• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ocean current prediction

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Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

Prediction on Mooring Tension & Motion Response Characteristics of a Floating Dock in Regular Waves (규칙파 중 플로팅 도크의 운동응답특성 및 계류장력 추정)

  • Oh, Young-Cheol;Gim, Ok-Sok;Ko, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.200-206
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    • 2013
  • The paper was investigated on the mooring forces(or tension) and motion response characteristics for a 8-point mooring floating dock in regular waves using a commercial code(AQWA). To achieve the aim of the research, a numerical simulation was adapted on an inner port environment condition, which the water depth is 10 meters, significant wave amplitude(1.05 m). wave period(3.85 sec), wind speed(20.21 m/s), wind and current direction ($90^{\circ}$), incident waves(${\chi}=180^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$ and $90^{\circ}$). The dimension of the numerical model is length(140 m), breadth(32 m), depth(14.6 m). The maximum length of a mooring line is 120m. We can expected that roll and pitch motions appeared in beam seas better than head sea. the mooring forces also indicated higher in bean seas than in head seas including wind forces.

Assessment of Assimilation Impact of Argo Float Observations in Marginal Seas around Korean Peninsula through Observing System Experiments (관측시스템 실험을 통한 한반도 근해 Argo 플로트 관측자료의 자료동화 효과 평가)

  • Choo, Sung-Ho;Chang, Pil-Hun;Hwang, Seung-On;Jo, Hyeong-Jun;Lee, Johan;Lee, Sang-Min;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Moon, Jae-Hong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2021
  • An Observing System Experiment (OSE) using Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GODAPS) was conducted to evaluate the assimilation impact of Argo floats, deployed by National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS/KMA), in marginal seas around Korean peninsula. A data denial experiment was run by removing Argo floats in the Yellow Sea and the East Sea from an operational run. The assimilation results show that Argo floats bring the positive impact on the analysis of ocean internal structure in both Yellow Sea and East Sea. In the East Sea, overall positive impact in the water temperature and salinity context is found, especially outstanding improvement from 300 to 500 m depth. In the Yellow sea, the assimilation impact on water temperature and salinity is also large within 50 m depth, especially greater impact than the East Sea in salinity. However, in the Yellow Sea, the influence of Argo floats tends to be restricted to the vicinity of Argo floats, because there was only one Argo float in the middle of the Yellow Sea during the experiment period. Given that the only limited number of Argo floats generally contribute in a positive way to the improvement of the GODAPS, further progress could be expected with adding more observations from Argo floats to current observing systems.

A study on collision strength assessment of a jack-up rig with attendant vessel

  • Ma, Kuk Yeol;Kim, Jeong Hwan;Park, Joo Shin;Lee, Jae Myung;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.241-257
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    • 2020
  • The rapid proliferation of oil/gas drilling and wind turbine installations with jack-up rig-formed structures increases structural safety requirements, due to the greater risks of operational collisions during use of these structures. Therefore, current industrial practices and regulations have tended to increase the required accidental collision design loads (impact energies) for jack-up rigs. However, the existing simplified design approach tends to be limited to the design and prediction of local members due to the difficulty in applying the increased uniform impact energy to a brace member without regard for the member's position. It is therefore necessary to define accidental load estimation in terms of a reasonable collision scenario and its application to the structural response analysis. We found by a collision probabilistic approach that the kinetic energy ranged from a minimum of 9 MJ to a maximum 1049 MJ. Only 6% of these values are less than the 35 MJ recommendation of DNV-GL (2013). This study assumed and applied a representative design load of 196.2 MN for an impact load of 20,000 tons. Based on this design load, the detailed design of a leg structure was numerically verified via an FE analysis comprising three categories: linear analysis, buckling analysis and progressive collapse analysis. Based on the numerical results from this analysis, it was possible to predict the collapse mode and position of each member in relation to the collision load. This study provided a collision strength assessment between attendant vessels and a jack-up rig based on probabilistic collision scenarios and nonlinear structural analysis. The numerical results of this study also afforded reasonable evaluation criteria and specific evaluation procedures.

