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A hidden Markov model for long term drought forecasting in South Korea

  • Chen, Si;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.225-225
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    • 2015
  • Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

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Basic Study for Improving the Fire Safety of Postpartum Care Centers (산후조리원의 화재안전성 향상을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Won;Jin, Seung-Hyeon;Kim, Si-Kuk;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2019
  • The present article reports the results of a basic study for improving the fire safety of postpartum care centers. In the case of postnatal care center facilities, newborn babies and mothers reside 24 hours a day, and as they are located in high-rise and multi-use facilities, measures for fire safety are necessary, but there are no domestic manuals. This study examined the problems of fire safety through an analysis of fire cases of postpartum care facilities and related regulations, and conducted surveys on the fire safety consciousness of employees and mothers regarding postpartum care management. The fire safety consciousness of the mother was analyzed.

Tensile Property Analysis of NCF Composite Laminated Structure for HP-CRTM Forming Process (HP-CRTM 성형공법을 적용하기 위한 NCF 복합재 적층구조에 따른 인장특성 분석)

  • Byeon, Ki-Seok;Shin, Yu-Jeong;Jeung, Han-Kyu;Park, Si-Woo;Roh, Chun-Su;Je, Jin-Soo;Kwon, Ki-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, the HP-CRTM method, which has the ability to produce carbon fiber-reinforce plastic composites at high speeds, has come into the spotlight in the automotive parts industry, which demands high productivity. Multi-axial carbon fabric, an intermediate material used in this HP-CRTM molding process, consists of layered fibers without crimp, which makes it better in terms of tensile and shear strength than the original woven fabrics. The NCF (non-crimp fabric) can form the layers of the carbon fiber, which have different longitudinal and lateral directions, and ${\pm}{\theta}$ degrees, depending on the product's properties. In this research, preforms were made with carbon fibers of ${\pm}45^{\circ}$ and $0/90^{\circ}$, which were lamination structures under seven different conditions, in order to create the optimal laminated structure for automobile reinforcement center floor tunnels. Carbon fiber composites were created using each of the seven differently laminated preforms, and polyurethane was used as the base material. The specimens were manufactured in accordance with the ASTM D3039 standards, and the effect of the NCF lamination structure on the mechanical properties was confirmed by a tensile test.

Usage of Waterbirds on the Artificial Floating Islands in Reservoir using UAV (무인항공기를 활용한 저수지 인공식물섬 조류 이용현황 분석)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Tae;Kim, Young;Kim, Hye-Joung;Kim, Seoung-Yeal;Kim, Whee-Moon;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2019
  • Water-Birds are the birds that occupy the highest proportion in Korea, inland wetlands and reservoirs provide them with a good environment as habitat, but their habitats have been losing because of thoughtless development. Therefore, artificial plant islands in reservoirs are important for improving habitat environment and providing food resources. However, there are no research and standards on the built and management of artificial plant islands. So this study is to find out the density of bird using artificial plant island as habitat through monitoring using UAV focus on the Cheonho-reservoirs located in Seobuk-gu, Cheonan-si(Middle Chungcheong Province). Further, the correlation analysis with environmental factors was conducted to determine the effect of artificial plant islands as habitats for water-birds. The supervised classification of the three-time images taken by the drone identified 244 white-billed ducks and 46 mandarin ducks. The utilization rate was different for each photographed date, and more individuals were identified in wet artificial plant islands than dry ones. As a result of analyzing the utilization follow environmental factors, the distance from the trail showed a significant correlation, and the other factors did not have a statistically significant effect. This study is the first case of the UAV monitoring method of the water-birds using artificial plant islands in the reservoir, and can be used as the basic data for the built and management.

Analysis of Engine Load Factor for Agricultural Cultivator during Plow and Rotary Tillage Operation (플라우 및 로터리 작업 시 농업용 관리기의 엔진 부하율 분석)

