• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple-indicator Model

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Prediction of New Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 based on Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest (다중 선형 회귀와 랜덤 포레스트 기반의 코로나19 신규 확진자 예측)

  • Kim, Jun Su;Choi, Byung-Jae
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.249-255
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    • 2022
  • The COVID-19 virus appeared in 2019 and is extremely contagious. Because it is very infectious and has a huge impact on people's mobility. In this paper, multiple linear regression and random forest models are used to predict the number of COVID-19 cases using COVID-19 infection status data (open source data provided by the Ministry of health and welfare) and Google Mobility Data, which can check the liquidity of various categories. The data has been divided into two sets. The first dataset is COVID-19 infection status data and all six variables of Google Mobility Data. The second dataset is COVID-19 infection status data and only two variables of Google Mobility Data: (1) Retail stores and leisure facilities (2) Grocery stores and pharmacies. The models' performance has been compared using the mean absolute error indicator. We also a correlation analysis of the random forest model and the multiple linear regression model.

Cumulative damage modeling for RC girder bridges under probabilistic multiple earthquake scenarios

  • Lang Liu;Hao Luo;Mingming Wang;Yanhang Wang;Changqi Zhao;Nanyue Shi
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2024
  • This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for estimating accumulative damage of bridge structures under multiple seismic excitations, in the framework of site-specific probabilistic hazard analysis. Specifically, a typical earthquake-prone region in China is chosen to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to find the mean annual rate (MAR) of ground motion intensity at a specific level, based on which, a mass of ground motion observations is selected to construct random earthquake sequences with various number of shocks. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is implemented on the finite element (FE) model of a RC girder bridge at the site of interest, to investigate structural responses under different earthquake sequences, and to develop predictive model for cumulative damage computation, in which, a scalar seismic intensity measure (IM) is adopted and its performance in damage prediction is discussed by an experimental column. Furthermore, a mathematic model is established to calculate occurrence probability of earthquakes with various number of shocks, based on PSHA and homogenous Poisson random process, and a modified cumulative damage indicator is proposed, accounting for probabilistic occurrence of various earthquake scenarios. At end, the applicability of the proposed methodology to main shock and aftershock scenarios is validated, and characteristics of damage accumulation under different multiple earthquake scenarios are discussed.

Hazard prediction of coal and gas outburst based on fisher discriminant analysis

  • Chen, Liang;Wang, Enyuan;Feng, Junjun;Wang, Xiaoran;Li, Xuelong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.861-879
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    • 2017
  • Coal and gas outburst is a serious dynamic disaster that occurs during coal mining and threatens the lives of coal miners. Currently, coal and gas outburst is commonly predicted using single indicator and its critical value. However, single indicator is unable to fully reflect all of the factors impacting outburst risk and has poor prediction accuracy. Therefore, a more accurate prediction method is necessary. In this work, we first analyzed on-site impacting factors and precursors of coal and gas outburst; then, we constructed a Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) index system using the gas adsorption index of drilling cutting ${\Delta}h_2$, the drilling cutting weight S, the initial velocity of gas emission from borehole q, the thickness of soft coal h, and the maximum ratio of post-blasting gas emission peak to pre-blasting gas emission $B_{max}$; finally, we studied an FDA-based multiple indicators discriminant model of coal and gas outburst, and applied the discriminant model to predict coal and gas outburst. The results showed that the discriminant model has 100% prediction accuracy, even when some conventional indexes are lower than the warning criteria. The FDA method has a broad application prospects in coal and gas outburst prediction.

Bayesian Inversion of Gravity and Resistivity Data: Detection of Lava Tunnel

  • Kwon, Byung-Doo;Oh, Seok-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 2002
  • Bayesian inversion for gravity and resistivity data was performed to investigate the cavity structure appearing as a lava tunnel in Cheju Island, Korea. Dipole-dipole DC resistivity data were proposed for a prior information of gravity data and we applied the geostatistical techniques such as kriging and simulation algorithms to provide a prior model information and covariance matrix in data domain. The inverted resistivity section gave the indicator variogram modeling for each threshold and it provided spatial uncertainty to give a prior PDF by sequential indicator simulations. We also presented a more objective way to make data covariance matrix that reflects the state of the achieved field data by geostatistical technique, cross-validation. Then Gaussian approximation was adopted for the inference of characteristics of the marginal distributions of model parameters and Broyden update for simple calculation of sensitivity matrix and SVD was applied. Generally cavity investigation by geophysical exploration is difficult and success is hard to be achieved. However, this exotic multiple interpretations showed remarkable improvement and stability for interpretation when compared to data-fit alone results, and suggested the possibility of diverse application for Bayesian inversion in geophysical inverse problem.

Incremental Ensemble Learning for The Combination of Multiple Models of Locally Weighted Regression Using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리즘을 이용한 국소가중회귀의 다중모델 결합을 위한 점진적 앙상블 학습)

  • Kim, Sang Hun;Chung, Byung Hee;Lee, Gun Ho
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2018
  • The LWR (Locally Weighted Regression) model, which is traditionally a lazy learning model, is designed to obtain the solution of the prediction according to the input variable, the query point, and it is a kind of the regression equation in the short interval obtained as a result of the learning that gives a higher weight value closer to the query point. We study on an incremental ensemble learning approach for LWR, a form of lazy learning and memory-based learning. The proposed incremental ensemble learning method of LWR is to sequentially generate and integrate LWR models over time using a genetic algorithm to obtain a solution of a specific query point. The weaknesses of existing LWR models are that multiple LWR models can be generated based on the indicator function and data sample selection, and the quality of the predictions can also vary depending on this model. However, no research has been conducted to solve the problem of selection or combination of multiple LWR models. In this study, after generating the initial LWR model according to the indicator function and the sample data set, we iterate evolution learning process to obtain the proper indicator function and assess the LWR models applied to the other sample data sets to overcome the data set bias. We adopt Eager learning method to generate and store LWR model gradually when data is generated for all sections. In order to obtain a prediction solution at a specific point in time, an LWR model is generated based on newly generated data within a predetermined interval and then combined with existing LWR models in a section using a genetic algorithm. The proposed method shows better results than the method of selecting multiple LWR models using the simple average method. The results of this study are compared with the predicted results using multiple regression analysis by applying the real data such as the amount of traffic per hour in a specific area and hourly sales of a resting place of the highway, etc.