Regional Realtime Ocean Tide and Storm-surge Simulation for the South China Sea (남중국해 지역 실시간 해양 조석 및 폭풍해일 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Kyeong Ok;Choi, Byung Ho;Lee, Han Soo;Yuk, Jin-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2018
  • The South China Sea (SCS) is a typical marginal sea characterized with the deep basin, shelf break, shallow shelf, many straits, and complex bathymetry. This study investigated the tidal characteristics and propagation, and reproduced typhoon-induced storm surge in this region using the regional real-time tide-surge model, which was based on the unstructured grid, resolving in detail the region of interest and forced by tide at the open boundary and by wind and air pressure at the surface. Typhoon Haiyan, which occurred in 2013 and caused great damage in the Philippines, was chosen as a case study to simulate typhoon's impact. Amplitudes and phases of four major constituents were reproduced reasonably in general, and the tidal distributions of four constituents were similar to the previous studies. The modelled tide seemed to be within the acceptable levels, considering it was difficult to reproduce the tide in this region based on the previous studies. The free oscillation experiment results described well the feature of tide that the diurnal tide is prevailing in the SCS. The tidal residual current and total energy dissipation were discussed to understand the tidal and sedimentary environments. The storm-surge caused by typhoon Haiyan was reasonably simulated using this modeling system. This study established the regional real-time barotropic tide/water level prediction system for the South China Sea including the seas around the Philippines through the validation of the model and the understanding of tidal characteristics.

Lifetime test of batteries for BLE modules for site identification of vessel's crews and passengers (SIVCP) (SIVCP용 BLE 모듈의 배터리 수명시험)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-joo;Kim, Min-Gwon;Kim, Yoon-Sik;Lee, Sung-Geun
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.7
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    • pp.754-759
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays, short distance communication systems with low power energy (LPE) are developed for identification and monitoring of site identification of vessel crews and passengers (SIVCP). LPE communication modules, such as Bluetooth low energy (BLE) and Zigbee, are used for short distance communications with LPE. These modules enable 1:N communications and their popularity is growing since the modules can be mounted on movable objects, such as mobile devices and human body. When these modules are used, the important factor that affects their operation time and design are the capacity and size of battery. Therefore, they must be made as small as possible, and the battery should be selected to be slightly smaller than the module. In this study, we calculate the theoretical life of batteries used in SIVCP BLE modules using data sheet and discharge characteristic graph under the condition of a 1/250 transmission-ratio (TR). We thus calculate experimental life by measuring transmission current for the same TR, and low speed mode current for a 1/5000 TR and measure long-term experimental life using 1/25 TR for days. Through these experiments, we verify experimental methods for the prediction and extension of battery life that would enable us to select appropriate sizes of batteries based on vessel usage and passenger types. The selections of the module TR and battery size are important factors affecting the cost reduction of module design, the battery maintenance, and passenger convenience.

Application of a Convolution Method for the Fast Prediction of Wind-Induced Surface Current in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (표층해류 신속예측을 위한 회선적분법의 적용)

  • 강관수;정경태
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.265-276
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    • 1995
  • In this Paper, the Performance of the convolution method has been investigated as an effort to develop a simple system of predicting wind-driven surface current on a real time basis. In this approach wind stress is assumed to be spatially uniform and the effect of atmospheric pressure is neglected. The discrete convolution weights are determined in advance at each point using a linear three-dimensional Galerkin model with linear shape functions(Galerkin-FEM model). Four directions of wind stress(e.g. NE, SW, NW, SE) with unit magnitude are imposed in the model calculation for the construction of data base for convolution weights. Given the time history of wind stress, it is then possible to predict with-driven currents promptly using the convolution product of finite length. An unsteady wind stress of arbitrary form can be approximated by a series of wind pulses with magnitude of 6 hour averaged value. A total of 12 pulses are involved in the convolution product To examine the accuracy of the convolution method a series of numerical experiments has been carried out in the idealized basin representing the scale of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The wind stress imposed varies sinusoidally in time. It was found that the predicted surface currents and elevation fields were in good agreement with the results computed by the direct integration of the Galerkin model. A model with grid 1/8$^{\circ}$ in latitude, l/6$^{\circ}$ in longitude was established which covers the entire region of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The numerical prediction in terms of the convolution product has been carried out with particular attention on the formation of upwind flow in the middle of the Yellow Sea by northerly wind.

