• Title/Summary/Keyword: MonteCarlo simulation

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Probabilistic Kinematic Analysis of Rock Slope Stability Using Terrestrial LiDAR (지상라이다를 이용한 확률론적 해석기법 기반의 운동학적 안정성 해석)

  • Hong, Seok Kwon;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.231-241
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    • 2019
  • Kinematic analysis determines the stability of rock slope by analyzing the relationship between the slope face orientation and the discontinuity orientation. In this study, terrestrial LiDAR was used to obtain a large amount of discontinuity orientation data and then, the probabilistic characteristics of the orientation data obtained using terrestrial LiDAR were analyzed. Subsequently, the probabilistic kinematic analysis was carried out using the discontinuity orientations generated randomly from Fisher function in Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the probabilistic kinematic analysis was also performed using the actual orientation data obtained from the terrestrial LiDAR to compare their results. Consequently, the results of both probabilistic analyses showed similar results. Therefore, if sufficient orientation data are provided by other means such as terrestrial LiDAR, the probabilistic analysis will show reasonable results using the actual field data without randomly generating orientation data. In addition, the deterministic kinematic analysis was also carried out using representative orientation of discontinuity sets. The analysis result of the probabilistic analysis showed similar results with the deterministic analysis because the dispersion of the discontinuity orientations in a joint set is not large.

Change of Proton Bragg Peak by Variation of Material Thickness in Head Phantom using Geant4 (Geant4 전산모사를 이용한 두개골 팬텀의 물질 두께 변동에 따른 양성자 브래그 피크의 위치 변화)

  • Kim, You Me;Chon, Kwon Su
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.401-408
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    • 2021
  • Proton therapy using the Bragg peak is one of the radiation therapies and can deliver its maximum energy to the tumor with giving least energy for normal tissue. A cross-sectional image of the human body taken with the computed tomography (CT) has been used for radiation therapy planning. The HU values change according to the tube voltage, which lead to the change in the boundary and thickness of the anatomical structure on the CT image. This study examined the changes in the Bragg peak of the brain region according to the thickness variation in the head phantom composed of several materials using the Geant4. In the phantom composed of a single material, the Bragg peak according to the type of media and the incident energy of the proton beams were calculated, and the reliability of Geant4 code was verified by the Bragg peak. The variation of the peak in the brain region was examined when each thickness of the head phantom was changed. When the thickness of the soft tissue was changed, there was no change in the peak position, and for the skin the change in the peak was small. The change of the peak position was mainly changed when the bone thickness. In particular, when the bone was changed only or the bone was changed together with other tissues, the amount of change in the peak position was the same. It is considered that measurement of the accurate bone thickness in CT images is one of the key factors in depth-dose distribution of the radiation therapy planning.

A Study on Countermeasures for Risk Factors Through Risk Analysis of Earthwork (흙막이공의 리스크 분석을 통한 리스크 요인별 대응 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Byung Ju;Isah, Muritala Adebayo;Kim, Hyun Bee;Lee, Yang Gyu;Kim, Byung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.681-688
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    • 2022
  • According to a recent study, most construction companies in Korea do not manage risk effectively, and it is judged that the risk management system needs to be improved. In addition, most risk-related studies deal with risks from a macroscopic perspective, and there are few studies dealing with process risks at the project construction stage. Therefore, this study tried to suggest a risk response plan through analysis and classification of risk factors that may occur in retaining work among process risks. To this end, a workshop was held for risk experts to identify and analyze risks that may occur during the construction of retaining work for apartments. As a result of the study, it was expected that savings of KRW 4.97 billion would be possible in the 95 % confidence interval, and the maximum possible cost was reduced from KRW 15 billion to about KRW 10 billion. Based on the risk reduction ratio, it was found that risks that can be reduced without any special input cost, risks with large effects in response to risks, and risks with insignificant effects were found. Therefore, using the types and risk factors presented in this study as guides, it is expected that it will be helpful in successfully operating the project if an appropriate response strategy is prepared and systematically responded to the site conditions.

A Quantitative Study of the Effects of a Price Collar in the Korea Emissions Trading System on Emissions and Costs (배출권거래제 가격상하한제가 배출량 및 감축비용에 미치는 영향에 대한 정량적 연구)

  • Bae, Kyungeun;Yoo, Taejoung;Ahn, Young-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.261-290
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    • 2022
  • Although market stabilization measures have been triggered in the K-ETS, carbon price is still under uncertainty. Considering Korea's 2030 enhanced reduction target announced in October 2021, it is crucial to have practical stabilization measures to appropriately deal with price uncertainty. This study examines the quantitative effects of a price collar, which is considered as a means of alleviating price uncertainty, on expected cumulative emissions and abatement costs. There are three main scenarios: carbon tax, emissions trading system, and emissions trading system with a price collar. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to reflect uncertainty in emission. There are several results as follows: 1) In a price collar, domestic emission target is likely to be achieved with a lower expected abatement cost than other scenarios. In addition, there is a small amount of excess emissions in this research and it would be not critical(0.1% excess than target); 2) Prohibiting banking increases the expected abatement cost. This is because firms can not intertemporally reallocate allowances to match the firm's optimal emissions path; 3) With the adoption of a price collar, government's net revenue can be positive even if the government's purchase volume of emissions allowances is more than sales volume. This is because the government sells them at price ceiling and purchases them at price floor.

