• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.155-163
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• 2022

The optimization of long-range ensemble climate prediction for rice phenology model with advanced bias correction method is conducted. The daily long-range forecast(6-month) of mean/ minimum/maximum temperature and observation of January to October during 1991-2021 is collected for rice phenology prediction. In this study, the concept of "buffer period" is newly introduced to reduce the problem after bias correction by quantile mapping with constructing the transfer function by month, which evokes the discontinuity at the borders of each month. The four experiments with different lengths of buffer periods(5, 10, 15, 20 days) are implemented, and the best combinations of buffer periods are selected per month and variable. As a result, it is found that root mean square error(RMSE) of temperatures decreases in the range of 4.51 to 15.37%. Furthermore, this improvement of climatic variables quality is linked to the performance of the rice phenology model, thereby reducing RMSE in every rice phenology step at more than 75~100% of Automated Synoptic Observing System stations. Our results indicate the possibility and added values of interdisciplinary study between atmospheric and agriculture sciences.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.679-686
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• 2022

As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), K_DP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-K_DP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K^0.81_DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

• Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.74-83
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• 2022

The entire process, from the raw material to the final system qualification test, has been developed to fabricate a large-diameter, lightweight reflective-telescope system for a satellite observation. The telescope with 3 anastigmatic mirrors has an aperture of 700 mm and a total mass of 66 kg. We baked a silicon carbide substrate body from a carbon preform using a reaction sintering method, and tested the structural and chemical properties, surface conditions, and crystal structure of the body. We developed the polishing and coating methods considering the mechanical and chemical properties of the silicon carbide (SiC) body, and we utilized a chemical-vapor-deposition method to deposit a dense SiC thin film more than 170 ㎛ thick on the mirror's surface, to preserve a highly reflective surface with excellent optical performance. After we made the SiC mirrors, we measured the wave-front error for various optical fields by assembling and aligning three mirrors and support structures. We conducted major space-environment tests for the components and final assembly by temperature-cycling tests and vibration-shock tests, in accordance with the qualifications for the space and launch environment. We confirmed that the final telescope achieves all of the target performance criteria.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.471-484
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• 2023

Deep learning models based on generative adversarial neural networks are specialized in generating new information based on learned information. The deep generative models (DGMR) model developed by Google DeepMind is an generative adversarial neural network model that generates predictive radar images by learning complex patterns and relationships in large-scale radar image data. In this study, the DGMR model was trained using radar rainfall observation data from the Ministry of Environment, and rainfall prediction was performed using an generative adversarial neural network for a heavy rainfall case in August 2021, and the accuracy was compared with existing prediction techniques. The DGMR generally resembled the observed rainfall in terms of rainfall distribution in the first 60 minutes, but tended to predict a continuous development of rainfall in cases where strong rainfall occurred over the entire area. Statistical evaluation also showed that the DGMR method is an effective rainfall prediction method compared to other methods, with a critical success index of 0.57 to 0.79 and a mean absolute error of 0.57 to 1.36 mm in 1 hour advance prediction. However, the lack of diversity in the generated results sometimes reduces the prediction accuracy, so it is necessary to improve the diversity and to supplement it with rainfall data predicted by a physics-based numerical forecast model to improve the accuracy of the forecast for more than 2 hours in advance.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.1047-1061
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• 2015

Stratified random sampling is a powerful sampling strategy to reduce variance of the estimators by incorporating useful auxiliary information to stratify the population. Sample allocation is the one of the important decisions in selecting a stratified random sample. There are two common methods, the proportional allocation and Neyman allocation if we could assume data collection cost for different observation units equal. Theoretically, Neyman allocation considering the size and standard deviation of each stratum, is known to be more effective than proportional allocation which incorporates only stratum size information. However, if the information on the standard deviation is inaccurate, the performance of Neyman allocation is in doubt. It has been pointed out that Neyman allocation is not suitable for multi-purpose sample survey that requires the estimation of several characteristics. In addition to sampling error, non-response error is another factor to evaluate sampling strategy that affects the statistical precision of the estimator. We propose new sample allocation methods using the available information about stratum response rates at the designing stage to improve stratified random sampling. The proposed methods are efficient when response rates differ considerably among strata. In particular, the method using population sizes and response rates improves the Neyman allocation in multi-purpose sample survey.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.147-211
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• 1995

