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Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront (비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.

A Study Of Design With Application On Of Gem Cutting Technique (보석 컷팅디자인을 활용한 보석산업활성화에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Myeong Soo;Park, Seungchul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.483-490
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    • 2012
  • In parallel with advancement of the industrial society and accompanied quality-of-life improvement, jewelry is now rather viewed as one of common accessories used in daily life, than as a luxurious item as treated before change of perception about it in the past, attracting thus gradually multiplying demand for it. Thanks to rapid spread of multi media like the Internet, an increasing number of people have come to develop great liking for exceptional design and unique format of jewelry products. Following drain of their reserves, natural gems are unlikely to meet the demand for them fully in the future. As a consequence, it seems essential to rely on synthetic, artificial, imitation jewelry or organic substances and quasi-mineral in amorphous structure for substitute jewelry. Since synthetic jewelry has such a great potential as substitute jewelry, it is expected to maximize added value to jewelry if and when accompanied with development of creative design and upgrading of processing technology for jewelry, in addition to various types of synthetic jewelry and glass that have been already put in use as substitute substances. Synthetic jewelry is thus believed to be able to greatly contribute to progress of the jewelry industry. In many countries of the world, jewelry and gem industry has been regarded as one of promising sectors vital in enriching the national wealth. In this context, the Korean Ministry of Finance and Economy announced in July 2007 "an activating policy for the jewelry and gem industry, declaring to cultivate and grow it to be new engine for the nation's growth". The present paper thus aims to conduct a study exclusively on cutting design of synthetic jewelry as a part of measures to activate the jewelry industry in Korea. Efforts are made to develop designs for jewelry that are unique and different from the conventional stereotyped form of polishing and are added with color, pattern and fashionable cutting. Priority is given in this regard to designing jewelry that may attract general public and may be shared by public beyond the limit of conventional design for jewelry and producing products that stand in contrast with other products. By upgrading the quality of jewelry design, competitiveness of the jewelry industry may be ensured and the creative area of jewelry design may be expanded by far.

Developing National Science Assessment System:Scientific Knowledge Domain (국가 수준의 과학 지식 평가 체제 개발)

  • Kwon, Jae-Sool;Choi, Byung-Soon;Kim, Chan-Jong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.601-615
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    • 1998
  • Establishing and evaluating science education policies and revising and monitoring the effectiveness of science curriculum should be based upon the results of systematic and scientific research studies. Advanced nations have already been administering and developing national level science assessments for these purposes. The science assessments administered in Korea have been reported having many limitations and problems, and not succeeded in providing data for science education policy making and curriculum reform. The major purpose of the study is developing national level science knowledge assessment system in order to identify longitudinal trends of elementary and secondary school students science knowledge achievements. The research team consisted of science education experts and teachers from various school levels, decided the directions and major elements of national level science knowledge assessment with the consultation of educational evaluation experts. Item developing ability of the researchers was improved by seminars? and workshops on national assessment in advanced nations and developing skills of writing science items. Nearly 500 items were developed and revised. Pilot test was administered with 958 students at various school levels. 380 items were selected and tested with 8766 students, and the characteristics were analyzed in terms of item response theory. The target populations for national level science knowledge assessment are 5th-grade of elementary school, 2nd-grade of middle school, 1st and 2nd-grade of high school students. The proper period for the assessment is February every year. Multi-stage clustered sampling method is desirable and rotated forms are recommendable for the test format. Bridge items should be introduced to compare the results of multiple tests, and various grades. Anchor items should also be used for longitudinal interpretations of the results. The items for elementary school require low to medium abilities, for middle school and first grade of high school require medium to high abilities and for 2nd-grade of high school high abilities. The discrimination ability of the items developed is high.

