• Title/Summary/Keyword: Oil Prices

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The Evaluation of Long-Term Generation Portfolio Considering Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 장기 전원 포트폴리오의 평가)

  • Chung, Jae-Woo;Min, Dai-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2012
  • This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

A preliminary Study on Development of Overseas Construction Big Issues Based on Analysis of Big Data (빅 데이터 분석을 통한 해외건설 빅 이슈 개발에 관한 기초연구)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo;Han, Jae-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.93-94
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    • 2017
  • This study have derived the big issue of overseas construction through big data analysis. For identification of big issues on overseas construction, domestic online articles, 30 daily newspapers like the JoongAng Ilbo, 7 construction related articles including construction economy and 1,759 local newspapers and small media companies were analyzed from October 1st, 2015 to September 30th, 2016. 13,884 cases in total were used for big data analyses and big issue candidates were identified. The analysis result is as shown below. First, looking into major issues on overseas construction for a year, construction orders in the Middle East decreased because of the drop in oil prices. Accordingly, there were discussions on concerns and crises we may face as profitabilities worsened in overseas construction. Second, analyzing main concern based on 8 key words on overseas construction among construction issues for the last one year, it was found as following: Region (29.4%), Business environment (21.4%), Group (15.8%), Profitability (14.5%), Policy and Institution (7.8%), Market environment (4.2%), Business (project) (4.15%), and Education (3.2%). Third, among 30 issues on 8 key words, 10 key issues that are likely to spread and continue were identified. Then, a semantic network map among key words and centrality were analyzed.

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Trends of Prefabricated Joints and their Jointing Techniques for EHV XLPE-insulated Power Cables (초고압 XLPE 전력케이블용 Prefabricated Joint 및 접속기술 동향)

  • Kim, Y.;Seong, J.K.;Han, C.S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.07e
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    • pp.1608-1610
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    • 1998
  • An oil-filled paper-insulated power cable and a XLPE-insulated power cable have been mainly applied as an extra-high-voltage underground power cable. But in recent the XLPE cable has been applied more widely than the OF cable, because of its advantages, such as the low-cost and simple installation. In general two types, molded and prefabricated, of straight joints are applied for the XLPE cables. For a tape-molded joint, one of molded joints, its electrical properties are excellent, but it has some disadvantages, such as a long working time. high skill of workers and the high cost of jointing equipments. For a prefabricated joint, developed and applied in Europe and Japan, its working time is short, its jointing procedures are simple, and its quality control is easy, but its prices are very high. In Korea the development of a compression-type PJ will be finished in the near future, and studies of its jointing techniques and equipments is actively going on. This paper describes the design and construction of the PJ, the jointing procedures and techniques for the PJ, and its future trends.

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Properties of Lightweight Foamed Concrete According to Animality Protein Foaming Agent Type (동물성 기포제 종류별 경량기포 콘크리트의 특성)

  • Lim, Jeong-Jun;Lee, Sang-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.34-35
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, the construction industry has also applied the dry method that can be assembled in the field by industrialization and factory production, which is free from climatic effects and can reduce the cost due to mass production and simplify the work in the field. Among the building materials used in this dry method, ALC products are made by mixing calcium oxide, gypsum, cement, and water in silica and putting them in an autoclave to create voids in the interior through steam curing at high temperature and pressure. But it requires curing cycle conditions of warming, isothermal, and temperature curing. It depends on the performance of the product depending on the curing conditions, the economical efficiency due to high oil prices, the emission of greenhouse gases by the use of fossil fuels. Experiments were conducted to select an appropriate animal protein foam for lightweight foamed concrete block which was cured by applying a prefilling method to replace existing ALC products. As a result of investigating the characteristics of lightweight foamed concrete by type of animal protein foam, it is considered that FP3 is most suitable for manufacturing lightweight foamed concrete block.

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The Advanced Case Study for Investigation on Application of BIPV on Tall Building (초고층빌딩의 BIPV 적용성 검토를 위한 선진 사례 조사)

  • Lee, Jong-Min;Seok, Ho-Tae;Yang, Jeong-Hoon
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.155-160
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    • 2009
  • The increasingly high prices for oil, the exhaustion of fossil fuels as well as concern about global warming are driving rapid growth of alternative sources of energy in the world. The active solution for global environment and exhaustion of energy sources is to develop and popularize the technologies to use natural energy such as sunlight, wind, and water. PV(Photovoltaic) modules are efficient devices that has been considered a logical material for use in buildings. Recent advanced BIPV(Building Integrated PV) technology have rapidly made PVs suitable for direct integration into construction in the world. Recently, building has been higher and higher. Tall buildings have many advantages for BIPV such as wide facade area and no shading effect by the surrounding buildings. However. BIPV has not been applied for tall building facade yet. Therefore, the purpose of the research is to develop suitable BIPV for tall buildings and to put these technologies to practical use. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to investigate unification of BIPV to curtain wall to apply BIPV on tall building through research into advanced application of overseas BIPV cases.