  • Si-Eon Lee;Taek-Jin Kim;Yong-Joo Kim;Ryu-Gap Lim;Wan-Soo Kim
    • Journal of Drive and Control
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2023
  • The aim of this study was to measure and analyze engine load factor (LF) according to working conditions (operation type and gear stage) of small agricultural multi-purpose cultivator to estimate the emission of air pollutants. To calculate LF, a torque sensor capable of collecting torque and rotational speed was installed on the engine output shaft and DAQ was used to collect data. A field test was conducted with major operation of a cultivator and tillage operations (plow tillage and rotary tillage). Engine power was calculated using engine torque and rotational speed and LF was calculated using real-time power and rated power. In addition, unified LF was calculated using the weight for each operation and the average LF for each operation. As a result, average LF values at 1.87 and 3.10 km/h by plow tillage were 0.50 and 0.69, respectively. Average LF values at 1.87 and 3.10 km/h by rotary tillage were 0.70 and 0.78, respectively. Furthermore, unified LF calculated in consideration of the weight factor showed a value of 0.65, which was 135% higher than the conventional LF (0.48). Results of this study could be used as basic information for realizing LF values in the field of agricultural machinery.

Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of Pan-african Granitoids in Kaiama, North Central, Nigeria

  • Aliyu Ohiani Umaru;Olugbenga Okunlola;Umaru Adamu Danbatta;Olusegun G. Olisa
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.259-275
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    • 2023
  • Pan African granitoids of Kaiama is comprised of K-feldspar rich granites, porphyritic granites, and granitic gneiss that are intruded by quartz veins and aplitic veins and dykes which trend NE-SW. In order to establish the geochemical signatures, petrogenesis, and tectonic settings of the lithological units, petrological, petrographical, and geochemical studies was carried out. Petrographic analysis reveals that the granitoids are dominantly composed of quartz, plagioclase feldspar, biotite, and k-feldspar with occasional muscovites, sericite, and opaque minerals that constitute very low proportion. Major, trace, and rare earth elements geochemical data reveal that the rocks have moderate to high silica (SiO2=63-79.7%) and alumina (Al2O3=11.85-16.15) contents that correlate with the abundance of quartz, feldspars, and biotite. The rocks are calc-alkaline, peraluminous (ASI=1.0-<1.2), and S-type granitoids sourced by melting of pre-existing metasedimentary or sedimentary rocks containing Al, Na, and K oxides. They plot dominantly in the WPG and VAG fields suggesting emplacement in a post-collisional tectonic setting. On a multi-element variation diagram, the granitoids show depletion in Ba, K, P, Rb, and Ti while enrichment was observed for Th, U, Nd, Pb and Sm. Their rare-earth elements pattern is characterized by moderate fractionation ((La/Yb)N=0.52-38.24) and pronounced negative Eu-anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.02-1.22) that points to the preservation of plagioclase from the source magma. Generally, the geochemical features of the granitoids show that they were derived by the partial melting of crustal rocks with some input from greywacke and pelitic materials in a typical post-collisional tectonic setting.

Ginseng saponin metabolite 20(S)-protopanaxadiol relieves pulmonary fibrosis by multiple-targets signaling pathways

  • Guoqing Ren;Weichao Lv;Yue Ding;Lei Wang;ZhengGuo Cui;Renshi Li;Jiangwei Tian;Chaofeng Zhang
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.543-551
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    • 2023
  • Background: Panax ginseng Meyer is a representative Chinese herbal medicine with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity. 20(S)-Protopanaxadiol (PPD) has been isolated from ginseng and shown to have promising pharmacological activities. However, effects of PDD on pulmonary fibrosis (PF) have not been reported. We hypothesize that PDD may reverse inflammation-induced PF and be a novel therapeutic strategy. Methods: Adult male C57BL/6 mice were used to establish a model of PF induced by bleomycin (BLM). The pulmonary index was measured, and histological and immunohistochemical examinations were made. Cell cultures of mouse alveolar epithelial cells were analyzed with Western blotting, coimmunoprecipitation, immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry, siRNA transfection, cellular thermal shift assay and qRT-PCR. Results: The survival rate of PPD-treated mice was higher than that of untreated BLM-challenged mice. Expression of fibrotic hallmarks, including α-SMA, TGF-β1 and collagen I, was reduced by PPD treatment, indicating attenuation of PF. Mice exposed to BLM had higher STING levels in lung tissue, and this was reduced by phosphorylated AMPK after activation by PPD. The role of phosphorylated AMPK in suppressing STING was confirmed in TGF-b1-incubated cells. Both in vivo and in vitro analyses indicated that PPD treatment attenuated BLM-induced PF by modulating the AMPK/STING signaling pathway. Conclusion: PPD ameliorated BLM-induced PF by multi-target regulation. The current study may help develop new therapeutic strategies for preventing PF.