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Development and Application of Web-based Instruction Program for the Enriched Course of School Biology (중등 생물교과 심화과정 학습용 웹 기반 학습 프로그램 개발 및 적용)

  • Ye, Jin-Hee;Park, Chang-Bo;Seo, Hae-Ae;Song, Bang-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.299-313
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    • 2002
  • A web-based instruction program for the enriched course under the 7th Revised National Curriculum of Biology in Korea was developed and the application effects to learners were analyzed. For the development of the web-based instruction program, five topics of biology from the enriched courses through 7th to 10th grades in the middle and high school science textbooks were selected and modulated with interrogative sentences. Each topic of programs was divided into four activity sections according to the learners' activity procedures supplemented with explanations and evaluations. Each activity was hyper-linked to multi-layers and animations. Further, a virtual experiment was also developed and an evaluation section designed by Java Script was attached. Among five topics, one topic of 'Reproduction and development' at 9th grade level was selected to examine the effects on students' learning. Among 247 9th grade students in the research subject school, only 67 students were able to accessible to ultra-thin Internet cables with their computers at home and they became an experimental group. A control group was assigned to those who are similar level of school science achievement to the experiment group and did not use the web-based program. It was found that most of 9th grade students are able to use Internet at home, however, they do not prefer to use Internet for homework or task project. Rather, most of students used Internet for e-mail or information navigation. Students used internet to solve problems of science and perceived the benefits of Internet for science learning. However, there are not many students to utilize Internet for science homework or task project. Students expressed that they do not prefer to use a web-based learning program for science learning due to lack of interests in science. The effects on students who studied with this program appeared to be significantly high compared to those who did not study with this program. Students who studied with this program positively evaluated this program, in particular, they enjoyed animation effect and virtual experiments. It was concluded that a web-based program for science learning should be developed and distributed through Internet in an attractive and interesting format for students. It was also concluded that various web-based programs for science learning with animation effect and virtual experiments should be developed to increase students' interests in science as well as to improve students' science achievements.

A Study on the Records and Archives Management System in Japan : Focusing on the Electronic Public Documents Management (일본의 기록관리 제도 연구 법령과 전자공문서 관리를 중심으로)

  • Yi, Kyoung Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.45
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    • pp.219-253
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    • 2015
  • The Records Management System in Japan has been developed to a comprehensive and unitary records management system based on the records life-cycle principle from the enactment of 'the Public Records and Archives Management Act' in 2009 and its implementation in April, 2011. The scope of objects has also been extended to documents of independent administrative institutions and specific confidential documents on diplomacy and defense. In addition, a series of Electronic Documents Management Systems have been built for the transfer of electronic records to the National Archives of Japan, which is called the Electronic Records Archives of Japan, in connection with the records and archives management systems covering creation, management, transfer, preservation, and use of electronic records. This paper deals with the core contents and characteristics of the records management system of Japan, focusing on the operational structure of the records and archives management law and electronic documents management. Firstly, The Cabinet Office and professional groups in records and archives management started to work on reformation of the records management system from 2003 and resulted in enactment of the Public Records and Archives Management Act in 2009. In that sense, the Public Records and Archives Management Act can be evaluated as a result of constant activities of the records management community in Japan for realization of accountabilities of government agencies to the general public. Secondly, the Public Records Management Act of Japan has a coherent multi-layer structure from the law, enforcement ordinances, guidelines, and to institutional documents management regulations in the operational system. This is a systematic structure for providing practical business units of each administrative agency with detailed standards on the basis of guidelines and making them to prepare their own specific application standards related to their unique businesses. Unlike the past, the National Archives of Japan became to be able to identify specific historial documents which should be transferred to the archives by selecting important historical records as early as possible after creating and receiving them in each institution through the retention schedule. Thirdly, Japan started to operate a system in regard to electronic records transfer and preservation in 2011. In order to prepare for it, each administrative agency has used EDMS in creation and management of electronic records. A Guideline for the Standard Format and Media released by the Cabinet Office in 2010 is also for the transfer of electronic records to the Electronic Records Archives of Japan. In future, it is necessary to conduct further studies on activities of the records and archives management community in Japan, relating to long-term preservation and use of electronic records.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

The Impacts of Need for Cognitive Closure, Psychological Wellbeing, and Social Factors on Impulse Purchasing (인지폐합수요(认知闭合需要), 심리건강화사회인소대충동구매적영향(心理健康和社会因素对冲动购买的影响))

