• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2019

Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.93-107
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• 2014

In this paper, we report what we have observed with regard to user-perspective issue clustering based on multi-layered two-mode network analysis. This work is significant in the context of data collection by companies about customer needs. Most companies have failed to uncover such needs for products or services properly in terms of demographic data such as age, income levels, and purchase history. Because of excessive reliance on limited internal data, most recommendation systems do not provide decision makers with appropriate business information for current business circumstances. However, part of the problem is the increasing regulation of personal data gathering and privacy. This makes demographic or transaction data collection more difficult, and is a significant hurdle for traditional recommendation approaches because these systems demand a great deal of personal data or transaction logs. Our motivation for presenting this paper to academia is our strong belief, and evidence, that most customers' requirements for products can be effectively and efficiently analyzed from unstructured textual data such as Internet news text. In order to derive users' requirements from textual data obtained online, the proposed approach in this paper attempts to construct double two-mode networks, such as a user-news network and news-issue network, and to integrate these into one quasi-network as the input for issue clustering. One of the contributions of this research is the development of a methodology utilizing enormous amounts of unstructured textual data for user-oriented issue clustering by leveraging existing text mining and social network analysis. In order to build multi-layered two-mode networks of news logs, we need some tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used not only SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module and cluster module for textual data analysis, but also NetMiner 4 for network visualization and analysis. Our approach for user-perspective issue clustering is composed of six main phases: crawling, topic analysis, access pattern analysis, network merging, network conversion, and clustering. In the first phase, we collect visit logs for news sites by crawler. After gathering unstructured news article data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from each news article in order to build an article-news network. For simplicity, 100 topics are extracted from 13,652 articles. In the third phase, a user-article network is constructed with access patterns derived from web transaction logs. The double two-mode networks are then merged into a quasi-network of user-issue. Finally, in the user-oriented issue-clustering phase, we classify issues through structural equivalence, and compare these with the clustering results from statistical tools and network analysis. An experiment with a large dataset was performed to build a multi-layer two-mode network. After that, we compared the results of issue clustering from SAS with that of network analysis. The experimental dataset was from a web site ranking site, and the biggest portal site in Korea. The sample dataset contains 150 million transaction logs and 13,652 news articles of 5,000 panels over one year. User-article and article-issue networks are constructed and merged into a user-issue quasi-network using Netminer. Our issue-clustering results applied the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm and Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), and are consistent with the results from SAS clustering. In spite of extensive efforts to provide user information with recommendation systems, most projects are successful only when companies have sufficient data about users and transactions. Our proposed methodology, user-perspective issue clustering, can provide practical support to decision-making in companies because it enhances user-related data from unstructured textual data. To overcome the problem of insufficient data from traditional approaches, our methodology infers customers' real interests by utilizing web transaction logs. In addition, we suggest topic analysis and issue clustering as a practical means of issue identification.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.67-88
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• 2018

Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.