• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multivariate regression models

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Comparison of National Occupational Accident Fatality Rates using Statistical Analysis on Economic and Social Indicators (경제⋅사회지표의 다변량 통계 분석을 활용한 국가 간 산업재해 사고사망 상대수준 비교)

  • Kyunghun, Kim;Sudong, Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.128-135
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    • 2022
  • The comparative evaluation of occupational accident fatality rates (OAFRs) of different countries is complicated owing to the differences in their level of socio-economic development. However, such evaluation is necessary to assess the national occupational safety and health system of a country. This study proposes a statistical method to compare the OAFRs of countries taking into consideration the difference in their level of socio-economic development. We first collected data on the socio-economic indicators and OAFRs of 11 countries over a 30-year period. Next, based on literature survey and statistical correlation analysis, we selected the significant independent variables and built multiple linear regression models to predict OAFR. We also determined the groups of countries having heterogeneous relationships between the independent variables and OAFRs, which are represented by the regression models. The proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the OAFR of Korea with the OAFRs of 10 other developed countries.

An ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage identification

  • Guangwei Lin;Yi Zhang;Enjian Cai;Taisen Zhao;Zhaoyan Li
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-81
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    • 2023
  • This study presents an ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage diagnosis. In the developed framework, the structure is initially decomposed into a set of substructures. The autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) model is established first for structural damage localization based structural motion equation. The wavelet packet decomposition is utilized to extract the damage-sensitive node energy in different frequency bands for constructing structural surrogate models. Four methods, including Kriging predictor (KRG), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), are selected as candidate structural surrogate models. These models are then resampled by bootstrapping and combined to obtain an ensemble model by probabilistic ensemble. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy principal is adopted to search for new design points for sample space updating, yielding a more robust ensemble model. Through the iterations, a framework of surrogate ensemble learning based model updating with high model construction efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The specificities of the method are discussed and investigated in a case study.

Spatial Diffusion Patterns of the Organic Farms in Korea and the Geographical Characteristics (한국 친환경농업의 공간적 확산 양상과 그 지리적 함의)

  • Hyun, Ki-Soon;Lee, Keum-Sook
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.377-393
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    • 2011
  • This study aims to indicate the spatial characteristics of the changes in the Korean farm land. In particular, we analyze the spatial diffusion patterns of organic farms increasing rapidly with the growth in the agricultural product markets as well as the demand for safe food and sustainable growth. For the purpose, we examine the changes in the distribution patterns of organic farms between year 2000 and 2005. We analyze the agglomeration pattern by Location Quotient (LQ) and Local indicator of spatial association (LISA). Organic farms have been spread out from the outscuirts of Seoul, the capital city, to the traditional agriculture spetilized area in the southern parts of the nation. In order to analyze the relationships between organic farm distribution and the geographical variables affecting the organic farming, we develop multivariate regression models. Our findings indicate that organic farming is related with the number of agriculture-based business and information technique adaptation as well as the level of education and farmers age.

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Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Financial Industries and the Relationships with Socio-economic Variables: The case of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (금융산업의 분포특성 및 사회.경제적 변수와의 관계 분석: 수도권 지역을 사례로)

  • Moon, Eun Jin;Lee, Keumsook
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.512-527
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    • 2013
  • This study examines the spatial distribution characteristics of financial industry which has been a necessary service for contemporary urban life. In particular, we analyze the spatial distribution patterns of money lending business which is considered with informal financial services as well as the spatial distribution patterns of banks which are representative of the institutional financial services. For the purpose, their density distribution patterns are explored by Kernel density analysis for both financial services in first. Moran's I coefficients are estimated for these two financial services to clarify the distintion in their geographical concentration patterns. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis show stark differences between the center city and outskirts of the Seoul metropolitan area. Multivariate regression models are developed to explain the relationships between the spatial distributions of financial services and geographical variables. Finally, we discuss financial exclusion problem in the Metropolitan Seoul based on these spatial distribution characteristics.

