• Title/Summary/Keyword: Models, Statistical

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Water Level Prediction on the Golok River Utilizing Machine Learning Technique to Evaluate Flood Situations

  • Pheeranat Dornpunya;Watanasak Supaking;Hanisah Musor;Oom Thaisawasdi;Wasukree Sae-tia;Theethut Khwankeerati;Watcharaporn Soyjumpa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.31-31
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    • 2023
  • During December 2022, the northeast monsoon, which dominates the south and the Gulf of Thailand, had significant rainfall that impacted the lower southern region, causing flash floods, landslides, blustery winds, and the river exceeding its bank. The Golok River, located in Narathiwat, divides the border between Thailand and Malaysia was also affected by rainfall. In flood management, instruments for measuring precipitation and water level have become important for assessing and forecasting the trend of situations and areas of risk. However, such regions are international borders, so the installed measuring telemetry system cannot measure the rainfall and water level of the entire area. This study aims to predict 72 hours of water level and evaluate the situation as information to support the government in making water management decisions, publicizing them to relevant agencies, and warning citizens during crisis events. This research is applied to machine learning (ML) for water level prediction of the Golok River, Lan Tu Bridge area, Sungai Golok Subdistrict, Su-ngai Golok District, Narathiwat Province, which is one of the major monitored rivers. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, a tree-based ensemble machine learning algorithm, was exploited to predict hourly water levels through the R programming language. Model training and testing were carried out utilizing observed hourly rainfall from the STH010 station and hourly water level data from the X.119A station between 2020 and 2022 as main prediction inputs. Furthermore, this model applies hourly spatial rainfall forecasting data from Weather Research and Forecasting and Regional Ocean Model System models (WRF-ROMs) provided by Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) as input, allowing the model to predict the hourly water level in the Golok River. The evaluation of the predicted performances using the statistical performance metrics, delivering an R-square of 0.96 can validate the results as robust forecasting outcomes. The result shows that the predicted water level at the X.119A telemetry station (Golok River) is in a steady decline, which relates to the input data of predicted 72-hour rainfall from WRF-ROMs having decreased. In short, the relationship between input and result can be used to evaluate flood situations. Here, the data is contributed to the Operational support to the Special Water Resources Management Operation Center in Southern Thailand for flood preparedness and response to make intelligent decisions on water management during crisis occurrences, as well as to be prepared and prevent loss and harm to citizens.

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TeGCN:Transformer-embedded Graph Neural Network for Thin-filer default prediction (TeGCN:씬파일러 신용평가를 위한 트랜스포머 임베딩 기반 그래프 신경망 구조 개발)

  • Seongsu Kim;Junho Bae;Juhyeon Lee;Heejoo Jung;Hee-Woong Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.419-437
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    • 2023
  • As the number of thin filers in Korea surpasses 12 million, there is a growing interest in enhancing the accuracy of assessing their credit default risk to generate additional revenue. Specifically, researchers are actively pursuing the development of default prediction models using machine learning and deep learning algorithms, in contrast to traditional statistical default prediction methods, which struggle to capture nonlinearity. Among these efforts, Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture is noteworthy for predicting default in situations with limited data on thin filers. This is due to their ability to incorporate network information between borrowers alongside conventional credit-related data. However, prior research employing graph neural networks has faced limitations in effectively handling diverse categorical variables present in credit information. In this study, we introduce the Transformer embedded Graph Convolutional Network (TeGCN), which aims to address these limitations and enable effective default prediction for thin filers. TeGCN combines the TabTransformer, capable of extracting contextual information from categorical variables, with the Graph Convolutional Network, which captures network information between borrowers. Our TeGCN model surpasses the baseline model's performance across both the general borrower dataset and the thin filer dataset. Specially, our model performs outstanding results in thin filer default prediction. This study achieves high default prediction accuracy by a model structure tailored to characteristics of credit information containing numerous categorical variables, especially in the context of thin filers with limited data. Our study can contribute to resolving the financial exclusion issues faced by thin filers and facilitate additional revenue within the financial industry.