Design and Performance Gain Evaluation of a Multi-Rank Codebook Utilizing Statistical Properties of the Spatial Channel Model (공간 채널 모델의 통계적 특성을 반영한 다중 랭크 코드북의 설계 및 성능 이득 평가)

  • Kim, Changhyeon;Sung, Wonjin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.723-731
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    • 2016
  • A core technological base to provide enhanced data rates required by 5G mobile wireless communications is the improved bandwidth efficiency using massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmission. MIMO transmission requires the channel estimation using the channel state information reference signaling (CSI-RS) and appropriate beamforming, thus the design of the codebook defining proper beamforming vectors is an important issue. In this paper, we propose a multi-rank codebook based on the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) matrix, by utilizing statistical properties of the channel generated by the spatial channel model (SCM). The proposed method includes a structural change of the precoding matrix indicator (PMI) by considering the phase difference distributions between adjacent antenna elements, as well as the selected codevector characteristics of each transmission layer. Performance gain of the proposed method is evaluated and verified by making the performance comparison to the 3GPP standard codebooks adopted by Long-Term Evolution (LTE) systems.

An Empirical Study on the Analysis of Chinese Foreign Students' Academic Achievement and Fallout (중국 유학생의 학업성취 및 중도탈락 분석에 관한 실증연구)

  • Chae, Dong Woo;Chen, Guo Hua;Jung, Kun Oh
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.37-54
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    • 2020
  • In response to the recent decline in the school-age population, universities have made attracting foreign students a major policy task for universities. As a result, the number of foreign students increased rapidly in terms of quantity, but in terms of quality, the risk is inevitable. Accordingly, the government presented education and internationalization competency certification system indicators on the basis of which quality control of students was systematized. Based on the above certification system, this study focused on analyzing the multiple factors that are actually given to the academic adaptation (performance) of the 2200 students who entered a certain university. In addition, factors other than the certification system index were discovered to comprehensively track how they affect the academic performance of students studying abroad. The researcher found the multi-reciprocal model analysis showed that the difference between the learner and the moderator was significant, and whether or not they had the Korean proficiency test (TOPIK) was significant. It also said that it could have a direct impact on Chinese University Entrance Exams (高考) are significant. If a model that is very effective in selecting students is established by each university and used as an indicator through this study, it will serve as a basis for efficient selection of students.

Implementation of Fire Risk Estimation System for various Fire Situations using Multiple Sensors (다중 센서들을 이용한 다양한 화재 상황의 위험도 추정 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Kwangjae;Lee, Youn-Sung
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.394-398
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a fire detection system based on quantitative risk estimation is presented. Multiple sensors are used to build a comprehensive indicator that represents the risk of fire quantitatively. The proposed fire risk estimation method consists of two stages which determines the occurrence of fire and estimates the toxicity of the surveillance area. In the first stage, fire is reliably detected under diverse fire scenarios. The risk of fire is estimated in the second stage. Applying Purser's Fractional Effective Dose (FED) model which quantitates harmfulness of toxic gases, the risk of the surveillance area and evacuation time are calculated. A fire experiment conducted using four different types of combustion materials for the verification of the system resulted in a maximum error rate of 12.5%. By using FED calculation and risk estimation methods, the proposed system can detect various signs of fire faster than conventional systems.

Learning motivation of groups classified based on the longitudinal change trajectory of mathematics academic achievement: For South Korean students

  • Yongseok Kim
    • Research in Mathematical Education
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.129-150
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    • 2024
  • This study utilized South Korean elementary and middle school student data to examine the longitudinal change trajectories of learning motivation types according to the longitudinal change trajectories of mathematics academic achievement. Growth mixture modeling, latent growth model, and multiple indicator latent growth model were used to examine various change trajectories for longitudinal data. As a result of the analysis, it was classified into 4 subgroups with similar longitudinal change trajectories of mathematics academic achievement, and the characteristics of the mathematics subject, which emphasize systematicity, appeared. Furthermore, higher mathematics academic achievement was associated with higher self-determination and higher academic motivation. And as the grade level increases, amotivation increases and self-determination decreases. This study suggests that teaching and learning support using this is necessary because the level of learning motivation according to self-determination is different depending on the level of mathematics academic achievement reflecting the characteristics of the student.

System-Level Performance of Limited Feedback Schemes for Massive MIMO

  • Choi, Yongin;Lee, Jaewon;Rim, Minjoong;Kang, Chung Gu;Nam, Junyoung;Ko, Young-Jo
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.280-290
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    • 2016
  • To implement high-order multiuser multiple input and multiple output (MU-MIMO) for massive MIMO systems, there must be a feedback scheme that can warrant its performance with a limited signaling overhead. The interference-to-noise ratio can be a basis for a novel form of Codebook (CB)-based MU-MIMO feedback scheme. The objective of this paper is to verify such a scheme's performance under a practical system configuration with a 3D channel model in various radio environments. We evaluate the performance of various CB-based feedback schemes with different types of overhead reduction approaches, providing an experimental ground with which to optimize a CB-based MU-MIMO feedback scheme while identifying the design constraints for a massive MIMO system.