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Trends and Appropriateness of Outpatient Prescription Drug Use in Veterans (보훈의료지원 대상자의 외래 처방의약품 사용경향과 적정성 평가)

  • Lee, Iyn-Hyang;Shim, Da-Young
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study analyzed the national claims data of veterans to generate scientific evidence of the trends and appropriateness of their drug utilization in an outpatient setting. Methods: The claims data were provided by the Health Insurance Review & Assessment (HIRA). Through sampling and matching data, we selected two comparable groups; Veterans vs. National Health Insurance (NHI) patients and Veterans vs. Medical Aid (MAID) patients. Drug use and costs were compared between groups by using multivariate gamma regression models to account for the skewed distribution, and therapeutic duplication was analyzed by using multivariate logistic regression models. Results: In equivalent conditions, veteran patients made fewer visits to medical institutions (0.88 vs. 1), had 1.86 times more drug use, and paid 1.4 times more drug costs than NHI patients (p<0.05); similarly, veteran patients made fewer visits to medical institutions (0.96 vs. 1), had 1.11 times more drug use, and paid 0.95 times less drug costs than MAID patients (p<0.05). The risk of therapeutic duplication was 1.7 times higher (OR=1.657) in veteran patients than in NHI patients and 1.3 times higher (OR=1.311) than in MAID patients (p<0.0001). Conclusion: Similar patterns of drug use were found in veteran patients and MAID patients. There were greater concerns about the drug use behavior in veteran patients, with longer prescribing days and a higher rate of therapeutic duplication, than in MAID patients. Efforts should be made to measure if any inefficiency exists in veterans' drug use behavior.

Simultaneous Determination of Anionic and Nonionic Surfactants Using Multivariate Calibration Method (다변량 분석법에 의한 Anionic Surfactant와 Nonionic Surfactant의 동시정량)

  • Sang Hak Lee;Soon Nam Kwon;Bum Mok Son
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2003
  • A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of anionic and nonionic surfactant based on the application of multivariate calibration method such as principal component regression(PCR) and partial least squares(PLS) has been studied. The calibration models in PCR and PLS were obtained from the spectral data in the range of 400~700 nm for each standard of a calibration set of 26 standards, each containing different amounts of two surfactants. The relative standard error of prediction(RSEP$_{\alpha}$) was obtained to assess the model goodness in quantifying each analyte in a 5 validation samples which containing different amounts of two surfactants.

Inverter-Based Solar Power Prediction Algorithm Using Artificial Neural Network Regression Model (인공 신경망 회귀 모델을 활용한 인버터 기반 태양광 발전량 예측 알고리즘)

  • Gun-Ha Park;Su-Chang Lim;Jong-Chan Kim
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.383-388
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    • 2024
  • This paper is a study to derive the predicted value of power generation based on the photovoltaic power generation data measured in Jeollanam-do, South Korea. Multivariate variables such as direct current, alternating current, and environmental data were measured in the inverter to measure the amount of power generation, and pre-processing was performed to ensure the stability and reliability of the measured values. Correlation analysis used only data with high correlation with power generation in time series data for prediction using partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Deep learning models were used to measure the amount of power generation to predict the amount of photovoltaic power generation, and the results of correlation analysis of each multivariate variable were used to increase the prediction accuracy. Learning using refined data was more stable than when existing data were used as it was, and the solar power generation prediction algorithm was improved by using only highly correlated variables among multivariate variables by reflecting the correlation analysis results.

Association between job types of economically active population and sleep appropriateness among South Koreans (국내 경제활동 인구의 직업유형별 적정수면과의 연관성)

