• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.167-197
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• 2017

I build a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the effect of a heterogeneous wage contract between regular and temporary workers on a macroeconomic volatility in a financially fragile economy. The imperfect financial market condition is captured by a quadratic financial adjustment cost for borrowing foreign assets, and the labor market friction is captured by a Nash bargaining process which is only available to the regular workers when they negotiate their wages with the firms while the temporary workers are given their wage which simply equals the marginal cost. As a result of impulse responsesto a domestic productivity shock, the higher elasticity of substitution between two types of workers and the lower weight on the regular workers in the firm's production process induce the higher volatilities in most variables. This is reasoned that the higher substitutability creates more volatile wage determination process while the lower share of the regular workers weakens their Nash bargaining power in the contract process.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.161-206
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• 2013

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.239-261
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• 2011

생산성의 순환성문제는 거시경제학의 중요한 쟁점들 중의 하나이며 특히 경기변동이론에서 본질적인 개념으로 이해되고 있다. 생산성의 순환성문제에 관한 논의는 1990년대부터 생산성의 경기순행성(procyclicality)을 설명하려는 이론과 실증연구를 통하여 활발하게 진행되어 오고 있다. 솔로우 잔차항(Solow' residual)을 이용한 총요소생산성의 측정방식은 Solow (1957) 이후 다양하게 발전해왔다. 기본적인 솔로우 잔차항에 근거한 총요소생산성의 추정은 세 가지 점을 고려하지 않은 단점을 지니고 있다. 즉 표준적인 솔로우 잔차항에 근거한 총요소생산성은 완전경쟁시장, 규모의 보수불변 그리고 자원 의 완전고용을 전제로 추정되기 때문에 현실적으로 시장지배력(market power), 규모의 보수 증가, 노동과 자본의 유보문제 (labor and capital hoarding)를 고려하지 못하였다. 본 논문은 Hall(1990)과 Basu(1997)의 모형을 개방경제모형으로 확장하여 총요소생산성을 측정하고 한국경제의 생산성의 순응성 문제를 분석하였다. 분석기간은 1975-2010이며 분석되는 산업은 제조업과 전기가스와 운수통신의 서비스 산업이다. 분석결과, 요소이용률을 고려하고 원유수입물가지수를 도구변수로 사용한 2단계최소자승법에 의해서 추정된 총요소생산성은 제조산업과 전기가스에서 경기순행성(procyclicality)을 나타내고 있으며 요소이용율을 적용하는 경우, 경기순응적인 요소보다 경기역행적인 요소가 제거되었음을 밝히고 있다.