• 제목/요약/키워드: Multi-class Prediction

검색결과 43건 처리시간 0.028초

Multi-Class SVM+MTL for the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating with Structured Data

  • Ren, Gang;Hong, Taeho;Park, YoungKi
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.579-596
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    • 2015
  • Many studies have focused on the prediction of corporate credit rating using various data mining techniques. One of the most frequently used algorithms is support vector machines (SVM), and recently, novel techniques such as SVM+ and SVM+MTL have emerged. This paper intends to show the applicability of such new techniques to multi-classification and corporate credit rating and compare them with conventional SVM regarding prediction performance. We solve multi-class SVM+ and SVM+MTL problems by constructing several binary classifiers. Furthermore, to demonstrate the robustness and outstanding performance of SVM+MTL algorithm over other techniques, we utilized four typical multi-class processing methods in our experiments. The results show that SVM+MTL outperforms both conventional SVM and novel SVM+ in predicting corporate credit rating. This study contributes to the literature by showing the applicability of new techniques such as SVM+ and SVM+MTL and the outperformance of SVM+MTL over conventional techniques. Thus, this study enriches solving techniques for addressing multi-class problems such as corporate credit rating prediction.

Optimal Solution of Classification (Prediction) Problem

  • Mohammad S. Khrisat
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제23권9호
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    • pp.129-133
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    • 2023
  • Classification or prediction problem is how to solve it using a specific feature to obtain the predicted class. A wheat seeds specifications 4 3 classes of seeds will be used in a prediction process. A multi linear regression will be built, and a prediction error ratio will be calculated. To enhance the prediction ratio an ANN model will be built and trained. The obtained results will be examined to show how to make a prediction tool capable to compute a predicted class number very close to the target class number.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

Feature Selection for Multi-Class Support Vector Machines Using an Impurity Measure of Classification Trees: An Application to the Credit Rating of S&P 500 Companies

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Park, Ji-Young
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2011
  • Support vector machines (SVMs), a machine learning technique, has been applied to not only binary classification problems such as bankruptcy prediction but also multi-class problems such as corporate credit ratings. However, in general, the performance of SVMs can be easily worse than the best alternative model to SVMs according to the selection of predictors, even though SVMs has the distinguishing feature of successfully classifying and predicting in a lot of dichotomous or multi-class problems. For overcoming the weakness of SVMs, this study has proposed an approach for selecting features for multi-class SVMs that utilize the impurity measures of classification trees. For the selection of the input features, we employed the C4.5 and CART algorithms, including the stepwise method of discriminant analysis, which is a well-known method for selecting features. We have built a multi-class SVMs model for credit rating using the above method and presented experimental results with data regarding S&P 500 companies.

레이블 멱집합 분류와 다중클래스 확률추정을 사용한 단백질 세포내 위치 예측 (Prediction of Protein Subcellular Localization using Label Power-set Classification and Multi-class Probability Estimates)

  • 지상문
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제18권10호
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    • pp.2562-2570
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    • 2014
  • 단백질의 기능을 유추할 수 있는 중요한 정보중의 하나는 단백질이 존재하는 세포내 위치이다. 최근에는 하나의 단백질이 동시에 존재하는 여러 세포내 위치를 예측하는 연구가 활발하다. 본 논문에서는 단백질이 존재하는 세포내의 다중위치를 예측하기 위해서 레이블 멱집합 방법을 개선한다. 레이블 멱집합 방법으로 분류한 다중위치들을 예측 확률에 따라 결합하여 최종적인 다중레이블로 분류한다. 각 다중위치에 대한 정확한 확률적 기여를 구하기 위하여 쌍별 비교와 오류정정 출력코드를 사용한 다중클래스 확률추정 방법을 적용하였다. 단백질 세포내 위치 예측 실험에 제안한 방법을 적용하여 성능이 향상됨을 보였다.

머신러닝 CatBoost 다중 분류 알고리즘을 이용한 조류 발생 예측 모형 성능 평가 연구 (Evaluation of Multi-classification Model Performance for Algal Bloom Prediction Using CatBoost)

  • 김준오;박정수
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • Monitoring and prediction of water quality are essential for effective river pollution prevention and water quality management. In this study, a multi-classification model was developed to predict chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) level in rivers. A model was developed using CatBoost, a novel ensemble machine learning algorithm. The model was developed using hourly field monitoring data collected from January 1 to December 31, 2015. For model development, chl-a was classified into class 1 (Chl-a≤10 ㎍/L), class 2 (10<Chl-a≤50 ㎍/L), and class 3 (Chl-a>50 ㎍/L), where the number of data used for the model training were 27,192, 11,031, and 511, respectively. The macro averages of precision, recall, and F1-score for the three classes were 0.58, 0.58, and 0.58, respectively, while the weighted averages were 0.89, 0.90, and 0.89, for precision, recall, and F1-score, respectively. The model showed relatively poor performance for class 3 where the number of observations was much smaller compared to the other two classes. The imbalance of data distribution among the three classes was resolved by using the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) algorithm, where the number of data used for model training was evenly distributed as 26,868 for each class. The model performance was improved with the macro averages of precision, rcall, and F1-score of the three classes as 0.58, 0.70, and 0.59, respectively, while the weighted averages were 0.88, 0.84, and 0.86 after SMOTE application.