Development of Risk Analysis Structure for Large-scale Underground Construction in Urban Areas (도심지 대규모 지하공사의 리스크 분석 체계 개발)

  • Seo, Jong-Won;Yoon, Ji-Hyeok;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jee, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2010
  • Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

Reliability Estimation of Static Design Methods for Driven Steel Pipe Piles in Korea (국내 항타강관말뚝 설계법의 신뢰성평가)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Park, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Kyung-Jun;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Kwak, Ki-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2007
  • As a part of Load and Resistance Factor Design(LRFD) code development in Korea, in this paper an intensive reliability analysis was performed to evaluate reliability levels of the two static bearing capacity methods for driven steel pipe piles adopted in Korean Standards for Structure Foundations by the representative reliability methods of First Order Reliability Method(FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The resistance bias factors for the two static design methods were evaluated by comparing the representative measured bearing capacities with the design values. In determination of the representative bearing capacities of driven steel pipe piles, the 58 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests were collected and analyzed. The static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method using N values were applied to the calculation of the expected design bearing capacity of the piles. The two representative reliability methods(FORM, MCS) based computer programs were developed to facilitate the reliability analysis in this study. Mean Value First Order Second Moment(MVFOSM) approach that provides a simple closed-form solution and two advanced methods of FORM and MCS were used to conduct the intensive reliability analysis using the resistance bias factor statistics obtained, and the results were then compared. In addition, a parametric study was conducted to identify the sensibility and the influence of the random variables on the reliability analysis under consideration.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

A Study on Seismic Capacity Assessment of Long-Span Suspension Bridges by Construction Methods Considering Earthquake Characteristics (지진특성을 고려한 장경간 현수교량의 시공방안별 내진성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Sung Ho;Jang, Sun Jae;Lim, Nam Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2A
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2010
  • The numerical analysis and safety assessment by construction stages were considered the essential examination particular in order to solving the unstability of long-span bridges in the middle a construction. When estimating structural response characteristics by the construction stage analysis of long-span bridges, the influence of the near-field ground motion (NFGM) would be evaluated as a critical factor for the seismic design because it indicates clearly different aspects from the existing input earthquake motion data. Therefore, this study re-examined the response aspect of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics based on the response spectrum result, and advanced the presented numerical analysis program by the related research for conducting the construction stage analysis and reliability assessment of long-span bridges efficiently. The excellency of various construction schemes was assessed using the time history analysis result of critical member considering NFGM characteristics. For evaluating quantitative safety level, the reliability analysis was conducted considering the influence of external uncertainties included in random variables, and presented the safety index and failure probability of the critical construction stage by NFGM characteristics. In addition, the reliability result was examined the influence of internal uncertainties using monte carlo simulation (MCS), and assessed the distribution aspect of the essential analysis result. It is expected that this study will provide the basic information for the construction safety improvement when performing seismic design of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Absorbed Energy by Gold Nano-Particles for Proton (양성자에 대한 금 나노입자의 밀도에 따른 흡수 에너지의 몬테카를로 전산모사)

  • Kwon Su Chon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2024
  • Proton therapy is known for its superior treatment method due to Bragg peak. To enhance the therapeutic effects of protons, research has been conducted on distributing gold nanoparticles within tumors to increase the absorbed dose. While previous studies focused on handling gold nanoparticles at micrometer and nonometer scale, this study proposes a method to computationally estimate the effect of gold nanoparticles at the millimeter scale. The Geant4 toolkit was applied to computational modeling. Assuming a uniform distribution of water, similar to the human body, and gold nanoparticles, the concentration of gold nanoparticles was adjusted using density ratios. When the density ratio was 5%, the gain in absorbed energy due to gold nanoparticles was nearly twice that of the pure water phantom at the Bragg peak. As the density ratio increased, the gain in absorbed energy linearly increased. When gold nanoparticles were distributed in only one voxel at the Bragg peak, the energy of the protons affected only the neighboring voxels. However, in cases where gold nanoparticles were distributed over a wide area, the volume showing 95% of the maximum absorbed energy (9.46 keV) for the pure water phantom (9.95 keV) exhibited an improvement in absorbed energy over a region 16 times larger, and this region increased as the density ratio increased. Further research is needed to quantify the relationship between the density ratio of gold nanoparticles and the relative biological effect (RBE) in the millimeter scale.

A Technique for Selecting Quadrature Points for Dimension Reduction Method to Improve Efficiency in Reliability-based Design Optimization (신뢰성 기반 최적설계의 효율성 향상을 위한 차원감소법의 적분직교점 선정 기법)

  • Ha-Yeong Kim;Hyunkyoo Cho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2024
  • This paper proposes an efficient dimension reduction method (DRM) that considers the nonlinearity of the performance functions in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). The dimension reduction method evaluates the reliability more accurately than the first-order reliability method (FORM) using integration quadrature points and weights. However, its efficiency is hindered as the number of quadrature points increases owing to the need for an additional evaluation of the performance function. In this study, we assessed the nonlinearity of the performance function in RBDO and proposed criteria for determining the number of quadrature points based on the degree of nonlinearity. This approach suggests adjusting the number of quadrature points during each iteration of the RBDO process while maintaining the accuracy of theDRM while improving the computational efficiency. The nonlinearity of the performance function was evaluated using the angle between the vectors used in the maximum probable target point (MPTP) search. Numerical tests were conducted to determine the appropriate number of quadrature points according to the degree of nonlinearity. Through a 2D numerical example, it is confirmed that the proposed method improves the efficiency while maintaining the accuracy of the dimension reduction method or Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).