• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte Calro 기법

Search Result 6, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Is that possible to simulate daily runoff with one parameter? (하나 매개변수로 유출 모의 가능한가?)

  • Noh, Jaekyoung;An, Hyunuk;Lee, Jaenam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2017.05a
    • /
    • pp.29-29
    • /
    • 2017
  • 유역의 물수지를 강수, 증발산, 토양수분저류, 유출 등 성분으로 구성하고, 토양수분저류 상태에 따라 증발산과 유출이 변화하는 식을 기본식으로 구성하였으며, 물수지를 개선하는 매개변수를 변수화하는 개념을 도입하여 다음 식의 모형을 개발하였다. 여기서, ETa는 실제증발산량, ETo는 잠재증발산량, Q는 유출량, S는 토양수분저류량이고, C1은 증발산, C2, ${\alpha}$는 유출반응, C3, C4는 매개변수 ${\alpha}$를 변수화시키는 데 관련한 매개변수이다. $$ETa(i)=(1-e^{-c1{\times}s(i)}){\times}ETo_{(i)}$$ $$Q_{(i)}=S_{(i)}{\times}(1-e^{-c2{\times}s(i)})^{[(c3+e^{-c4{\times}s(i)}){\times}a]}$$ 모형의 검증을 위해 Monte Calro 기법으로 최적 매개변수를 결정한 결과 수많은 매개변수 조합이 최적영역에 분포되는 것을 확인하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 매개변수 하나만 남겨 놓고 나머지 매개변수는 상수화시켜도 모의결과가 똑같다는 결과를 관찰하였으며, 이를 토대로 하나 매개변수만으로 일 유출 모의가 가능하다고 결론을 내렸다. 하나의 매개변수는 ${\alpha}$를 우선 추천하고, C1도 유역의 토지이용에 따라 증발산이 변화하기 때문에 의미있다고 판단하고 있다. 하나의 매개변수를 결정하는 방법은 유출 자료가 있으면 유출량으로, 없으면 유출률을 맞추는 방법이며, 일반화하기 쉽고 실용성이 매우 높은 것으로 평가된다. 유역면적 $209km^2$인 보령댐의 2007년부터 2009년까지 Monte Calro 기법으로 매개변수를 결정한 결과 C1=0.0196, C2=0.0023, C3=0.3230, C4=0.0051, ${\alpha}=2.3304$ 이었으며, 이 때 연평균 강우량 1221.2mm, 유출량 651.2mm, 유출률 53.3%이었으며, $R^2=0.833$, RMSE=2.073, NSE=0.831이었고, 관측 유출량 610.8mm, 유출률 50.0%였다. 매개변수 C1, C2, C3, C4를 고정시키고 유출률 50%에 이를 때 ${\alpha}$는 2.6946이었으며, 이 때 $R^2=0.831$, RMSE=2.102, NSE=0.826이었고, 매개변수 C2, C3, C4, ${\alpha}$를 고정시키고 유출률 50%에 이를 때 C1은 0.0255이었으며, 이 때 $R^2=0.833$, RMSE=2.083, NSE=0.829이었다. 한편 똑같은 자료로 탱크모형은 $R^2=0.79$, RMSE=2.43, NSE=0.77이었고, SWAT 모형은 $R^2=0.56$, RMSE=3.97, NSE=0.40으로 나타난 것과 비교할 때, 개발된 모형의 성능이 우수한 것이라 결론내릴 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Nonparametric method in one-way layout based on joint placement (일원배치법에서 결합위치를 이용한 비모수 검정법)

  • Jeon, Kyoung-Ah;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.729-739
    • /
    • 2016
  • Kruskal and Wallis (1952) proposed a nonparametric method to test the differences between more than three independent treatments. This procedure uses rank in mixed sample combined with more than three unlike populations. This paper proposes a the new procedure based on joint placements for a one-way layout as extension of the joint placements described in Chung and Kim (2007). A Monte Carlo simulation study is adapted to compare the power of the proposed method with previous methods.

Structural Reliability Analysis of the Roket Motor Case considering Uncertainties in Material Properties (재료물성치의 분포를 고려한 로켓모터케이스의 구조 신뢰성 해석)

  • Ro, Young-Hee;Goo, Song-Hoe
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2011.11a
    • /
    • pp.523-526
    • /
    • 2011
  • This is concerned with the structural reliability analysis(RA) considering uncertainties in material properties. This method is performed by the stochastic process using Kriging with calculating the distribution of probability and equation of limit state for saving calculated and analyzed time. The proposed methodology is applied to the rocket motor case and compared with monte-calro simulation in efficiency and accuracy of this process.

  • PDF

Shielding Analysis of the Material and Thickness of Syringe Shield on the Radionuclide (방사성 핵종별 주사기 차폐기구의 재질 및 두께에 대한 차폐분석)

  • Cho, Yong-In;Kim, Chang-Soo;Kang, Se-Sik;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.15 no.7
    • /
    • pp.282-288
    • /
    • 2015
  • A monte carlo simulation about shielding material and thickness of the syringe shield for radiation shield was performed. As a result of analysis, high atomic number materials such as tungsten, lead and bismuth have the highest shielding effect. However, $^{18}F$, $^{67}Ga$ and $^{111}In$ show high energy distribution in the region with thin shielding thickness. As the thickness of shielding materials increased, the energy distribution decreased due to reduction of ${\gamma}$-ray. In the case of low atomic number materials, they, showed energy distribution from highest to lowest, were barium sulfate, steel, stainless, iron and copper. Aluminum, plastic, concrete and water showed diverse aspect. they showed relatively high energy distribution because of increased ${\gamma}$-ray that penetrate the shield.

Sensitivity Analysis of Steel Frames Subjected to Progressive Collapse (철골조의 연쇄붕괴 민감도 해석)

  • Park, Jun-Hei;Kim, Jin-Koo;Lee, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.211-216
    • /
    • 2008
  • Recently a lot of researches have been conducted on the progressive collapse of structures which is the total collapse of structures initiated by localized damage. Most of the previous studies on the field of progressive collapse have followed deterministic approach without considering uncertainty involved in design variables, which results in unknown reliability of the analysis results. In this study the sensitivity analyses are carried out with design variables such as yield strength, live load, damping ratio, and elastic modulus on the vertical deflection of the joint from which a column is suddenly removed. The Monte Calro simulation, tornado diagram method, and the first order second moment method(FOSM) are applied for the sensitivity study. According to the nonlinear static analysis results, the vertical deflection is most affected by the variation of yield strength of beams. The nonlinear dynamic analyses show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield strength of beams and the structural damping ratio.

A Long-term Durability Prediction for RC Structures Exposed to Carbonation Using Probabilistic Approach (확률론적 기법을 이용한 탄산화 RC 구조물의 내구성 예측)

  • Jung, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Gyu-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.14 no.5
    • /
    • pp.119-127
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.