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Predicting Forest Gross Primary Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms (머신러닝 기법의 산림 총일차생산성 예측 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Bora;Jang, Keunchang;Kim, Eunsook;Kang, Minseok;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2019
  • Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest global carbon flux, and forest ecosystems are important because of the ability to store much more significant amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. There have been several attempts to estimate GPP using mechanism-based models. However, mechanism-based models including biological, chemical, and physical processes are limited due to a lack of flexibility in predicting non-stationary ecological processes, which are caused by a local and global change. Instead mechanism-free methods are strongly recommended to estimate nonlinear dynamics that occur in nature like GPP. Therefore, we used the mechanism-free machine learning techniques to estimate the daily GPP. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression model (LM). MODIS products and meteorological parameters from eddy covariance data were employed to train the machine learning and LM models from 2006 to 2013. GPP prediction models were compared with daily GPP from eddy covariance measurement in a deciduous forest in South Korea in 2014 and 2015. Statistical analysis including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean squared error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of models. In general, the models from machine-learning algorithms (R = 0.85 - 0.93, MSE = 1.00 - 2.05, p < 0.001) showed better performance than linear regression model (R = 0.82 - 0.92, MSE = 1.24 - 2.45, p < 0.001). These results provide insight into high predictability and the possibility of expansion through the use of the mechanism-free machine-learning models and remote sensing for predicting non-stationary ecological processes such as seasonal GPP.

Comparison of rainfall-runoff performance based on various gridded precipitation datasets in the Mekong River basin (메콩강 유역의 격자형 강수 자료에 의한 강우-유출 모의 성능 비교·분석)

  • Kim, Younghun;Le, Xuan-Hien;Jung, Sungho;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Gihae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2023
  • As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

Investigation on the water quality challenges and benefits of buffer zone application to Yongdam reservoir, Republic of Korea (용담호의 홍수터 적용을 위한 문제점 및 이점 조사 연구)

  • Franz Kevin Geronimo;Hyeseon Choi;Minsu Jeon;Lee-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.274-283
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    • 2023
  • Buffer zones, an example of nature-based solutions, offer wide range of environmental, social and economic benefits due to their multifunctionality when applied to watershed areas promoting blue-green connectivity. This study evaluated the effects of buffer zone application to the water quality of Yongdam reservoir tributaries. Particularly, the challenges and improvement of the buffer zone design were identified and suggested, respectively. Water and soil samples were collected from a total of six sites in Yongdam reservoir from September 2021 to April 2022. Water quality analyses revealed that among the sites monitored, downstream of Sangjeonmyeon Galhyeonri (SG_W_D2) was found to have the highest concentration for water quality parameters turbidity, total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). This finding was attributed to the algal bloom observed during the sampling conducted in September and October 2021. It was found through the soil analyses that high TN and TP concentrations were also observed in all the agricultural land uses implying that nutrient accumulation in agricultural areas are high. Highest TN concentration was found in the agricultural area of Jeongcheonmyeon Wolpyeongri (JW_S_A) followed by Jucheonmyeon Sinyangri (JS_S_A) while the lowest TN concentration was found in the original soil of Sangjeonmyeon Galhyeonri (SG_S_O). Among the types of buffer zones identified in this study, Type II-A, Type II-B and Type III were found to have blue-green connectivity. However, initially, blue-green connectivity in these buffer zone types were not considered leading to poor design and poor performance. As such, improvement in the design considering blue-green network and renovation must be considered to optimize the performance of these buffer zones. The findings in this study is useful for designing buffer zones in the future.

A Study on Market Size Estimation Method by Product Group Using Word2Vec Algorithm (Word2Vec을 활용한 제품군별 시장규모 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ye Lim;Kim, Ji Hui;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.

Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

Comparison of Association Rule Learning and Subgroup Discovery for Mining Traffic Accident Data (교통사고 데이터의 마이닝을 위한 연관규칙 학습기법과 서브그룹 발견기법의 비교)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2015
  • Traffic accident is one of the major cause of death worldwide for the last several decades. According to the statistics of world health organization, approximately 1.24 million deaths occurred on the world's roads in 2010. In order to reduce future traffic accident, multipronged approaches have been adopted including traffic regulations, injury-reducing technologies, driving training program and so on. Records on traffic accidents are generated and maintained for this purpose. To make these records meaningful and effective, it is necessary to analyze relationship between traffic accident and related factors including vehicle design, road design, weather, driver behavior etc. Insight derived from these analysis can be used for accident prevention approaches. Traffic accident data mining is an activity to find useful knowledges about such relationship that is not well-known and user may interested in it. Many studies about mining accident data have been reported over the past two decades. Most of studies mainly focused on predict risk of accident using accident related factors. Supervised learning methods like decision tree, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, neural network are used for these prediction. However, derived prediction model from these algorithms are too complex to understand for human itself because the main purpose of these algorithms are prediction, not explanation of the data. Some of studies use unsupervised clustering algorithm to dividing the data into several groups, but derived group itself is still not easy to understand for human, so it is necessary to do some additional analytic works. Rule based learning methods are adequate when we want to derive comprehensive form of knowledge about the target domain. It derives a set of if-then rules that represent relationship between the target feature with other features. Rules are fairly easy for human to understand its meaning therefore it can help provide insight and comprehensible results for human. Association rule learning methods and subgroup discovery methods are representing rule based learning methods for descriptive task. These two algorithms have been used in a wide range of area from transaction analysis, accident data analysis, detection of statistically significant patient risk groups, discovering key person in social communities and so on. We use both the association rule learning method and the subgroup discovery method to discover useful patterns from a traffic accident dataset consisting of many features including profile of driver, location of accident, types of accident, information of vehicle, violation of regulation and so on. The association rule learning method, which is one of the unsupervised learning methods, searches for frequent item sets from the data and translates them into rules. In contrast, the subgroup discovery method is a kind of supervised learning method that discovers rules of user specified concepts satisfying certain degree of generality and unusualness. Depending on what aspect of the data we are focusing our attention to, we may combine different multiple relevant features of interest to make a synthetic target feature, and give it to the rule learning algorithms. After a set of rules is derived, some postprocessing steps are taken to make the ruleset more compact and easier to understand by removing some uninteresting or redundant rules. We conducted a set of experiments of mining our traffic accident data in both unsupervised mode and supervised mode for comparison of these rule based learning algorithms. Experiments with the traffic accident data reveals that the association rule learning, in its pure unsupervised mode, can discover some hidden relationship among the features. Under supervised learning setting with combinatorial target feature, however, the subgroup discovery method finds good rules much more easily than the association rule learning method that requires a lot of efforts to tune the parameters.

Comparative Study on the Methodology of Motor Vehicle Emission Calculation by Using Real-Time Traffic Volume in the Kangnam-Gu (자동차 대기오염물질 산정 방법론 설정에 관한 비교 연구 (강남구의 실시간 교통량 자료를 이용하여))

  • 박성규;김신도;이영인
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2001
  • Traffic represents one of the largest sources of primary air pollutants in urban area. As a consequence. numerous abatement strategies are being pursued to decrease the ambient concentration of pollutants. A characteristic of most of the these strategies is a requirement for accurate data on both the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions to air in the form of an atmospheric emission inventory database. In the case of traffic pollution, such an inventory must be compiled using activity statistics and emission factors for vehicle types. The majority of inventories are compiled using passive data from either surveys or transportation models and by their very nature tend to be out-of-date by the time they are compiled. The study of current trends are towards integrating urban traffic control systems and assessments of the environmental effects of motor vehicles. In this study, a methodology of motor vehicle emission calculation by using real-time traffic data was studied. A methodology for estimating emissions of CO at a test area in Seoul. Traffic data, which are required on a street-by-street basis, is obtained from induction loops of traffic control system. It was calculated speed-related mass of CO emission from traffic tail pipe of data from traffic system, and parameters are considered, volume, composition, average velocity, link length. And, the result was compared with that of a method of emission calculation by VKT(Vehicle Kilometer Travelled) of vehicles of category.

