• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial Logit model

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선택 실험법을 이용한 친환경 보일러의 시장 점유율 예측

  • Kim, Mi-Jeong;Bae, Jeong-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.595-625
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    • 2012
  • Recently environment-friendly pellet boilers have interests as emissions of greenhouse gases are regulated internationally and energy security becomes more important to oil addicted countries including Republic of Korea. But the Korean market for pellet boilers is on the initial stage due to the high production costs relative to other conventional boilers. Hence the Korean government has supported financially and promoted the pellet boiler business. In this sense, it would contribute market stratergy and effective promotion policy for both of the government and private companies if we can forecast market shares of pellet boilers appropriately. For this purpose, this study surveyed potential consumers' preferences on pellet boilers among various alternatives using a choice experiment reflecting intangible costs. As the market share of new technology increases, intangible costs decline. According to different intangible cost scenarios, we experimented people's preferences on oil, gas, electric, and pellet boilers. A multinomial logit model was employed to estimate coefficient parameters of common attributes for various alternative boilers. Based on the estimates, we forecasted market shares of individual boilers. We found that as intangible costs decline, the market share of pellet boiler increase substantically while market shares of electric and gas boilers decrease dramatically. The market share of oil boiler did not change significantly. Meanwhile, as people are more rich, more educated, and exposed to advertisement on pellet boilers, the likelihood of choosing the pellet boiler increases.

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Identifying Latent Classes in Early Adolescents' Overt Aggression and Testing Determinants of the Classes Using Semi-parametric Group-based Approach (준모수적 집단 중심 방법을 적용한 청소년기 초기의 공격성 변화에 따른 잠재계층 분류와 관련요인 검증)

  • No, Un-Kyung;Hong, Se-Hee
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.37-58
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study were to identify the subgroups (i.e., latent classes) depending on early adolescents' change patterns in aggression and to test the effects of individual-background variables on determining the latent classes. For these goals, we applied Nagin's(1999) semi-parametric group-based approach to the Korean Youth Panel Study. Results showed that four latent classes were identified, which could be defined based on the patterns as low-level group, increasing group, intermediate-level group, and high-level group. By adding gender, self-control, parent attachment, teacher attachment, and the number of delinquent friends to the unconditional latent class model, we tested the effects of the variables on the latent classes. Multinomial logit analysis showed that gender, self-control, teacher attachment, and the number of delinquent friends were significant determinants of the latent classes. Findings from this study suggest the need to consider heterogeneity in the study of early adolescents' aggression to facilitate more refined targeting of intervention program.

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Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model (다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석)

  • Kim, Chang-Seob;Shin, Jung-Woo;Lee, Mi-Suk;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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