• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.209-218
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• 2024

Relations between North Korea and Russia have recently reached an inflection point in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, and are expected to have a significant military and geopolitical impact on the Korean Peninsula and the security environment in East Asia in the future. The 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between North Korea and Russia' was signed on the occasion of Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia in September 2023 and Russian President Putin's visit to North Korea in June 2024. The security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia is anticipated to be significantly impacted by developmental changes in North Korea-Russia relations. As North Korea and Russia formed a paramilitary alliance, stipulating provisions that can be interpreted as automatic military intervention, North Korea's military support for the ongoing war in Ukraine was secured, and the basis for Russia's military intervention in future Korean Peninsula issues was laid. Additionally, the possibility of transferring Russian military technology to North Korea increased as an institutional mechanism was established to implement joint measures to strengthen the defense capabilities between the two countries. If Russia uses its position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to neutralize international sanctions against North Korea and provide large-scale economic support, North Korea will break away from international isolation and strengthen its strategic autonomy. Therefore, this study examines the historical process of change in North Korea-Russia relations and examines the main contents and implications of the 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement' concluded after the North Korea-Russia summit in June 2024.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.7-44
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• 2024

This article attempts to analyze the changes and prospects of the Northeast Asian security environment in the era of New-Cold War & multipolarity that has been spreading since the outbreak of the US-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine. Since the war in Ukraine, changes in the new strategic triangle between the United States, China, and Russia have begun to have an unprecedented impact on the Northeast Asian security environment. This article analyzes how the two factors, the U.S.-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine, have led to changes in the Northeast Asian security environment. More specifically, the recent changes and prospects of the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and the three bilateral relationships, China-Russia, China-North Korea, and Russia-North Korea. To analyze this research topic, the research design is based on three variables: independent, mediating, and dependent variables. The independent variables are changes in U.S.-China relations and changes in U.S.-Russia relations. The mediating variables are the US-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine. On the one hand, the confrontation between the U.S.-China relationship led to a strategic competition, and on the other hand, the conflict between the U.S.-Russia relationship led to the war in Ukraine. In addition, the two independent variables can only be influenced by the two mediating variables. In particular, we assume that the domestic political factors of the three major powers, the United States, China, and Russia, played a significant role in causing the two mediating variables. The independent variables and mediating variables work together to promote the Northeast Asian security crisis. As a result, threats to the Northeast Asian security environment have emerged as the dependent variable. The dependent variables are the North Korea-China-Russia triangle, changes in the three bilateral relationships within the triangle, and the confrontation of Northern Triangle versus Southern Triangle. The first mediating variable, strategic competition, has led to several changes in the Northeast Asian security environment: the quasi-alliance of Sino-Russian relations, the restoration and strengthening of North Korea-China relations, the strengthening of trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the increasing necessity of Sino-Russian-North Korean trilateral cooperation. The second mediating variable, the war in Ukraine, has led to the strengthening of Sino-Russian relations, re-alignment of North Korea-Russia relations, the promotion of the US-Japan-ROK triangular alliance, and the emergence of the China-Russia-North Korea triangular cooperation.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.13-30
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• 2021

The government of Vladimir Putin, which has been ruling Russia for a long period since 2000, has recently strived for the balanced development of underdeveloped regions and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, along with energy development in the Far East and Siberian regions, the government is promoting development projects on logistics and distribution infrastructure. It is also expanding the construction of innovative districts to develop cutting-edge technologies in the outskirts of Moscow. Amid these moves, South Korea is pushing for the New Northern Policy aimed at widening economic cooperation with European and North Asian countries to expand the scope and influence of the country's trade market. The previous year of 2020, marked the 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Russia. In this context, this study was initiated to propose various measures for promoting economic cooperation and expanding trade between South Korea and Russia. Therefore, this study examined Russia's political and economic environment and explored its major industrial environment with a focus on the energy industry, innovative districts and infra facility. The study also examined the progress of a FTA between the Eurasian Economic Union, in which Russia currently takes the lead, and South Korea and recommended several measures to upgrade and accelerate economic cooperation between the two countries through research on a range of topics.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.44-64
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• 2017