  • Lee, Myong-Han;Schellhase, Ralf;Koo, Dong-Mo;Lee, Mi-Jeong
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.44-56
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    • 2009
  • Impulse purchasing is defined as an immediate purchase with no pre-shopping intentions. Previous studies of impulse buying have focused primarily on factors linked to marketing mix variables, situational factors, and consumer demographics and traits. In previous studies, marketing mix variables such as product category, product type, and atmospheric factors including advertising, coupons, sales events, promotional stimuli at the point of sale, and media format have been used to evaluate product information. Some authors have also focused on situational factors surrounding the consumer. Factors such as the availability of credit card usage, time available, transportability of the products, and the presence and number of shopping companions were found to have a positive impact on impulse buying and/or impulse tendency. Research has also been conducted to evaluate the effects of individual characteristics such as the age, gender, and educational level of the consumer, as well as perceived crowding, stimulation, and the need for touch, on impulse purchasing. In summary, previous studies have found that all products can be purchased impulsively (Vohs and Faber, 2007), that situational factors affect and/or at least facilitate impulse purchasing behavior, and that various individual traits are closely linked to impulse buying. The recent introduction of new distribution channels such as home shopping channels, discount stores, and Internet stores that are open 24 hours a day increases the probability of impulse purchasing. However, previous literature has focused predominantly on situational and marketing variables and thus studies that consider critical consumer characteristics are still lacking. To fill this gap in the literature, the present study builds on this third tradition of research and focuses on individual trait variables, which have rarely been studied. More specifically, the current study investigates whether impulse buying tendency has a positive impact on impulse buying behavior, and evaluates how consumer characteristics such as the need for cognitive closure (NFCC), psychological wellbeing, and susceptibility to interpersonal influences affect the tendency of consumers towards impulse buying. The survey results reveal that while consumer affective impulsivity has a strong positive impact on impulse buying behavior, cognitive impulsivity has no impact on impulse buying behavior. Furthermore, affective impulse buying tendency is driven by sub-components of NFCC such as decisiveness and discomfort with ambiguity, psychological wellbeing constructs such as environmental control and purpose in life, and by normative and informational influences. In addition, cognitive impulse tendency is driven by sub-components of NFCC such as decisiveness, discomfort with ambiguity, and close-mindedness, and the psychological wellbeing constructs of environmental control, as well as normative and informational influences. The present study has significant theoretical implications. First, affective impulsivity has a strong impact on impulse purchase behavior. Previous studies based on affectivity and flow theories proposed that low to moderate levels of impulsivity are driven by reduced self-control or a failure of self-regulatory mechanisms. The present study confirms the above proposition. Second, the present study also contributes to the literature by confirming that impulse buying tendency can be viewed as a two-dimensional concept with both affective and cognitive dimensions, and illustrates that impulse purchase behavior is explained mainly by affective impulsivity, not by cognitive impulsivity. Third, the current study accommodates new constructs such as psychological wellbeing and NFCC as potential influencing factors in the research model, thereby contributing to the existing literature. Fourth, by incorporating multi-dimensional concepts such as psychological wellbeing and NFCC, more diverse aspects of consumer information processing can be evaluated. Fifth, the current study also extends the existing literature by confirming the two competing routes of normative and informational influences. Normative influence occurs when individuals conform to the expectations of others or to enhance his/her self-image. Whereas informational influence occurs when individuals search for information from knowledgeable others or making inferences based upon observations of the behavior of others. The present study shows that these two competing routes of social influence can be attributed to different sources of influence power. The current study also has many practical implications. First, it suggests that people with affective impulsivity may be primary targets to whom companies should pay closer attention. Cultivating a more amenable and mood-elevating shopping environment will appeal to this segment. Second, the present results demonstrate that NFCC is closely related to the cognitive dimension of impulsivity. These people are driven by careless thoughts, not by feelings or excitement. Rational advertising at the point of purchase will attract these customers. Third, people susceptible to normative influences are another potential target market. Retailers and manufacturers could appeal to this segment by advertising their products and/or services as products that can be used to identify with or conform to the expectations of others in the aspiration group. However, retailers should avoid targeting people susceptible to informational influences as a segment market. These people are engaged in an extensive information search relevant to their purchase, and therefore more elaborate, long-term rational advertising messages, which can be internalized into these consumers' thought processes, will appeal to this segment. The current findings should be interpreted with caution for several reasons. The study used a small convenience sample, and only investigated behavior in two dimensions. Accordingly, future studies should incorporate a sample with more diverse characteristics and measure different aspects of behavior. Future studies should also investigate personality traits closely related to affectivity theories. Trait variables such as sensory curiosity, interpersonal curiosity, and atmospheric responsiveness are interesting areas for future investigation.

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