• 통상정보연구
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.353-370
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• 2004

In recent years, electronic finance, especially online banking and brokerage services has reshaped the financial landscape around the world For example, e-finance makes it possible to offer banking services around the world 24 hours a day. The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of e-finance and e-money, or with existing leading studies, is to survey how development of e-finance effects on monetary polices, and is to think out political devices to raise the efficiency of monetary polices.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.217-239
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• 2018

This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.81-101
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• 2021

This paper estimates the expectation-augmented Phillips curve, which explains inflation dynamics, in Korea. The phenomenon of low inflation in Korea has been going on for quite some time, in particular since 2012. During the Covid-19 crisis, due to low inflation expectations the operation of monetary policy was limited as the base rate approached the zero lower bound. The main objective of this paper is to estimate where and how tightly inflation expectations are anchored. It was found that long-term inflation expectations fell to around 1%, falling short of the inflation target, and that inflation expectations are strongly anchored to long-term expectations, which implies that the low inflation phenomenon is likely to extend into the future. The results also imply that even if inflation fluctuates due to temporary disturbances, it may converge to a level below the inflation target. The slight rebound of long-term expectations during the Covid-19 crisis suggests that the aggressive monetary policy may have contributed to improving economic agents' beliefs about the commitment of monetary authorities to inflation stability. This may also help long-term expectations gradually to approach the inflation target.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.115-143
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• 2023

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status.

• 경제분석
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.1-53
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• 2019

본 연구는 가계 일부가 부채 누적으로 신용시장에서 일정 한도 이상으로는 차입이 어려워 기간간 소비의 평활화(smoothing)에 제약을 받는 상황이 통화정책에 미치는 영향을 금융시장의 불완전성(incomplete financial markets)이 내재된 2주체 소규모 새케인지언 구조모형(Two Agents New Keynesian Model)을 통해 분석하고 있다. 생산비용 상승이라는 경제상황 변화가 있을 때 신용시장에서 차입한도제약을 받는 차입가계와 제약을 받지 않는 저축가계가 소비 및 노동공급에 대해 보이는 비대칭적 반응은 결국 두 가계간 통화정책 전달경로의 확장으로 이어진다. 물가갭과 생산갭을 동시에 고려하여 정책금리를 결정하는 신축적 물가목표 정책의 사회후생 수준은 차입가계 비중은 물론 모든 경제상황을 종합적으로 고려하여 정책금리를 결정하는 Ramsey 유형의 최적정책과는 비슷하고 순순하게 물가목표 달성만을 추구하는 엄격한 물가목표 정책의 사회후생 수준보다는 높았다. 이는 가계 일부가 차입한도제약을 받는 상황에서도 신축적 물가목표 정책이 여전히 유효함을 시사한다. 또한 생산비용 상승에 대하여 신축적 물가목표 정책과 최적정책 하에서 소비와 노동공급은 엄격한 물가목표 정책보다는 완만히 조정되는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.153-166
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• 2022

The study estimates the Structured VAR and the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Vietnamese economy based on the new Keynesian model for small and open economies, with the output gap, inflation, policy interest rate, the Vietnamese exchange rate, and the inflation and interest rate in the United States. The paper aims to clarify the impulse response of the macro variables through their shocks. It offers to model the SVAR and DSGE processes, as well as describe why and how interest rate policy is important in the impulse response of macro variables like the output gap and inflation process. The study supports the central role of monetary policy by giving empirical evidence for the new Keynesian theory, according to which an interest rate shock causes the output gap to widen and inflation to decrease. Finally, the application of the DSGE model is becoming more and more popular in the State Bank of Viet Nam to improve its policy planning, analyzing, and forecasting policy towards sustainable and stable growth.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.115-126
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• 2021

중앙은행은 통화정책을 운용하면서 통화정책 방향에 관한 보고서를 통해 시장과 소통하고 있다. 최근의 Covid-19 팬데믹은 세계적인 경제의 급격한 위축을 초래하였다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 시와 비교해 보더라도 불확실성이 적지 않은 상황이다. 그 파급효과가 전 세계적으로 확산되면서 경기침체의 장기화에 관한 우려도 증폭되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 미 연준과 한국은행의 통화정책을 담고 있는 통화정책방향 결정문과 의결문의 특징을 분석하고 세계적인 위기에 어떠한 영향을 받았는지 살펴보았다. 분석을 위해 1999년 10월부터 2020년 9월까지 공표된 양 국가의 통화정책방향 보고서 텍스트 자료를 수집하였으며 워드 클라우드 및 워드 임베딩 등을 이용하여 의미상 특징을 살펴보았다. 조각별 회귀나무 모형을 통해 양국 문서의 비유사성 추이도 분석해 보았다. 분석 결과 한국은행과 미 연준 모두 시장과의 투명하고 효과적인 소통을 위해 명확한 의미를 지닌 단어로 정제된 문서 자료를 작성하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 급격한 글로벌 경제환경의 변화가 통화정책에 영향을 미치면서 문서 간 의미상 동조화가 이루진 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국의류산업학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.280-290
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• 2023

As consumers are increasingly shopping online for fashion products, their return behavior is also increasing. Regarding the factors affecting return behavior, this study explores the effect of the purchasing orientation considering returns that are derived from bracketing purchase behavior, monetary lenient return policies, and non-monetary lenient return policies. Additionally, this study examines the effect of monetary/non-monetary lenient return policies on return behavior, mediated by the purchasing orientation considering returns. This study was conducted through an online survey and 238 data were collected and used for analysis. Two research models were designed for each independent variable of monetary lenient return policies, and non-monetary lenient return policies, and the path of the research model was analyzed using Process Macro 4.0. The study found that the sub-dimensions of return policy - monetary or non-monetary return policies - had different effects on return behavior through purchasing orientation considering returns. Monetary lenient return policies had a positive direct effect on return behavior, and purchasing orientation considering returns mediated the effect of the monetary lenient return policies on return behavior. However, the non-monetary lenient return policies only positively and significantly directly affected return behavior. The findings of this study contribute to understanding consumers' purchasing orientation considering returns. Furthermore, from the effect of the return policy on return behavior, the results are valuable as they can help fashion marketers establish a return strategy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.337-370
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• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.1-30
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• 2018

Ongoing demographic changes have brought about a substantial shift in the size and age composition of the population, which are having a significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings-particularly regarding inflation-we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.