Enhanced Deep Feature Reconstruction : Texture Defect Detection and Segmentation through Preservation of Multi-scale Features (개선된 Deep Feature Reconstruction : 다중 스케일 특징의 보존을 통한 텍스쳐 결함 감지 및 분할)

  • Jongwook Si;Sungyoung Kim
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.369-377
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    • 2023
  • In the industrial manufacturing sector, quality control is pivotal for minimizing defect rates; inadequate management can result in additional costs and production delays. This study underscores the significance of detecting texture defects in manufactured goods and proposes a more precise defect detection technique. While the DFR(Deep Feature Reconstruction) model adopted an approach based on feature map amalgamation and reconstruction, it had inherent limitations. Consequently, we incorporated a new loss function using statistical methodologies, integrated a skip connection structure, and conducted parameter tuning to overcome constraints. When this enhanced model was applied to the texture category of the MVTec-AD dataset, it recorded a 2.3% higher Defect Segmentation AUC compared to previous methods, and the overall defect detection performance was improved. These findings attest to the significant contribution of the proposed method in defect detection through the reconstruction of feature map combinations.

Solution-Processed Indium-Gallium Oxide Thin-Film Transistors for Power Electronic Applications (전력반도체 응용을 위한 용액 공정 인듐-갈륨 산화물 반도체 박막 트랜지스터의 성능과 안정성 향상 연구)

  • Se-Hyun Kim;Jeong Min Lee;Daniel Kofi Azati;Min-Kyu Kim;Yujin Jung;Kang-Jun Baeg
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.400-406
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    • 2024
  • Next-generation wide-bandgap semiconductors such as SiC, GaN, and Ga2O3 are being considered as potential replacements for current silicon-based power devices due to their high mobility, larger size, and production of high-quality wafers at a moderate cost. In this study, we investigate the gradual modulation of chemical composition in multi-stacked metal oxide semiconductor thin films to enhance the performance and bias stability of thin-film transistors (TFTs). It demonstrates that adjusting the Ga ratio in the indium gallium oxide (IGO) semiconductor allows for precise control over the threshold voltage and enhances device stability. Moreover, employing multiple deposition techniques addresses the inherent limitations of solution-processed amorphous oxide semiconductor TFTs by mitigating porosity induced by solvent evaporation. It is anticipated that solution-processed indium gallium oxide (IGO) semiconductors, with a Ga ratio exceeding 50%, can be utilized in the production of oxide semiconductors with wide band gaps. These materials hold promise for power electronic applications necessitating high voltage and current capabilities.

Exploring the Priority Area of Policy-based Forest Road Construction using Spatial Information (공간정보를 활용한 산림정책 기반 임도시공 우선지역 선정 연구)

  • Sang-Wook, LEE;Chul-Hee, LIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.94-106
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    • 2022
  • In order to increase timber self-sufficiency, Korea's 6th Basic Forest Plan aims to increase the density of forest roads to 12.8 m ha-1 by 2037. However, due to rapid re-forestation, current management infrastructure is insufficient, with just 4.8 m ha-1 of forest roads in 2017. This is partly due to time and cost limitations on the process of forest road feasibility evaluation, which considers factors such as topography and forest conditions. To solve this problem, we propose an eco-friendly and efficient forest road network planning method using a geographic information system (GIS), which can evaluate a potential road site remotely based on spatial information. To facilitate such planning, this study identifies forest road construction priorities that can be evaluated using spatial information, such as topography, forest type and forest disasters. A method of predicting the optimal route to connect a forest road with existing roads is also derived. Overlapping analysis was performed using GIS-MCE (which combines GIS with multi-criteria evaluation), targeting the areas of Cheongsong-gun and Buk-gu, Pohang-si, which have a low forest-road density. Each factor affecting the suitability of a proposed new forest road site was assigned a cost, creating a cost surface that facilitates prioritization for each forest type. The forest path's optimal route was then derived using least-cost path analysis. The results of this process were 30 forestry site recommendations in Cheongsong-gun and one in Buk-gu, Pohang-si; this would increase forest road density for the managed forest sites in Cheongsong-gun from 1.58 m ha-1 to 2.55 m ha-1. This evaluation method can contribute to the policy of increasing timber self-sufficiency by providing clear guidelines for selecting forest road construction sites and predicting optimal connections to the existing road network.