovation and industries using allowance auction revenues. The next three impacts on the operation of Korea emission trading system are the increased needs for objective and in-depth impact assessment of plan and amendments, provision of system stability and response opportunities by quickly confirming plan and amendments prior to the implementation, and coordination of the emission trading system governance and stakeholder participation encouragement.