• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.647-654
• /
• 2021

This study examines the non-performing loans of rural banks and macroeconomic factors in Indonesia, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. Theoretically, the existence of erratic macroeconomic conditions can affect the level of non-performing credit risk in rural credit banks in Indonesia. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans has a different response for each economic sector. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period from January 2015 to December 2018. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to determine the effect of independent variables consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans are credit, inflation, and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on non-performing loans, namely, credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on bad credit in the short term.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권6호
• /
• pp.9-18
• /
• 2020

This study seeks to analyze the effect of Non-Performing Loans and Capital Adequacy Ratio on Return on Assets on ten conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI-IDX). This study uses secondary panel data for 2015-2019 in the form of CAR and NPL values from ten conventional banks listed on the BEI-IDX during the 2020 observation period. The research approach is quantitative descriptive with data analysis methods, namely, linear regression. The testing phase of this study includes: transform value, F-test, T-test and hypothesis test with significancy level sig < 0.05. The results of this study reveal that Non-Performing Loans had a significant negative effect (t = -2,637) (0.011 <0.0) on Return on Assets, while Capital Adequacy Ratio has no significant effect on ROA (0.760 > 0.05). R2 value is 0.128 or 12.8%. It has a significant effect on variables, calling efforts by banks, governments, and authorities monetary of related institutions to maintain the stability of finance. The reduction of Non-Performing Loan impacts on assets and capital adequacy ratio, besides, the normal NPL will control the stability of finance. If a balance is created either in the form of values or amounts of the variables, the reduction in Non-Performing Loans will be controlled.

• 수산경영론집
• /
• 제37권3호
• /
• pp.45-63
• /
• 2006

A number of public loans with lower interests and other tax benefits have been provided for farmers and fishermen. However, much of those loans have been accumulated as non-performing. The result is that a large part of fisheries debts are now on the verge of default, Those loans, that fail to pay interests, keep rapidly growing like a time bomb. Now something has to be done before it burst. Firstly, the government must clean up the debts caused by government's mismanagement in the past. The past debt must be repaid or written off by the government since its guarantee was committed several times in guidelines regarding public loans. As such a measure, the government can greatly enlarge its capital contribution to the Credit Guarantee Fund for Farmers and Fishermen and Loss Guarantee fund for Policy Loan. It would greatly help to compensate local branches of fisheries cooperatives for their loss incurred from carrying public loans. In the past, the government used to roll over old debts of fishermen with new debts whenever maturity came. It ends up growing the size of non - performing loans. For this reason, it is not delay of the debt payment, but its write - off that fishery society needs a lot. Secondly, the loan authorities must lower overall risk in providing public loans for fishermen in the future. The whole process must be thoroughly reviewed and changed to provide and manage government loans. To facilitate this, fisheries cooperative must stop being just a public agent, rather take a bigger responsibility in selecting, and checking loan beneficiaries, and securing debt repayment. Incentives must be arranged properly enough to induce fisheries cooperatives to treat public loans just like their own business. Finally, the so - called 'special account of policy loan in fisheries industry' must be set up to enhance the transparency and to check the performance of public loans programs.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.127-135
• /
• 2020

The paper aims to examine whether business cycles affect the link between financial development and bank risk, measured by Zscore and non-performing loans to total loans in six Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. This study uses a sample of 95 listed commercial banks over a 15-year period between 2004 and 2018 in the six Southeast Asian countries. This study employs panel OLS regression and modifications to tackle issues such as endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. The results show that the impact of stock market development (the ratio of the market capitalization to GDP) on Zscore is significantly positive, whereas its effect on non-performing loans is significantly negative. The findings suggest that financial development, in terms of stock market capitalization, improves banks' Zscores and reduces their level of non-performing loans, suggesting that financial development on average reduces bank risk. The impact of business cycle is insignificant towards bank risk, thus rejecting both counter- and pro-cyclical hypotheses, except for the case of risk indicator of loan loss provisions. Examining the joint effect of the business cycle and financial development on bank risk, we find that the phase of business cycles generally does not moderate the link between financial development and bank risk.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
• /
• 제16권8호
• /
• pp.5267-5272
• /
• 2015

본 연구는 2008~2013년 한국의 은행 대출 자료를 이용하여 건설 및 부동산업으로의 대출 집중과 은행 위험의 관계를 분석하였다. 각 은행의 기업대출에서 건설, 부동산업으로의 대출이 차지하는 비중을 이용하여 건설 및 부동산업의 대출을 산정하였다. 은행 위험은 부실여신(3개월 이상 연체 및 무이자 여신) 규모와 은행의 자기자본비율로 산정하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면, 1기 이전 은행의 건설, 부동산업 등으로의 대출 비중이 증가할수록 은행의 부실여신 규모는 감소하고 자기자본비율은 제고되는 것으로 나타났다. 은행의 특정 산업으로의 대출 집중은 은행의 위험을 증가시키지 않을 것으로 추정된다. 이는 대출집중으로 인해 은행들이 해당 산업에 대한 대출 전문심사 능력향상이 향상됨에 따라 이들 산업에 대한 정보비대칭성을 낮출 수 있기 때문인 것으로 추정된다. 한국의 경우 건설 및 부동산임대업으로의 대출 증가가 은행의 부실대출 위험으로 연계될 가능성은 크지 않은 것으로 진단된다.

