• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.1-24
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• 2015

We estimate the natural rate of Unemployment in Korea, using job finding and separation rates. The estimation results suggest that both job finding and separation rates of Korea have increased after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. However, we don't find evidence of significant increase in the trend of the natural rate of unemployment. Overall our finding suggests that both job creation and destruction have increased.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.904-915
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• 2018

We demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict the unemployment rate, a real-world indicator. We present a novel method for predicting the unemployment rate using social media analysis based on natural language processing and statistical modeling. The system collects social media contents including news articles, blogs, and tweets written in Korean, and then extracts data for modeling using part-of-speech tagging and sentiment analysis techniques. The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The proposed method quantifies the social moods expressed in social media contents, whereas the existing methods simply present social tendencies. Our model derived a 27.9% improvement in error reduction compared to a Google Index-based model in the mean absolute percentage error metric.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.19-29
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• 2018

Purpose - This study empirically analyses the changes in unemployment rates to understand push factors of generating wage pressure and how it affects the aggregate demand in Korea and the United States. We use a structural macroeconomic model which is centered on the labor market and simultaneously explains the natural rate of unemployment and deviations. Research design, data and methodology - We attempt to empirically analyse the unemployment rates through two countries to analyse the economic effects of real wages and aggregate demand between 2000 and 2016. We introduce having estimated the whole model that the growth of unemployment into the part caused by each of these factors. Results - The results of this study show that in the long run, there is not only a natural level of employment but also a natural level of real demand are positively related. in the short run, demand can vary from bring about changes in employment by means of price or wage surprises. Conclusions - The pressure of demand in the labor market shows up strongly in both countries. The estimated labor-demand equation are consistent with this framework and generally have well defined real wage and demand effects.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.3-62
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• 2004

This paper estimates Korea's natural rate of unemployment using various estimation methods such as pure time-series methods, reduced-form methods, and structural form methods, with discussion about relative advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. This paper also provides the confidence interval of the estimated natural rate of unemployment by the Monte Carlo integration method. Though multivariate unobserved component model exhibits better performance in many aspects than other estimation methods, awareness should be raised for a potential misspecification problem of a multivariate unobserved component model. Considering that each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to make an inference on the natural rate of unemployment based on common results among various methods. Korea's natural rate of unemployment was estimated to be around 3.8~4.0% on average in the period of 1979:I~1987:IV, and to decline to 2.5~2.9% in the period of 1988:I~1997:IV. During the Asian crisis, it is estimated to peak at near 4.8% and to have been on a downward trend since then.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.89-109
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• 2012

This paper evaluate the robustness of the Okun relationship based on Korean data for 1979~2008. For estimating a natural unemployment rate, this study uses time series econometric methodologies. This paper finds some interesting results; first of all, a bench mark estimates of Okun's ${\beta}$ range from 2 to 4 with different methodologies. This is a little bit higher scale than that of Lee(2000)'s results, which estimated the Okun's coefficient on the advanced countries' 1955~1996. Secondly, we test an asymmetric behavior of unemployment rate on business cycle. But the results are mixed. Finally we cannot find the evidence of structural break for the periods of 1979~80 and 1997~98 crises.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.55-66
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship and effects of variables both directly and indirectly (e.g., investment (INV), government expenditure (GE), unemployment rate (UR), economic growth (EG), and income inequality). The analytical phases consist, first, to transform the data using the Log Natural (Ln) method. Second, to check normality and multicollinearity of data. Third, to test direct effects of variables (government expenditure and investment effect on the unemployment rate and economic growth; investment on government expenditure; economic growth on unemployment rate; economic growth and unemployment rate on income inequality). Fourth, to test indirect effects using Sobel test, which involves UR and EG as intervening variable. Fifth, to test hypotheses with p-value < 0.05. The results of the study reveal that, of the 12 relationships, statistics show that 11 variations of the association have significant positive and negative effects. Theoretically, the different characters and goals of GE and INV in each country will have a different impact on EG and UR goals. The study provides an input, especially for the government. To create optimal EG through GE and INV, it is necessary to allocate budgets to industrial sectors that can absorb a massive labor force and to new economic growth sectors.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.306-324
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to analyze green growth issues such as employment, education and training, social capital and nature's standing right from the complementary perspective between natural environment conservation and economic growth. Green growth can be defined as a growth which lowers an increasing rate of entropy and at the same time improves our living standard. Green growth paradigm requires a quite amount of understanding the laws of thermodynamics and the uncertainty principle as the highest orders which regulate our overall socio-economic behaviors. They suggest that socio-economic growth is a mere transformation process of natural energy from one form to another and they increases natural manmade entropy over time. The most important issue of green growth policy may be a problem concerning employment and/or unemployment since green growth may induce inevitable movement of resources from the existing industries to the green sector. In particular, green industries will demand more highly specialized manpower than the existing ones. Without a well-designed new training education system and social capital accumulation toward environmental concerns, green growth may accompany a substantial amount of structural involuntary frictional unemployment. This may increase not only wealth-distribution disparity but also political instability. In order to achieve harmonious green growth, we should recognize that there are important complementary relationships between green and growth. Our society should also be able to innovate the existing educational system to accumulate social capital, to create a new sharing system, and to admit nature's standing right. Although the 2003 lawsuit case of Korean Salamander in Cheonseong Mountain went against plaintiff, it would provide apparently our society with a way of green development ahead.