• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial probit model(MNP)

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An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Choice of New Farming Type (취농 유형 선택에 영향을 미치는 요인분석)

  • Kim, Seongsup;Lee, In Kyu;Jeong, Jae Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the factors influencing the choice of new farming type in order to prepare the countermeasures against structural changes of farm labor force. The analytical model was the multinomial logit model(MNL). The test for Independence and Irrelevance Alternatives(IIA) assumption in MNL shows that the IIA assumption in our data is rejected. Alternatively, we chose the multinomial probit model(MNP) that does not assume IIA. Data were obtained from 2010 census of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Statistics Korea. New farming types are succession(13.9%), return-to-farming(45.0%), part-time-farming(32.5%) and etc(8.6%). Analysis results showed that the characteristics of farms, commodity, management, and region influenced the choice of new farming type. This study is expected to help policy makers to produce support policies by new farming types in order to increase the number of new farmers and to make them easier to settle down in agriculture.

Estimating the Attribute Values of 4 Major River Estuaries in Korea -Focusing on Testing for the IIA Assumption in MNL Model and the Alternative Models- (4대강 하구의 속성 가치 추정 -다항로짓모형에서 IIA가정의 검토와 대안 모형을 중심으로-)

  • Shin, Youngchul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.521-545
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    • 2013
  • This study applied choice experiment(CE) method(which is included in the stated preference method) to estimate values of some important attributes(i.e. type of estuary, water quality of river in estuary, water quality of sea in estuary, biodiversity level of estuary) of 4 major river(Hangang, Guemgang, Yeongsangang, Nakdonggang) estuaries in Korea. Although the multinomial logit model(MNL) is generally applied to analyse the CE data, testing for IIA assumption with the Hausman and McFadden test in MNL model shows that the IIA assumption in our data is rejected. Therefore, the heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV) and the multinomial probit model(MNP) which are not based on the IIA assumption are used to analyse our CE data. As results, the coefficients and the elicited economic values of MNL model are seriously distorted if the IIA assumption is not satisfied in MNL model. The estimation results of MNP model show that the economic values are elicited as 352.3 billion won(95% C.I. 261.1 - 477.8 billion won) for natural estuary, 411.5 billion won(95% C.I. 338.5 - 525.5 billion won) for one grade improvement of river water quality in estuary, 358.9 billion won(95% C.I. 292.5 - 457.0 billion won) for one grade improvement of sea water quality in estuary, and 151.9 billion won(95% C.I. 99.0 - 218.6 billion won) for one grade improvement of biodiversity level of estuary. Therefore, the value of estuary is reached to 2,197.0 billion won(95% C.I. 1,721.0 - 2,879.9 billion won) if any natural estuary in 4 major rivers has good water quality of river in estuary(i.e. 2nd grade), good water quality of sea in estuary(i.e. 1st grade), and good biodiversity level of estuary.