Russia's push in the Asia-Pacific region stems from its interests that have the national, regional and global dimensions. In their turn, the aims of this policy are civilizational, geopolitical, economic and prospective, with a long-term outlook. In the course of their achievement, cooperation with Northeast Asia's countries will play one of the key roles owing to the factors of geographic proximity, Northeast Asia's economic potential, risk hedging and a growing influence Northeast Asia exerts upon the global development. A new cooperation paradigm between Russia and the states of Northeast Asia should be based upon establishing and cementing self-reproducing ties. This is the central aim of Russian initiatives in relations, with Japan, the Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia and China. However, numerous obstacles ranging from Russia's absence in the regional free trade agreements and supply-production chains of value-added production to the permanent international instability generated by Pyongyang's missile-nuclear developments hamper the practical implementation of this task. Realizing the necessity to give an additional impetus to this new cooperative paradigm, Russia has to develop directions with an apparent consolidating effect. The most promising may be the establishment of a permanent security forum based upon Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism chaired by the Russian Federation. The urgency of this measure and its expected support stem from the necessity to strengthen security in Northeast Asia, a task neither the US-led hub-and-spoke system nor ASE-AN-led multilateral dialogue venues have been able to resolve. The issues addressed at the security forum must include the unification of approaches to North Korean nuclear issue and producing a document specifying actions of the claimants on the disputed maritime territories in the "direct contact" situations. At the expert level, Russia has elaborated on the idea to establish such a forum outlining the spectrum of the key directions of cooperation. With the urgency in the establishment of this dialogue venue, its agenda has to be coordinated with the agendas of the existing security systems presented by the US alliances and the ASE-AN-led multilateral negotiations. The practical implementation of this initiative will strengthen security in Northeast Asia as its challenges will be resolved in the pre-emptive way based on coordinated approaches. Therefore, Russia as the Eurasian state will be one of the role players in the advent of the Asian century.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.31-43
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• 2017

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.287-325
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• 2017

Considering the development of aerospace, military science and technology since the 20th century, the sky is very important for the nation's existence and prosperity. The proverb "Whosoever commands the space commands the world itself!" emphasizes the need for the command of the air. This essay is the first study on the status of airspace after reunification. First, the territorial airspace is over the territory and territorial sea, and its horizontal extent is determined by the territorial boundary lines. Acceptance of the present order is most reasonable, rather than attempting to reconfigure through historical truths about border issues, and it could be supported by neighboring countries in the reunification period. For peace in Northeast Asia, the reunified Korea needs to respect the existing border agreement between North Korea and China or Russia. However, the North Korean straight baselines established in the East Sea and the Yellow Sea should be discarded because they are not available under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It is desirable for the reunified Korea to redefine the straight baselines that comply with international law and determine the territorial waters up to and including the 12-nautical mile outside it. Second, the Flight Information Region (hereinafter "FIR") is a region defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (hereinafter "ICAO") in order to provide information necessary for the safe and efficient flight of aircraft and the search and rescue of aircraft. At present, Korea is divided into Incheon FIR which is under the jurisdiction of South Korea and Pyongyang FIR which is under the jurisdiction of North Korea. If North Korea can not temporarily exercise control of Pyongyang FIR due to a sudden change of circumstances, it is desirable for South Korea to exercise control of Pyongyang FIR, and if it is unavoidable, ICAO should temporarily exercise it. In reunified Korea, it is desirable to abolish Pyongyang FIR and integrate it into Incheon FIR with the approval of ICAO, considering systematic management and control of FIR, establishment of route, and efficiency of management. Third, the Air Defense Identification Zone (hereinafter "ADIZ") is a zone that requires easy identification, positioning, and control of aircraft for national security purposes, and is set up unilaterally by the country concerned. The US unilaterally established the Korea Air Defense Identification Area (KADIZ) by the Declaration of Commitment on March 22, 1951. The Ministry of Defense proclaimed a new KADIZ which extended to the area including IEODO on December 13, 2013. At present, North Korea's military warning zone is set only at maritime boundaries such as the East Sea and the Yellow Sea. But in view of its lack of function as ADIZ in relations with China and Russia, the reunified Korea has no obligation to succeed it. Since the depth of the Korean peninsula is short, it is necessary to set ADIZ boundary on the outskirts of the territorial airspace to achieve the original purpose of ADIZ. Therefore, KADIZ of the reunified Korea should be newly established by the boundary line that coincides with the Incheon FIR of the reunified Korea. However, if there is no buffer zone overlapping with or adjacent to the ADIZs of neighboring countries, military tensions may rise. Therefore, through bilateral negotiations for peace in Northeast Asia, a buffer zone is established between adjacent ADIZs.