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Three-Dimensional Limit Equilibrium Stability Analysis of Spile-Reinforced Shallow Tunnel

    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.101-122
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    • 1997
  • A spiting reinforcement system is composed of a series of radially installed reinforcing spites along the perimeter of the tunnel opening ahead of excavation. The reinforcing spill network is extended into the in-situ soil mass both radially and longitudinally The sailing reinforcement system has been successfully used for the construction of underground openings to reinforce weak rock formations on several occasions. The application of this spiting reinforcement system is currently extended to soft ground tunneling in limited occasions because of lack of reliable analysis and design methods. A method of threetimensional limit equilibrium stability analysis of the smile-reinforced shallow tunnel in soft ground is presented. The shape of the potential failure wedge for the case of smile-reinforced shallow tunnel is assumed on the basis of the results of three dimensional finite element analyses. A criterion to differentiate the spill-reinforced shallow tunnel from the smile-reinforced deep tunnel is also formulated, where the tunnel depth, soil type, geometry of the tunnel and reinforcing spites, together with soil arching effects, are considered. To examine the suitability of the proposed method of threedimensional stability analysis in practice, overall stability of the spill-reinforced shallow tunnel at facing is evaluated, and the predicted safety factors are compared with results from twotimensional analyses. Using the proposed method of threetimensional limit equilibrium stability analysis of the smile-reinforced shallow tunnel in soft ground, a parametric study is also made to investigate the effects of various design parameters such as tunnel depth, smile length and wadial spill spacing. With slight modifications the analytical method of threeiimensional stability analysis proposed may also be extended for the analysis and design of steel pipe reinforced multi -step grouting technique frequently used as a supplementary reinforcing method in soft ground tunnel construction.

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A Study on Speech Recognition Using the HM-Net Topology Design Algorithm Based on Decision Tree State-clustering (결정트리 상태 클러스터링에 의한 HM-Net 구조결정 알고리즘을 이용한 음성인식에 관한 연구)

  • 정현열;정호열;오세진;황철준;김범국
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.199-210
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we carried out the study on speech recognition using the KM-Net topology design algorithm based on decision tree state-clustering to improve the performance of acoustic models in speech recognition. The Korean has many allophonic and grammatical rules compared to other languages, so we investigate the allophonic variations, which defined the Korean phonetics, and construct the phoneme question set for phonetic decision tree. The basic idea of the HM-Net topology design algorithm is that it has the basic structure of SSS (Successive State Splitting) algorithm and split again the states of the context-dependent acoustic models pre-constructed. That is, it have generated. the phonetic decision tree using the phoneme question sets each the state of models, and have iteratively trained the state sequence of the context-dependent acoustic models using the PDT-SSS (Phonetic Decision Tree-based SSS) algorithm. To verify the effectiveness of the above algorithm we carried out the speech recognition experiments for 452 words of center for Korean language Engineering (KLE452) and 200 sentences of air flight reservation task (YNU200). Experimental results show that the recognition accuracy has progressively improved according to the number of states variations after perform the splitting of states in the phoneme, word and continuous speech recognition experiments respectively. Through the experiments, we have got the average 71.5%, 99.2% of the phoneme, word recognition accuracy when the state number is 2,000, respectively and the average 91.6% of the continuous speech recognition accuracy when the state number is 800. Also we haute carried out the word recognition experiments using the HTK (HMM Too1kit) which is performed the state tying, compared to share the parameters of the HM-Net topology design algorithm. In word recognition experiments, the HM-Net topology design algorithm has an average of 4.0% higher recognition accuracy than the context-dependent acoustic models generated by the HTK implying the effectiveness of it.

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.