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Economical Analysis of a Small Capacity Heat Pump utilizing Heat Sources of Air, Geothermal and Underground Water Tank using Dynamic Simulation (동특성 시뮬레이션을 이용한 공기, 지열 및 지하 저수조 열원 소형 열펌프의 경제성 분석)

  • Yang, Chul-Ho;Kim, Youngil;Chung, Kwang-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Geothermal and Hydrothermal Energy
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2012
  • Due to reinforcement of international environment regulation and high oil prices, interest in renewable energy is growing. Countries participating in UNFCCC are continuously putting efforts in reducing greenhouse gas after enforcing Kyoto Protocol into effect on Feb, 2005. Energy used in buildings, which relies heavily on fossil fuel accounts for about 24% of total energy consumption. In this study, air, geothermal and water source heat pump systems for an 322 $m^2$ auditorium in an office building is simulated using TRNSYS version 17 for comparing energy consumptions. The results show that energy consumptions of air, geothermal and water source heat pumps are 14,485, 10,249, and 10,405 kWh, respectively. Annual equal payments which consider both initial and running costs become 5,734,521, 6,403,257 and 5,596,058 Won. Thus, water source heat pump is the best economical choice.

A Study on Ships Optimal Speed, Deadweight and Their Economy (On the Operations of Common Bulk Carriers Under the Various Managerial Circumstances of Shipping Companies) (상선의 최적속력 및 적화중량톤과 경제성에 관한 연구 ( 일반살적화물선에 있어서 해운운영상의 여건변동을 중심으로 ))

  • 양시권
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.65-113
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    • 1983
  • A lot of studies of ship's economy are on the traditional fields such asreducing propulsion resistance, raising cargo handling rates and lessening building consts, but there are few researches on the merchant ship's economy concerning their deadweights and speeds according to shipping companies managerial cercumstances. Contrary to the contemporary trend that "the bigger, the better, if the cargo handling rate could increased sufficiently to hold down port time to that rate of smmaler vessels", this paper demonstrates the existence of certain limits in ship's size and speed according to the coditions of the freight rates, voyage distances, cargo handing rates, prices of fuel oil, interst rates etc. Fom the curves of criteria contour for various ship's deadweights and speeds which are depicted from the gird search method, one can get the costs and the yearly profit rates under the conditiions of large volume with long term contracts for the transportation of bulk cargoes. In estimating ship's transportation economy, the auther takes the position that the profit rate method is properer than the cost method, and introduces the calculation table of the voyage profit rate index. The use of the criteria contours will be of help to ship owners in determining the size and speed of the ship which will be built or purchased and serve in a certain trade route.

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A Study on Dry Bulkers' Optimal Deadweight and Speed under Certain Available Cargo Lot Sizes (선적화물량에 따른 살적화물선의 최적적화중량준 및 속력의 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이명진
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-48
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    • 1984
  • The economy of ship's size and speed is affected by the freight rates, sailing distances, cargo handling rates, fuel oil prices and even interest rates of the borrowed funds. It can be a step more powerful measures if the economic evaluation model takes in a cargo lot size which prevails in the shipping markets. This paper has dealt with hypothetical cargo lots which happen to the market with uniform distribution in probability. The evaluation models are either profit maximization method or cost minimization method. The former compares among different voyages in profitability to the invested funds, the later defines the transportation efficiency in ton-mile unit and be used in comparing two or more transportation means. This paper adopted both of above methods to derive out ships economical evaluation contours for the various ship's speed and deadweight for certain cargo lot sizes, which can be used as important managerial decision data in purchasing ships or selecting a most profitable one among the proposed voyages. This evaluation contours will also be efficiently used in appraising so called "handy size ships" in connection with port water depth and conditions of voyage tracks.ge tracks.

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A Study on the Ballast Control System for Offshore Plant (Offshore Plant용 발라스트 제어 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jin Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.2944-2951
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the offshore plant has been revived by rise in oil prices and energy consumption. Due to the external environmental impact, the ballast system is essential for an offshore plant. The ballast system for the existing offshore plant, consist of pump 6EA and Ballast tank 4EA, is performed by the tilt control. However, this system is vulnerable to a failure due to the fact that a lot of equipment needs to be installed within the system. In this paper, a new concept of ballast system and the control algorithm based on IT is proposed. Simulator has been created to test the proposed system and algorithm, and as a result, it has proven that it is controlled stably.

A Study on International Passenger and Freight Forecasting Using the Seasonal Multivariate Time Series Models (계절형 다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 국제항공 여객 및 화물 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Ji-Seong;Huh, Nam-Kyun;Kim, Sahm-Yong;Hur, Hee-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.473-481
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    • 2010
  • Forecasting for air demand such as international passengers and freight has been one of the main interests for air industries. This research has mainly focus on the comparison of the performances of the multivariate time series models. In this paper, we used real data such as exchange rates, oil prices and export amounts to predict the future demand on international passenger and freight.