• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial model

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Market Segmentation by Preferable kind of Coffee Type (선호커피유형에 따른 세분시장의 특성)

  • Choi, Seong-Im;Yim, Eun-Soon;Moon, Hye-Sun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.475-485
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this research study was to identify the factors that influence comsumer who make decisions on preferred coffee types. Data was collected for a month from September $12^{th}$ to October $10^{th}$, 2010 from 807 participants who visited a cafe' in Seoul. The Limdep(LIMited DEPendent) 8.0 program was used in analyzing the determinants for preferred types of coffee using the multinomial logit model(MNL) approach. The results revealed that there were four taste preference groups being Espresso, Americano, Cafe' Late, and Cafe' Mocha ; as well as confirming that demographic characteristics influenced the coffee selection attributes, type of packaging, preferred coffee brand, and visit frequencies. This study found seven coffee selection attributes were significant factors in influencing patrons choices for purchasing speciality coffee being age range, profession, packing status, elation, superficial appearance, weight control, and habitual, respectively. The research reflects the coffee selection attributes by the customers' preference and concludes that it would be helpful to make marketing strategy for particular coffee brands.

A Study on the Policy Demand for Population Inflow in Population Reduction Areas (인구감소지역의 인구유입을 위한 정책 수요에 관한 연구)

  • Hyangmi Yi;Bong Moon Choi;Jongha Kim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2023
  • This study empirically analyzes the policy demand for population inflow in Hongcheon-gun, a region that has experienced population decline over the past decade. The results of this study based on the multinominal logit model provide the policy implications as follows. First, due to the differing factors influencing the demand for population inflow policies among the young and the elderly, local governments should clearly define the policy targets for population inflow. Second, in the context of policy demand for population inflow through corporate attraction, we identify statistically significant and positive effects of the length of residence for both young and old people, and the level of formal education for the elderly. These results emphasize the importance of formulating population inflow policies distinctively targeted for the young and the elderly generations, respectively, thereby increasing population inflow in the population reduction area.

Age-stratified analysis of temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis using cone-beam computed tomography

  • Hee-Jeong Song;Hang-Moon Choi;Bo-Mi Shin;Young-Jun Kim;Moon-Soo Park;Cheul Kim
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate age-stratified radiographic features in temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis using cone-beam computed tomography. Materials and Methods: In total, 210 joints from 183 patients(144 females, 39 males, ranging from 12 to 88 years old with a mean age of 44.75±19.97 years) diagnosed with temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis were stratified by age. Mandibular condyle position and bony changes (flattening, erosion, osteophytes, subchondral sclerosis, and subchondral pseudocysts in both the condyle and articular eminence, thickening of the glenoid fossa, joint space narrowing, and joint loose bodies) were evaluated through cone-beam computed tomography. After adjusting for sex, the association between age groups and radiographic findings was analyzed using both a multiple regression model and a multinomial logistic regression model(α=0.05). Results: The prevalence of joint space narrowing and protruded condyle position in the glenoid fossa significantly increased with age (P<0.05). The risks of bony changes, including osteophytes and subchondral pseudocysts in the condyle; flattening, erosion, osteophyte, and subchondral sclerosis in the articular eminence; joint loose bodies; and thickening of the glenoid fossa, also significantly rose with increasing age (P<0.05). The number of radiographic findings increased with age; in particular, the increase was more pronounced in the temporal bone than in the mandibular condyle (P<0.05). Conclusion: Increasing age was associated with a higher frequency and greater diversity of bony changes in the temporal bone, as well as a protruded condyle position in the glenoid fossa, resulting in noticeable joint space narrowing in temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis.

Calculation of Travel Time Values in Seoul Metropolitan Area Considering Unique Travel Patterns (수도권 통행 특성을 고려한 통행시간가치 산정 연구)

  • KIM, Kyung Hyun;LEE, Jang-Ho;YUN, Ilsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.481-498
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    • 2017
  • Travel time reduction benefit is the most important benefit item in the feasibility study of transportation infrastructure investment projects and calculated by using the value of travel time. The current feasibility study guideline (5th edition) calculate the value of non-business ravel time in a metropolitan area, using the ratio of the value of non-business travel time to business travel time calculated based on the nationwide inter-regional traffic survey data of 1999. The characteristics of metropolitan trips are different from those of nationwide regional trips. Metropolitan trips have frequent transfers between multiple public transits and long-time commuter trips. Therefore, this research aims to calculate the value of travel time reflecting traffic characteristics in a metropolitan area by improving the limitation of current calculation methods. To reflect these characteristics, this research extracts commuter trips from non-business trips and calculates the value of travel time for commuter trips. The results of the likelihood ratio test for the commuter trip model and the non-business trip model are found to be statistically significant. An integrated public transportation model was also estimated in this study to reflect the trip conditions of the Seoul metropolitan area integrated fare system. The results of comparing coefficients between bus and subway in the integrated public transit model indicated that there were no statistically significant differences between the two modes.

An Analysis on Consumer Preference for Attributes of Agricultural Box Scheme (농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Dong;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Jang, Woo-Whan;Lim, Cheong-Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyze consumer preferences based on the agricultural box scheme attributes, and make a suggestion for business revival. We estimate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for box scheme attributes using a choice experiment. Attributes include the bundle method, the delivery method, and price. To select an efficient model for statistical analysis, we evaluate the conditional logit model, heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV model), multinomial probit model, and mixed logit model under different assumptions. The results of these four models show that the bundle method, the delivery method, and price are statistically significant in explaining the probability of participation in a box scheme. The results of likelihood ratio tests show that the heteroscedastic extreme value model is the most appropriate for our survey data. The results also indicate that MWTP for a change from fixed type to selection type is KRW 7,096.6. MWTP for a change from parcel service to direct delivery and cold-chain delivery are KRW 3,497.5 and KRW 7,532.7, respectively. The results of this study may contribute to the government's local food policies.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

Prediction of Estimated Sales Amount through New Open of Department Store (대형백화점의 신규출점에 따른 예상매출액 추정)

  • Park, Chul-ju;Ko, Youn-bae;Youn, Myoung-kil;Kim, Won-kyum
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2006
  • Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Supply Chain-based Freight Distribution Channel Choice Model using Distribution Channel Analysis (유통경로분석을 통한 공급사슬기반의 화물유통경로선택모형 개발)

  • Go, Yeong-Seung;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Su;Park, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

A Mode Choice Model with Market Segmentation of Beneficiary Group of New Transit Facility (신교통수단 수혜자의 시장분할을 고려한 수단선택 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Duck Nyung;Choi, A Reum;Hwang, Jae-Min;Kim, Dong-Kyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.667-677
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    • 2013
  • The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.