• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ohlson model

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The Effect of Research and Development Expenditure on Corporate Value (연구개발비 지출이 기업가치에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구: KSE와 KOSDAQ 업체를 대상으로)

  • Lee, Hak-Young;Ha, Kyu-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.822-830
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    • 2008
  • We aim to confirm empirically that a corporate's R&D expenditure effect positively on its value. As a result of the regression analysis on financial statements of KSE and KOSDAQ enterprises, the sum of R&D expenditure effects positively on corporate value. Moreover, we have the result that R&D expenditure appropriated as cost has more effect on corporate value than the expenditure appropriated as asset.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

COVID-19 Lockdown, Earnings Manipulation and Stock Market Sensitivity: An Empirical Study in Iraq

  • ALJAWAHERI, Bushra Abdul Wahhab;OJAH, Hassnain Kadhem;MACHI, Ahmed Hussein;ALMAGTOME, Akeel Hamza
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.707-715
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    • 2021
  • This article examines the potential impact of the Covid-19 Lockdown on earnings manipulation and stock market sensitivity to earnings announcements. It also explores the effects of earnings manipulation after the COVID-19 outbreak on the share price sensitivity to the earnings disclosures. The study uses a quantitative method to analyze the financial data consisting of 87 firms listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the period from 2018 to 2020, which constitutes a total of (174 observations). We used Ohlson (1995) model to estimate financial market reaction and sensitivity to earnings manipulation fluctuations and accounting information. The results show that companies practice earnings manipulation to maintain earnings over a time series, which means a negative impact of earnings manipulation on all earnings measures' value relevance (EPS, BVS, and CFS). Accordingly, earnings manipulation negatively influences investor behavior in the financial market, based mainly on financial reporting. The value relevance of financial reports has also decreased because of the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic Lockdown. These results reflect a long-term adverse impact of earnings manipulation on investor behavior and financial statements reliability.

Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and Accrual Anomaly (재무분석가의 현금흐름예측과 발생액 이상현상)

  • Kim, Jong-Hyun;Chang, Seok-Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.137-151
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate whether financial analysts' cash flow forecasts mitigate the accrual anomaly. In addition, we examine whether the more accurate analysts' cash flow forecasts are the greater the decline of the accrual anomaly. Design/methodology/approach - Data used in the empirical tests are extracted through KIS-VALUE and FN-GUIDE, and the sample consists of firms listed on Korea Stock Exchange for 7 years from 2005 to 2011. We test the hypotheses using multiple regression analysis and we also estimate the regressions with the decile ranks of the explanatory variables to minimize the influence of outliers. Findings - We have failed to capture evidence that the provision of financial analysts' cash flow forecasts itself reduces the accrual anomaly. However, we find the accrual anomaly to be less severe when financial analysts provide more accurate cash flow forecasts. The findings are consistent in the regression models with the decile ranks as well as in the robustness tests that controlled the accruals quality. Research implications or Originality - This study contributes to the expansion of related studies in the Korea by providing empirical evidence partially that the financial analysts' cash flow forecasts mitigate the accrual anomaly.

Financial Performance Reporting, IFRS Implementation, and Accounting Information: Evidence from Iraqi Banking Sector

  • HAMEEDI, Karrar Saleem;AL-FATLAWI, Qayssar Ali;ALI, Maher Naji;ALMAGTOME, Akeel Hamza
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.1083-1094
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    • 2021
  • This paper explores the effect of IFRS on the financial performance of Iraqi commercial banks. It also investigates the value significance of financial performance statements using the Ohlson model, which has been used for the stock value relevance test in a number of studies. Using a sample of 66 listed banks on the Iraq Stock Exchange over three years of IFRS pre-adoption (2011-2013) and three years of IFRS post-adoption (2016-2018), we find financial performance components EPS and BVS value relevant to the stock returns. The findings also indicate that the implementation of IFRS has a major positive effect on the value relevance of the BVS, while the adoption of IFRS does not have a significant impact on the value relevance of the EPS reported by Iraqi banks. Our results indicate that the market value of the bank rises dramatically with enhanced financial performance reporting. In addition, the implementation of IFRS has a major effect on the financial performance measures and the value relevance of financial reporting in the Iraqi banking sector. This paper adds to previous value relevance literature and IFRS by throwing light on the banking sector in a developing country that has recently moved from applying local accounting standards to IFRS.

The Effect of R&D Expenditures on Market Value of the Firm: Focusing on Distribution Industry (연구개발투자 지출이 기업의 시장가치에 미치는 영향: 유통산업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoe
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - In recent digital information society, the most important factor of to increase the firm value of the distribution company is not the activity to increase the sales through the general advertisement of the unspecified majority by purchasing the finished product, but to grasp the needs of the consumers and to develop a new distribution platform that connects producers and consumers directly through consumer-tailored advertisements centering on e-commerce. Therefore each company in the distribution industry is spending a lot on research and development investment to innovate the distribution technology and distribution system, and the research and development investment expenditures can affect firm value. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of research and development investment expenditures in the distribution industry on market value of the firm. Research design, data, and methodology - As a research method, the sample firms are those which are listed on korea stock exchange market from 2011 to 2017 and the research model is Ohlson(1995) model, which is a representative valuation model using accounting information. This study analyzes the effect of distribution company's research and development investment expenditures and advertising expenditures on market value of the firm Results - The results of empirical analysis show that research and development investment expenditures for developing new distribution technology and advertising expenditures for promoting sales in the distribution company are all positively related to the market value of firm. Therefore, in describing market value of the distribution company, it is shown that the research and development investment expenditures and advertising expenditures together with the net asset and net profit are the important accounting information that explains the market value of firm. This result show that investment expenditures on research and development for the innovation of distribution technology of distribution company creates intangible intellectual assets and increases market value of the firm. Conclusions - The result of this study shows that research and development investment expenditures for the new distribution technology as well as the spending for the advertisement in the future is a very important investment expenditures that can increase the market value of the distribution company.