Medication is a kind of medical service and a therapeutic nursing function which takes large portion of nursing service and requires complicated procedures. So many different medical personnel should be involved and cooporate each other in order to accomplish medication. Medication is also a vital nursing service, So nurse feels heavy responsibi lity in that she gives medication to the patient finally, so she has much responsibility if medication error is happened. Therefore it seems very important to clarify the problem of medication system and method, and find the subculture of medication situation because it may promote nursing productivity. The study was conducted to 1. Describe and interpret medication situation. 2. Find out the problem of medication system and method and on alternatives. 3. Compare the medication system and method of hospitals which are located in Seoul with object hospital Ethnographic methodology was used to study medication situation by doing participant observation and interview of health care personnel. Ten nurses and three nurse aids were interviewed. Two residents and internists, two phamacists and two accountants were also interviewed. Data was obtained and analized according to Developmental Research Sequence introduced by Spradly. On the basis of this data the results were as follows. 1. The overall flow of medication system was devided into six stage : first, checking doctor's order : second writing doctor's order, : third, transfering slip into the related departments such as account department, pharmacy : fourth, distribution of medication from pharmacy to unit : fifth, identifing medication by nurses : and finally, medicating to the patient. Behaviorors have been under a lot of stress in that they have to do much works, especially paperworks, So too much time were needed. They also have been suffered interpersonal conflicts among health care personnel and role conflicts in the process of doing medication service. 2. In the process of checking order, the problem was that too much time was required for checking order and paperwork. The more the order changes the more the paperwork is. Nurses have been suffering difficulties in calling internist in order to get bill. Even if writing down slip for medication order is doctor's job, Sometimes nurse has been expected to write slip by doctors or nurse would write slip beacuse of two much complexities and efforts for calling doctors. If the slip were incorrect, much time complicated procedures were more required for correcting it. So delay of administering drug would be resulted consequently. Drugs were delivered from pharmacy to units by delivery agent and phamacist. But because drugs were delivered without arranging room number of patient. Nurse should rearrange drugs in order of the room number So it had made waste time and effort, and Even when emergency drugs were needed, Prompt delivery of drug was not easy because of many reasons. For nurses, it took too long in the identification of the right drug. Actually nurses have heavy burden when medication error happens because nurse is the final actor who gives medication to the patient, So every three shift nurse ought to check drugs as soon as every shift begins. That's why it took too much time due to repeated confirming procedure. When nurses had to go patient room in order to give medications, there were difficulties in watching patient until the patient take medicine correctly. So it was impossible to check every patient wheather he took medicine or not especially in hectic situation. 3. There were many hospitals in Seoul which have similar medication system and method as object hospital according to the results of questionaire. This means that many hospitals have been suffering srimilar problems which were identified in object hospital. 4. Recommendations for promoting simplification of medication system and method were the following : Redesigning of slip from two pieces of paper into one : early discharge announcement system, and slip confirming through computer and controlling of period of prescreption from one day to two or three days : designing personal drug storage box for each patient and using it. If nurses follow the recommendations, they will make medication short & simple, and also have enough time of direct nursing care 5. Even though there were many difficulties in medicating patients. Medication itself has been considered as a caring among nurses because it makes rapport between nurse and patient. So nurses had better accept medication as a portion of nusing service not a original portion of phamacist. There are some limits in this research in terms of confining to only one unit of one hospital, and treating it especially in view of nurses' aspects, So further researchs should be continnued from various kmds of viewpoints of doctors, phamacists and so on. ${\cdot\cdot\cdot}$. Especially esthnographic study of computerized medication system and method seems to be followed.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.67-84
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• 2010

In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2018

In order to compare significant wave height (SWH) data from multi-satellites (GFO, Jason-1, Envisat, Jason-2, Cryosat-2, SARAL) and SWH measurements from Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS), we constructed a 12 year matchup database between satellite and IORS measurements from December 2004 to May 2016. The satellite SWH showed a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.34 m and a positive bias of 0.17 m with respect to the IORS wave height. The satellite data and IORS wave height data did not show any specific seasonal variations or interannual variability, which confirmed the consistency of satellite data. The effect of the wind field on the difference of the SWH data between satellite and IORS was investigated. As a result, a similar result was observed in which a positive biases of about 0.17 m occurred on all satellites. In order to understand the effects of topography and the influence of the construction structures of IORS on the SWH differences, we investigated the directional dependency of differences of wave height, however, no statistically significant characteristics of the differences were revealed. As a result of analyzing the characteristics of the error as a function of the distance between the satellite and the IORS, the biases are almost constant about 0.14 m regardless of the distance. By contrast, the amplitude of the SWH differences, the maximum value minus the minimum value at a given distance range, was found to increase linearly as the distance was increased. On the other hand, as a result of the accuracy evaluation of the satellite SWH from the Donghae marine meteorological buoy of Korea Meteorological Administration, the satellite SWH presented a relatively small RMSE of about 0.27 m and no specific characteristics of bias such as the validation results at IORS. In this paper, we propose a conversion formula to correct the significant wave data of IORS with the satellite SWH data. In addition, this study emphasizes that the reliability of data should be prioritized to be extensively utilized and presents specific methods and strategies in order to upgrade the IORS as an international world-wide marine observation site.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.239-251
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• 2019

Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.6_1
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• pp.1423-1444
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• 2022

In this study, the sensitivity of the mid-infrared radiance to atmospheric and surface factors was analyzed using the radiative transfer model, MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN6)'s simulation data. The possibility of retrieving the land surface temperature (LST) using only the mid-infrared bands at night was evaluated. Based on the sensitivity results, the LST retrieval algorithm that reflects various factors for night was developed, and the level of the LST retrieval algorithm was evaluated using reference LST and observed LST. Sensitivity experiments were conducted on the atmospheric profiles, carbon dioxide, ozone, diurnal variation of LST, land surface emissivity (LSE), and satellite viewing zenith angle (VZA), which mainly affect satellite remote sensing. To evaluate the possibility of using split-window method, the mid-infrared wavelength was divided into two bands based on the transmissivity. Regardless of the band, the top of atmosphere (TOA) temperature is most affected by atmospheric profile, and is affected in order of LSE, diurnal variation of LST, and satellite VZA. In all experiments, band 1, which corresponds to the atmospheric window, has lower sensitivity, whereas band 2, which includes ozone and water vapor absorption, has higher sensitivity. The evaluation results for the LST retrieval algorithm using prescribed LST showed that the correlation coefficient (CC), the bias and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 0.999, 0.023K and 0.437K, respectively. Also, the validation with 26 in-situ observation data in 2021 showed that the CC, bias and RMSE is 0.993, 1.875K and 2.079K, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the LST can be retrieved using different characteristics of the two bands of mid-infrared to the atmospheric and surface conditions at night. Therefore, it is necessary to retrieve the LST using satellite data equipped with sensors in the mid-infrared bands.