  • Kim, Sun Jung;Kim, Dong Jun;Gim, Eun Na;Yu, Tae Gyu
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2020
  • Background: As of 2016, average Koreans sleep 7 hours and 42 minutes, the lowest figure among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) countries, and the number of people with sleep disorders reached 561,000. Accordingly, the government has promoted the provision of 'Multiple Sleep Test' to strengthen the diagnosis service for patients with 'sleep disorder' in july 2018. As a result, healthcare costs for patients with sleep disorder is on the rise every year. In this study, we utilized 'Appropriate Sleep' criteria of United States's National Sleep Foundation(NSF) then investigated Korean's sleep pertinence using 「7th National Health and Nutrition Survey for 2016-2018」 by different occupational type, demographic characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, and health behaviors. Methods: We performed descriptive analysis to examine differences of sleep appropriateness by various sample characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine sleep appropriateness by occupational type and other variables. We also analyzed subgroup models to investigate. Results: As a result, a total of 1,948 (18.37%) study subjects experienced in-appropriate sleep. Results of the Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that blue color group had a higher odds ratio (OR) for experiencing in-appropriate sleep (OR=1.179). In addition, the odds ratio of experienced in-appropriate sleep among the elderly aged 70 and over was 2.698, and the odds ratio of the overstressed group was 1.299. Furthermore, sub-group analysis showed that blue color job of female(Or=1.334), high school or below(OR=1.404), divorce/death/separation(OR=2.039), 25%ile-50%lie income group(OR=1.411) more likely experienced in-appropriate sleep. Conclusion: Growing sleep disorder patients and related health care costs are expected. Government should apply detailed 'total periodic sleep disorder management policy' including pre-consultation, examination, diagnosis, treatment, post-consultation, self-management especially to vulnerable population that this study found.

A Comparative Study on Prediction Performance of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models for General Contractors in Korea Construction Industry

  • Seung-Kyu Yoo;Jae-Kyu Choi;Ju-Hyung Kim;Jae-Jun Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.432-438
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of the present thesis is to develop bankruptcy prediction models capable of being applied to the Korean construction industry and to deduce an optimal model through comparative evaluation of final developed models. A study population was selected as general contractors in the Korean construction industry. In order to ease the sample securing and reliability of data, it was limited to general contractors receiving external audit from the government. The study samples are divided into a bankrupt company group and a non-bankrupt company group. The bankruptcy, insolvency, declaration of insolvency, workout and corporate reorganization were used as selection criteria of a bankrupt company. A company that is not included in the selection criteria of the bankrupt company group was selected as a non-bankrupt company. Accordingly, the study sample is composed of a total of 112 samples and is composed of 48 bankrupt companies and 64 non-bankrupt companies. A financial ratio was used as early predictors for development of an estimation model. A total of 90 financial ratios were used and were divided into growth, profitability, productivity and added value. The MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) model and BLRA (Binary Logistic Regression Analysis) model were used for development of bankruptcy prediction models. The MDA model is an analysis method often used in the past bankruptcy prediction literature, and the BLRA is an analysis method capable of avoiding equal variance assumption. The stepwise (MDA) and forward stepwise method (BLRA) were used for selection of predictor variables in case of model construction. Twenty two variables were finally used in MDA and BLRA models according to timing of bankruptcy. The ROC-Curve Analysis and Classification Analysis were used for analysis of prediction performance of estimation models. The correct classification rate of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows: 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 83.04%, BLRA: 93.75%); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 77.68%, BLRA: 78.57%); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 84.82%, BLRA: 91.96%). The AUC (Area Under Curve) of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows. : 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.933, BLRA: 0.978); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.852, BLRA: 0.875); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.938, BLRA: 0.975). As a result of the present research, accuracy of the BLRA model is higher than the MDA model and its prediction performance is improved.

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Bond strength prediction of spliced GFRP bars in concrete beams using soft computing methods

  • Shahri, Saeed Farahi;Mousavi, Seyed Roohollah
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2021
  • The bond between the concrete and bar is a main factor affecting the performance of the reinforced concrete (RC) members, and since the steel corrosion reduces the bond strength, studying the bond behavior of concrete and GFRP bars is quite necessary. In this research, a database including 112 concrete beam test specimens reinforced with spliced GFRP bars in the splitting failure mode has been collected and used to estimate the concrete-GFRP bar bond strength. This paper aims to accurately estimate the bond strength of spliced GFRP bars in concrete beams by applying three soft computing models including multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), Kriging, and M5 model tree. Since the selection of regularization parameters greatly affects the fitting of MARS, Kriging, and M5 models, the regularization parameters have been so optimized as to maximize the training data convergence coefficient. Three hybrid model coupling soft computing methods and genetic algorithm is proposed to automatically perform the trial and error process for finding appropriate modeling regularization parameters. Results have shown that proposed models have significantly increased the prediction accuracy compared to previous models. The proposed MARS, Kriging, and M5 models have improved the convergence coefficient by about 65, 63 and 49%, respectively, compared to the best previous model.