Analysis of Corporate Value Relevance Form of Tax Avoidance (조세회피의 기업가치 관련성 형태 분석)

  • Gee-Jung Kwon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.233-254
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study aims to verify whether the effect of tax avoidance on corporate value is non-linear in the Korean financial markets. Design/methodology/approach - This study believes that the cause of the inconsistent empirical analysis results of previous studies that verified the relationship between tax avoidance and firm value may be an error in assuming linearity, and verifies whether a nonlinear relationship exists. The sample company in this study is a December settlement corporation listed on the Korean stock market, and the analysis period is from 2000 to 2021. In the empirical analysis model, Tobin's Q is used as a proxy for corporate value, tax avoidance is used as the main independent variable, and a regression model is designed with corporate size, growth rate, and debt ratio set as control variables. Findings - As a result of the empirical analysis, it can be confirmed that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between tax avoidance and corporate value. In the additional analysis using Ohlson (1995) firm valuation model for the robustness of the results of the empirical analysis, the same nonlinear value relationship between tax avoidance can be confirmed. Research implications or Originality - This study is considered to be meaningful in that it verifies the non-linear relationship of tax avoidance, which has not been attempted in previous studies. The meaning of the inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship presented in this study is that corporate tax avoidance acts as a factor that increases corporate value up to a certain level, but rather becomes a factor that decreases corporate value when it exceeds a critical point. These results are expected to provide new perspectives and perspectives on tax avoidance to companies belonging to the Korean capital market.

The Impact of Sales Revenue on Value Relevance in the Distribution Corporate (유통기업 매출액의 기업가치 관련성)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoe
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - For distribution corporate, the method of recognizing sales revenue may be different depending on the type of distribution transaction. Until the change in accounting standards for revenue recognition was made in 2002, the distribution corporate recognized the full amount of sales of goods regardless of the type of transaction. However, in accordance with accounting standards for revenue recognition, which began to be applied in 2003, distribution corporate differ in sales revenue recognition by transaction type. The Purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of sales revenue on the corporate value after the change of the revenue recognition accounting standards. Research design, data, and methodology - We selected a comprehensive wholesale and retail corporate listed on Korea Exchange. The research model extends the Ohlson(1995) model and regresses whether sales revenue affecting the corporate value is discriminatory value relevance between the corporate affected by changes in accounting standards for revenue recognition and those not. Results - The results of the analysis are as follows. First, The average value of stock price, net asset per share, and earnings per share are all higher than those before the change of accounting standards for revenue recognition. However, the average value of sales per share is lower than that before the change of accounting standards for revenue recognition. Second, the relationship between corporate value and net asset per share, earnings per share and sales per share, the coefficient of net asset per share, earnings per share and sales per share are all statistically significant positive value. Therefore, in explaining corporate value, besides net asset per share and earnings per share, sales per share provides additional information. And the coefficient of interaction variable between accounting standard change and sales per share is a statistically significant positive value. This result indicating that after the change of the revenue recognition accounting standards the usefulness of sales revenue has increased. Conclusions - The change in accounting standards for revenue recognition led to a decrease in distribution corporate sales revenue but the higher the relevance of the corporate value of the sales revenue information. These results shows that the change of accounting standards that reflects the transaction type of retailers was a revision to increase the value relevance of sales revenue in valuation of corporate value.

A Study on the Transnational Performance of China's Enterprises

  • Wang, Jingnan;He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Currently, the economic globalization has become a common channel for China's enterprise to perform the international economic activities. Due to this background, this paper tries to analyze the influence of internationalization level on operation performance of enterprises. Research design, data, and Methodology - This paper aims at 296 companies going listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The data about the listed companies during the 12 years from 2005 to 2016 have been collected. Relevant theories, including the theory of comparative advantage, monopolistic advantage and product life cycle in developed countries as well as the small scale technology and state on localized technological capacities in developing countries, have been summarized to provide theoretical basis for the influence of international operation on operation performance of the enterprises. Moreover, the current status of international operation of China's enterprises, including the dynamic cause of the internationalization of China's enterprises, its competitive advantage and disadvantage as well as the interest and potential risk of the internationalization, have been also analyzed. Results - Via adopting the panel data to conduct an empirical analysis, It can be found that the relationship between international operation level and operation performance of China's enterprises can be expressed as the S-curve of declining, rising and declining again. Conclusions - This paper has taken the lead in using Ohlson corporate value model to fill the gap in the relevant researches in China. It can also provide guidance for the international operation of China's enterprises. Meanwhile, the two systems for international operation and performance evaluation index have been put forward. The performance of international operation can be classified as financial performance or corporate value so that the operation effect of those China's enterprises going abroad can be better evaluated.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.