• 문화기술의 융합
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.435-440
• /
• 2022

본 연구는 부동산가격변동이 우리나라 은행의 건전성에 미치는 영향을 다중회귀모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 부동산가격변동은 대출의 증가를 통해 은행의 고정이하여신비율을 유의하게 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 거시경제변수 중에서 단기금리는 은행의 BIS 자기자본비율, 고정이하여신비율 및 유동성커버리지비율 등 모든 건전성 지표에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 은행특성지표 중에서 대출증가율은 BIS 자기자본비율에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치고, 부동산담보대출비율은 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 고정이하여신비율은 BIS 자기자본비율에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 유동성커리지비율은 BIS 자기자본비율에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권12호
• /
• pp.95-105
• /
• 2021

A prerequisite of a sound financial system is effective channeling of financial resources to efficient users; hence maximizing economic and societal welfare. To that end, the prevalence of bad loans in banks in emerging economies is a major policy concern. In an attempt to add to the growing body of literature explaining the interrelationship between macroeconomic and firm-specific factors, and non-performing loans (NPL), this paper examines data from 24 scheduled commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2019. Macroeconomic factors as well as firm-specific factors related to profitability, capital strength, and efficiency are considered. Panel data regression analysis is performed to estimate pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models. Following the necessary testing, it was found that the fixed effects model with robust standard error is appropriate. Results show that return on assets and inflation have a negative influence on NPL, but GDP growth has a favorable impact. The paper concludes by asserting that the evidence supports similar findings from studies both in Bangladesh and elsewhere and it is noted that a combination of these macroeconomic and firm-specific factors explains only a small portion of the total variation in NPL.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.35-42
• /
• 2018

In recent decades, financial crises in various countries have often been preceded by the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banks' asset portfolios. The increase in NPLs is proven to have adverse impact on the banking sector so that understanding the determinant of NPLs is immensely crucial to ensure the efficiency and soundness of the overall economy. This study aims to shed light on bank-specific factors that affect loan default problems in developing countries whose banking sectors play a major role in the overall economy. This study analyzes panel data sets of 36 commercial banks listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period 2008-2015. Applying fixed-effects panel regression model reveals that Indonesian banks' profitability and credit growth negatively influence the number of NPLs. Moreover, banks with higher profitability are proven to have lower NPLs because they can afford adequate credit management practices. Likewise, banks with higher credit growth evidently have lower NPLs in the sense that they demonstrate more specialized lending activity and thus have better credit management systems. These findings imply that, in order to lower loan defaults that can deteriorate banks' asset quality, banks should maintain their level of profitability and increase, rather than decrease, their credit supply to debtors.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
• /
• 제21권6호
• /
• pp.91-102
• /
• 2020

본 연구는 연도별 은행의 투입요소와 산출요소의 생산가능집합을 순차적인 방법으로 구성하고 이 프런티어에 의해 비방사형 순차적 가중평균 러셀 방향거리함수로 비효율성을 측정한 후, 거리함수 값을 기초로 은행별 루엔버거 생산성 지수와 각 투입산출요소별 생산성 변화의 기여도를 분석하였다. 분석결과 첫째, 은행의 생산성은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 기술변화의 영향으로 생산성이 증가하였다. 둘째, 선행연구에서 글로벌 금융위기 전까지 기술진보의 변화를 보였으나 그 이후 기술변화는 정체 상태임을 실증적으로 제시하였다. 본 연구에서도 2009년부터 2014년까지는 기술변화의 침체로 생산성은 마이너스 성장을 하였다, 그러나 2014년 이후 생산성이 증가하였는데, 그 원인은 정체상태에 있었던 기술변화가 투입요소와 무수익여신의 감소로 인하여 기술진보로 전환된 데 있으며 이로 인해 생산성이 증가된 것으로 추론된다. 셋째, 과거 10년간 은행의 생산성 지수는 연평균 3.6% 증가하는 변화를 보였는데, 각 투입 및 산출요소별 생산성 기여도는 가계대출액 1.77%, 기업대출액 0.67%, 유형자산 1%, 인력 0.98%, 무수익여신 1.18%, 증권투자액과 총수신액 각각 -1.25%, -0.5%로 생산성을 증가시키는 데 무수익여신의 감축이 중요한 비중을 차지하고 있다. 본 연구의 한계점으로 분석모형의 방향성 거리함수 측정과정에서 자본구조 위험, 유동성 위험 등 환경변수의 방향성 설정이 어렵기 때문에 모형 내에서 통제하지 못함에 따라 환경변수의 영향을 고려하지 못하였다.

• 수산경영론집
• /
• 제39권1호
• /
• pp.43-61
• /
• 2008

Excessive public loan with low interest and other tax benefits have been provided for fishermen, but much of them turned out to be little performed. There were the moral hazards of Suhyup in the process of executing the public loans. As the government gave the reimbursement on the financial loss of Suhyup resulting from the public loans, Suhyup had no responsibility of the bad debt loss. Therefore, Suhyup gave little efforts to reduce the non-performing. The government perceived this problem and tried to reduce the under-performing loans. Thus, the government decided to take limited responsibilities. Suhyup made the progress to reduce the under-performing public loans. Suhyup dealt with these situation and made the credit evaluation model of the fisherman's public loan. This paper is for the credit evaluation model in the fisherman's public loan, which explains the model development methodology and the model characteristics in detail. This evaluation model is composed of two sub-component model. the one is the quantitative model and the other is the qualitative model. The quantitative sub-model is for the identification of fishermen financial status and is based on the financial transaction information. Its development methodology is the CSS modeling for the consumer market. The qualitative sub-model is for the evaluation the business prospect and is based on the business information such as fisherman's management skills, technology, equipment. Its development methodology is the AHP. It provides the detailed information in the model development methodology, which is the ideal example such as the public loan. In addition it gives the information to the interest parties such as policy makers, suhyup and fishermen.