회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습 (Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating)

  • 김명종
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • 회사채 신용등급은 투자자의 입장에서는 수익률 결정의 중요한 요소이며 기업의 입장에서는 자본비용 및 기업 가치와 관련된 중요한 재무의사결정사항으로 정교한 신용등급 예측 모형의 개발은 재무 및 회계 분야에서 오랫동안 전통적인 연구 주제가 되어왔다. 그러나, 회사채 신용등급 예측 모형의 성과와 관련된 가장 중요한 문제는 등급별 데이터의 불균형 문제이다. 예측 문제에 있어서 데이터 불균형(Data imbalance) 은 사용되는 표본이 특정 범주에 편중되었을 때 나타난다. 데이터 불균형이 심화됨에 따라 범주 사이의 분류경계영역이 왜곡되므로 분류자의 학습성과가 저하되게 된다. 본 연구에서는 데이터 불균형 문제가 존재하는 다분류 문제를 효과적으로 해결하기 위한 다분류 기하평균 부스팅 기법 (Multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting MGM-Boost)을 제안하고자 한다. MGM-Boost 알고리즘은 부스팅 알고리즘에 기하평균 개념을 도입한 것으로 오분류된 표본에 대한 학습을 강화할 수 있으며 불균형 분포를 보이는 각 범주의 예측정확도를 동시에 고려한 학습이 가능하다는 장점이 있다. 회사채 신용등급 예측문제를 활용하여 MGM-Boost의 성과를 검증한 결과 SVM 및 AdaBoost 기법과 비교하여 통계적으로 유의적인 성과개선 효과를 보여주었으며 데이터 불균형 하에서도 벤치마킹 모형과 비교하여 견고한 학습성과를 나타냈다.

단위 신경망을 이용한 단백질 기능 예측 (Modular neural network in prediction of protein function)

  • 황두성
    • 정보처리학회논문지B
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    • 제13B권1호
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2006
  • 단백질의 기능 예측 모델은 guilt-by-association 개념을 바탕으로 단백질-단백질 상호작용 맵을 이용하고 있다. 이 방법은 목표 단백질이 기능이 알려진 단백질과 상호작용이 없는 경우 기능 예측이 불가능하다. 본 논문에서는 단백질 기능 예측 모델을 K-class 다중 분류 문제로 재 정의하고 단백질-단백질 상호작용 데이터 및 단백질의 알려진 속성 등을 학습 모델에 이용한 단위신경망의 설계와 응용을 제안한다. 제안하는 모델은 Yeast 단백질 데이터의 기능 예측에서 단백질-단백질 상호작용 데이터를 이용하는 방법에 비해 분류 예측율에서 우수한 성능을 보였으며 또한 상호작용이 밝혀지지 않은 단백질의 기능 예측을 할 수 있다.

딥러닝을 이용한 화재 발생 예측 이미지 분할 (Image Segmentation for Fire Prediction using Deep Learning)

  • 김태훈;박종진
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2023
  • 본 논문에서는 화재로부터 실시간으로 화염과 연기를 감지하고 분할하기 위해 딥러닝 모델을 사용하였다. 이를 위해 의미론적 분할에서 우수한 성능을 보이는 U-NET을 사용하고 다중 클래스를 이용하여 화재의 불꽃과 연기를 구분 하였다. 제안된 기법을 이용하여 학습한 결과, 손실 오차와 정확도 값이 각각 0.0486과 0.97996으로 매우 양호하였다. 객체 감지에 사용되는 IOU 값도 0.849로 매우 좋았다. 학습된 모델을 이용하여 학습에 사용하지 않은 화재 이미지를 예측한 결과, 화재의 불꽃과 연기가 잘 감지되고 분할되었으며, 연기의 색상도 잘 구분되었다. 제안된 기법을 이용하여 화재 예측 및 감지 시스템 구축 등에 사용될 수 있다.

머신러닝을 활용한 냉간압조용 선재의 다중 분류 및 지능형 매칭 시스템 개발 (Developing a Multiclass Classification and Intelligent Matching System for Cold Rolled Steel Wire using Machine Learning)

  • 이근원;이동건;권영준;조기훈;박성수;조기섭
    • 열처리공학회지
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we present a system for identifying equivalent grades of standardized wire rod steel based on alloy composition using machine learning techniques. The system comprises two models, one based on a supervised multi-class classification algorithm and the other based on unsupervised autoencoder algorithm. Our evaluation showed that the supervised model exhibited superior performance in terms of prediction stability and reliability of prediction results. This system provides a useful tool for non-experts seeking similar grades of steel based on alloy composition.