• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2005년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.537-557
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• 2005

The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.135-149
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• 2022

Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.13-48
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• 2019

Purpose - This study is to analyze the monetary indicators and the key macroeconomic indicators and to assess the effectiveness of state regulation on its basis. The analysis of monetary aggregates of Russian Federation, CIS, the countries of leading countries of North-East Asia at the present stage of development. Research design and methodology - The volume of data on Russia was analyzed from the 1995 to the 2018. The data from the 1950 to the 2019 were estimated on China. The data from the 1980 to the 2018 were estimated on Japan. On South Korea - since the 1960 to the 2018. On Republic of Belarus - since the 2003 to the 2018. On Tajikistan - from the 2008 to 2017. On Kazakhstan - from the 1994 to the 2018. On Kyrgyzstan - from the 2002 to the 2018. On Armenia - from the 2003 to the 2018. Results - Hypothesis 1: In Russian Federation, the monetary stock has a stable tendency to grow. The volume of money stock of Russia and the analyzed countries is much determined by external debt, GDP, the export, the import, and the international reserves. Hypothesis 2: The growth of money supply does not always give a positive effect in the development of the country, as well as a significant increase in the amount of money stock does not always lead to negative consequences. The monetary stock should be commensurate with the macroeconomic indicators of the state. Conclusions - The growth of the monetary stock does not always give a positive effect in the development of the country, as well as a significant increase in the amount of monetary stock not always lead to negative consequences.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.1-31
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• 2018

Purpose - This study is to analyze indicators characterizing the monetary turnover and its determining factors. Also this paper looked at the evolution of monetary aggregates of the Russian Federation, Australian, Sweden, Denmark, countries of CIS at the present stage of development and in the historical context. Research design, data, and methodology - The scale of research on Russia: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2011 by 2016. In the historical context of the estimated data in the 1900-2011. On Belarus - the 2007-2017, on Tajikistan - the 2000 - 2017, on Kazakhstan - the 2000-2017, on Kyrgyzstan - the 2000-2017, on Australian - the 1959-2017, on Sweden - the 2009-2017, on Denmark - the 1999-2017. Results - Hypothesis 1. In Russian Federation the monetary stock has the steady tendency to growth. The dynamics of money supply in Russia is largely determined by historical events. Hypothesis 2. The dynamics of money supply the leading countries-partners has the tendency to grow. The monetary amount of countries-partners are analyzed is largely determined by external debt, GDP, the exports, the imports, the international reserves. Conclusions - The dynamics of monetary stock of Russia is determined by the historical events in many respects. The Russian Federation maintains a steady and the liquid economic position in the case of considerable amount of monetary stock and the high degree of its surplus. In most of the countries studied, the monetary supply has a significant volume exceeding the needs of the economy. If the distribution of monetary mass is adequate and there is a vertical of financial control, this will not have a negative impact on the country's economic stability and the development.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.5-9
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.239-251
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• 2005

본 연구는 거시경제정책이 주식시장에 미치는 영향을 외환위기 전후와 주식시장 개방 전후의 시기를 비교하여 분석하였다. 이를 위해 SUR(Seemingly Unrelated Regression) 계량분석기법을 이용, 1982년 1월부터 2004년 12월까지의 월별 자료를 분석하였다. 분석결과 다음과 같은 증거들을 발견하였다. 첫째, 전체 분석기간 동안 재정정책에 대한 정보들은 주식시장에 잘 반영되었으나 통화정책들은 그렇지 못하다는 것을 발견하였다. 둘째, 거시경제정책이 주식시장에 영향을 미치는 과정에서 외환위기가 변수로 작용한 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로는, 외환위기 이전과 비교하여 재정정책의 충격들은 외환위기 이후 주식시장의 가격형성에 잘 반영되고 있으나 통화정책의 충격들이 주식시장에 미치는 영향은 즉각적이지 않고 시간이 걸리는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 주식시장 개방 이전에는 과거의 거시경제정보들이 주식시장의 가격형성에 영향을 주었으나 이러한 현상을 개방 이후에는 발견할 수 없었다. 이와 같은 결과는 주식시장 개방이 시장의 참가자들에게 적극적인 거시경제정보의 분석과 활용을 유도하는 방향으로 작용하였다는 것을 시사한다.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.31-42
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• 2022

Purpose - The main research goals by macroeconomic analysis is to assess the effectiveness of state regulation, the sustainability of development, and the financial stability of the state. Research design, Data, and methodology - The research were analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. The volume of data from the 1995 to the 2021 was analyzed by Russian Federation. The scale of research on Belarus: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2015 by 2021, on Kazakhstan - from the 19941, on Kyrgyzstan - from the 2002, on Tajikistan - from the 2008, on Armenia - from the 2021, on Japan - since the 1970, on China - since the 1950, on South Korea - since the 1953. Result - The methods of multivariate statistics was demonstrated exact of result in forecasting of macroeconomic indicators. The most of tendency with the accurate results of are described using the second-degree polynomials. In the most research of country there are the macroeconomic proportion are broken. Conclusion - In the countries studied, the monetary aggregates have a significant growth rate. The shares with a substantial monetary stock and the speed of its growth are divided in the two groups: having placements in the real sectors of the economy and not having received the same result of development from the growth of the monetary stock.

• 산학경영연구
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• 제3권
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• pp.211-225
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• 1990

• 분석과 대안
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.143-162
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• 2018

This paper focuses on the policy framework about "Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE)" of Japan, and analyzes reasons why the policy goal was not reached. The QQE was introduced by the Bank of Japan in 2013 with the purpose of meeting the price stability target of 2% and getting out of deflation that prevents sustained price decline. However, despite the implementation of the bold monetary easing policy unprecedented in the world, the policy goal was not achieved as of June 2018. As a result of analyzing the causes, the following three structural factors were confirmed. 1) The rise in prices by QQE was limited because Japan's consumer price is strongly depending on import price. 2) The effect is high degree of uncertainty and limited because theoretical framework of reflationist which adopted QQE depends on "expectation formation" by "self-fulfilling expectation" and "multiple equilibria". 3) It was confirmed that the expansion of the monetary base did not lead to money stock due to the existence of Japanese liquidity trap, long-term low interest rate policy.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권8호
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• pp.420-424
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• 2022

The Arab Automotive Company was the first corporation in Saudi Arabia and was founded in 1928. Since then, the number of Saudi corporations had increased. In 1985, Tadawul (The Saudi Stock Exchange ) was instituted under the supervision of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) and the base value of the index was 1000. This decision came as a response to accelerated growth in the number of Saudi corporations which had increased during the 1970s as the Saudi's economy developed.