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WQI Class Prediction of Sihwa Lake Using Machine Learning-Based Models (기계학습 기반 모델을 활용한 시화호의 수질평가지수 등급 예측)

  • KIM, SOO BIN;LEE, JAE SEONG;KIM, KYUNG TAE
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2022
  • The water quality index (WQI) has been widely used to evaluate marine water quality. The WQI in Korea is categorized into five classes by marine environmental standards. But, the WQI calculation on huge datasets is a very complex and time-consuming process. In this regard, the current study proposed machine learning (ML) based models to predict WQI class by using water quality datasets. Sihwa Lake, one of specially-managed coastal zone, was selected as a modeling site. In this study, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) and tree-based pipeline optimization (TPOT) algorithms were used to train models and each model performance was evaluated by metrics (accuracy, precision, F1, and Log loss) on classification. Before training, the feature importance and sensitivity analysis were conducted to find out the best input combination for each algorithm. The results proved that the bottom dissolved oxygen (DOBot) was the most important variable affecting model performance. Conversely, surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DINSur) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIPSur) had weaker effects on the prediction of WQI class. In addition, the performance varied over features including stations, seasons, and WQI classes by comparing spatio-temporal and class sensitivities of each best model. In conclusion, the modeling results showed that the TPOT algorithm has better performance rather than the AdaBoost algorithm without considering feature selection. Moreover, the WQI class for unknown water quality datasets could be surely predicted using the TPOT model trained with satisfactory training datasets.

Current Status and Results of In-orbit Function, Radiometric Calibration and INR of GOCI-II (Geostationary Ocean Color Imager 2) on Geo-KOMPSAT-2B (정지궤도 해양관측위성(GOCI-II)의 궤도 성능, 복사보정, 영상기하보정 결과 및 상태)

  • Yong, Sang-Soon;Kang, Gm-Sil;Huh, Sungsik;Cha, Sung-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_2
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    • pp.1235-1243
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    • 2021
  • Geostationary Ocean Color Imager 2 (GOCI-II) on Geo-KOMPSAT-2 (GK2B)satellite was developed as a mission successor of GOCI on COMS which had been operated for around 10 years since launch in 2010 to observe and monitor ocean color around Korean peninsula. GOCI-II on GK2B was successfully launched in February of 2020 to continue for detection, monitoring, quantification, and prediction of short/long term changes of coastal ocean environment for marine science research and application purpose. GOCI-II had already finished IAC and IOT including early in-orbit calibration and had been handed over to NOSC (National Ocean Satellite Center) in KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency). Radiometric calibration was periodically conducted using on-board solar calibration system in GOCI-II. The final calibrated gain and offset were applied and validated during IOT. And three video parameter sets for one day and 12 video parameter sets for a year was selected and transferred to NOSC for normal operation. Star measurement-based INR (Image Navigation and Registration) navigation filtering and landmark measurement-based image geometric correction were applied to meet the all INR requirements. The GOCI2 INR software was validated through INR IOT. In this paper, status and results of IOT, radiometric calibration and INR of GOCI-II are analysed and described.

Projected Climate Change Scenario over East Asia by a Regional Spectral Model (동아시아 지역에서의 지역 분광 모델을 이용하여 투영시킨 기후변화 시나리오)

  • Chang, Eun-Chul;Hong, Song-You
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.770-783
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we performed a downscaling of an ECHAM5 simulated dataset for the current and future climate produced under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The current climate simulation was performed for the period 1980-2000 and the future climate run for the period 2040-2070 for the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)'s East Asia domain. The RSM is properly able to reproduce the climatological fields from the evaluation of the current climate simulation. Future climatological precipitation during the summer season is increased over the tropical Oceans, the maritime-continent, and Japan. In winter, on the other hand, precipitation is increased over the tropical Indian Ocean, the maritime-continents and the Western North Pacific, and decreased over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. For the East Asia region few significant changes are detected in the precipitation climatological field. However, summer rainfall shows increasing trend after 2050 over the region. The future climate ground temperature shows a clear increasing trend in comparison with the current climate. In response to global warming, atmospheric warming is clearly detected, which strengthens the upper level trough.