• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2019

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.11-18
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• 2022

본 연구는 대한해협 인근 입자추적 예측 기법의 정확도 개선을 위해서 해수유동 수치모델 결과를 이용하여 만든 입자추적 모델과 현장 관측 자료를 이용한 기계학습 기반 입자 추적 모델을 비교 및 분석하였다. 세부 연구 방법으로는 대한해협에서 관측된 표층 뜰개 이동 궤적 자료, 3개 관측소(가거도, 거제도, 교본초 관측소)의 조위 및 바람자료를 학습시켜 만든 기계 학습(선형 회귀, 의사결정나무) 기반 예측자료, 수치모델 예측자료(ROMS, MOHID)를 3가지 오차평가방법(CC, RMSE, NCLS)을 통해 비교하였다. 최종 결과로서 CC와 RMSE에서는 의사결정나무 모델의 예측 정확도가 가장 우수하였고 NCLS에서는 MOHID 모델의 예측 결과가 가장 우수하였다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.213-222
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• 2002

이 논문에서는 서울지역 기온에 대한 향후 48시간까지 3시간 간격 예보 모델 개발 결과이 다. 동적 변화패턴과 수치모델의 체계적 오차를 제거하기 위하여 동적 선형모형으로 적합하였으며 , 수치모델 예측치와 관측치를 입력 변수로 사용하였다. 동적 선형모형에 의한 예측모델은 수치모델의 체계적 오차를 성공적으로 제거하였으며, 예측 정확도를 향상시키고 있다.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.355-367
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• 1995

정점에서의 조석(조위, 조류)은 전통적으로 조화분석 및 예보에 의해 추정되며 다른 방법은 조석수치모형에 의한 예보이다. 본 연구에서는 수치모형의 직접적인 출력으로서 조석을 추정하는 방법과 장기간(1개월)의 모형출력을 조화분석한 조위와 조류의 조화상수의 Data Table을 근거로 한 인천항 전역의 임의위치에서의 실시간적으로 조석을 신속하게 추정하는 방법을 제시하였다.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.48-54
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• 2000

This paper presents the effect of shape of external corrosion in pipeline on failure prediction by using a numerical simulation. The numerical study for the pipeline failure analysis is based on the FEM(Finite Element Method)with an elastic-plstic and large-deformation analysis. Corrosion pits and narrow corrosion grooves in pressurized pipeline were analysed. A failure criterion, based on the local stress state at the corrosion and a plastic collapse failure mechanism, is proposed. The predicted failure stress assessed for the simulated corrosion defects having different corroded shapes along the pipeline axis compared with those by methods specified in ANSI/ASME B31G code and a modified B31G code. It is concluded the corrosion geometry significantly affects the failure behavior of corroded pipeline and categorisation of pipeline corrosion should be considered in the development of new guidance for integrity assessment.

• 소성∙가공
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.215-223
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• 2005

A numerical analysis program is developed by FDM scheme for the prediction of microstructural transformation during heat treatment of steels. In this study, multi-phase model was used fur description of diffusional austenite transformations in low-alloy hypoeutectoid steels during cooling after austenitization. A fundamental property of the model consisting of coupled differential equations is that by taking into account the rate of austenite grain growth, it permits the prediction of the progress of ferrite, pearlite, and bainite transformations simultaneously during quenching and estimate the amount of martensite also by using K-M eq. In order to simulate the microstructural evolution during tempering process, another Avrami-type eq. was adopted and method for vickers hardness prediction was also proposed. To verify the developed program, the calculated results are compared with experimental ones of casting product. Based on these results, newly designed heat treatment process is proposed and it was proved to be effective for industry.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.49-56
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• 2017

A clear correlation exists between the compressive strength and elastic modulus of concrete. Unfortunately, determining the static elastic modulus requires destructive methods and determining the dynamic elastic modulus is greatly complicated by the shape and size of the specimens. This paper reports on a novel approach to the prediction of compressive strength in concrete cylinders using numerical calculations in conjunction with the impact-echo method. This non-destructive technique involves obtaining the speeds of P-waves and S-waves using correction factors through numerical calculation based on frequencies measured using the impact-echo method. This approach makes it possible to calculate the dynamic elastic modulus with relative ease, thereby enabling the prediction of compressive strength. Experiment results demonstrate the speed, convenience, and efficacy of the proposed method.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.406-412
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• 2001

This study is focussed on the numerical prediction of the thermal fatigue life of a ${\mu}BGA$(Micro Ball Grid Array) solder joint. Numerical method is used to perform three-dimensional finite element analysis for Sn-37mass%Pb. Sn-3.5mass%Ag solder alloys during the given thermal cycling. Strain values, along with the result of mechanical fatigue tests for solder alloys were then used to predict the solder joint fatigue life using the Coffin-Manson equation. In this study, a practical correlation for the prediction of the thermal fatigue life is suggested by using the dimensionless variable $\gamma$. As a result. it could be found that Sn-3.5mass%Ag has longer fatigue life than Sn-37mass%Pb in low cycle fatigue. In addition. the result with ${\gamm}ashow$a good agreement with the FEA results.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회논문집; 경주코오롱호텔; 22-23 May 1997
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• pp.581-587
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• 1997

Numerical predictions of aerodynamic noise radiated by subsonic rotors are carried out. A time domain approach for Ffowcs-Williams Hawkings equation of acoustic analogy is used in developing a comprehensive rotor/fan noise prediction program to handle both arbitrary blade shapes and loading conditions. Since only the aeroacoustic aspects of rotors are considered here, the calculations are carried out for rotors with simple aerodynamic characteristics. Broadband noise from ingestion of turbulence is also considered. By incorporating discrete frequency noise prediction of steady loading with broadband spectrum, much better correlation at the low frequency region with experimental data is obtaind. The contributions from different noise mechanisms can also be analysed through this method.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.741-747
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• 2006

It has been almost impossible to predict the fatigue life in the field of rubber materials by numerical methods. One of the reasons is that there are no obvious fracture criteria and excessively various ways of mixing processes. Tearing energy is considered as a fracture criterion which can be applied to rubber compounds regardless of different types of fillers, relative to other fracture factors. Fatigue life of rubber materials can be approximately predicted based on the assumption that the latent defect caused by contaminants or voids in the matrix, imperfectly dispersed compounding ingredients, mold lubricants and surface flaws always exists. Numerical expression for the prediction of fatigue life was derived from the rate of rough cut growth region and the formulated tearing energy equation. Endurance test data for dumbbell specimens were compared with the predicted fatigue life for verification. Also, fatigue life of industrial rubber components was predicted.