A Study on the Factors Affecting Urinary Paraben Concentration: An Analysis of the Third Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS) Data (뇨중 파라벤 농도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구: 제3기 국민환경보건기초조사 자료 분석)

  • Jae-Min Kim;Kyoung-Mu Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2023
  • Background: Paraben is a widely used substance with a preservative effect found in various materials such as food, medicine, personal care products, and cosmetics. Objectives: This study was conducted to identify the level of urinary paraben concentrations (i.e., methyl-, ethyl-, and propyl-) among Korean adults and to explore the factors related with the exposure levels. Methods: We analyzed the third period (2015~2017) of the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS). R statistical software (version 4.1.1) was used to estimate representative values for the whole population with weight variables to reflect sampling design. Whether urinary concentrations tended to increase as the level of paraben exposure-related characteristics increased was tested and Ptrend was calculated using general linear models. Results: Urinary concentrations of all three parabens (i.e., methyl-, ethyl- and propyl-) were higher in women than in men (Ptrend<0.0001, 0.008, and <0.0001), and the values of methylparaben and propylparaben tended to increase as the age of subjects increased (Ptrend<0.0001, and <0.0001). Urinary concentrations of methylparaben and propylparaben were associated with intensity of exercise (Ptrend<0.001, and 0.004), and that of propylparaben was higher in non-smokers (Ptrend=0.01). In terms of paraben exposure-related variables, urinary concentrations of parabens (i.e., methyl-, ethyl- and propyl-) increased as the daily average frequency of teeth-brushing (Ptrend<0.0001, 0.03 and 0.0001), the frequency of use of hair products (Ptrend=0.005, 0.05 and 0.04), the frequency of use of makeup products (Ptrend<0.001, 0.001 and <0.001), and the frequency of use of antibacterial products (Ptrend=0.005, 0.02 and 0.02) increased. Conclusions: In our study, urinary concentrations of all three parabens are associated with gender, teethbrushing, hair products, make-up products, and antibacterial products. Methyl- and proyl-parabens were associated with age and intensity of exercise, and propyl-paraben was associated with smoking.

Convergence Research on Infection Awareness of Uniforms, Recognition of Laundry Rules, and Intention to Prevent Infectious Diseases: Focusing on Individualism, Collectivism, and Self-esteem (유니폼의 감염인식, 세탁 규정 인식, 감염병 예방 의도에 관한 융합연구: 개인주의, 집단주의, 자아존중감 중심으로)

  • Eun-Gyo Son;Il-Soon Park
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted through Google online survey from November 24 to November 26, 2021 targeting 276 students from the department of dental hygiene at a university in Gangwon-do. The purpose of this study was to investigate the infection awareness of uniforms, recognition of washing rules, and the intention to prevent infectious diseases through individualism and collectivist self-esteem. Statistical methods were analyzed using SPSS Statistics 24.0 and AMOS 21.0 as follows. For analysis, frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis, structural equation, and ANOVA analysis were performed. As a result, it was confirmed that the models of uniform infection awareness, uniform washing rule recognition(p<.001), self-esteem, individualism, and collectivist intention to prevent infectious diseases were suitable(p<.001). Collectivism was found to affect the perception of uniform infection, the recognition of uniform washing rules, and the intention to prevent infectious diseases, confirming that self-esteem and collectivism had an effect on the change of perception for infection prevention. In the future, it will be possible to use the uniform washing method considering collectivism in infection control education of the dental hygiene.

Comparison of Machine Learning Models to Predict the Occurrence of Ground Subsidence According to the Characteristics of Sewer (하수관로 특성에 따른 지반함몰 발생 예측을 위한 기계학습 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Sungyeol;Kim, Jinyoung;Kang, Jaemo;Baek, Wonjin
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2022
  • Recently, ground subsidence has been continuously occurring in downtown areas, threatening the safety of citizens. Various underground facilities such as water and sewage pipelines and communication pipelines are buried under the road. It is reported that the cause of ground subsidence is the deterioration of various facilities and the reckless development of the underground. In particular, it is known that the biggest cause of ground subsidence is the aging of sewage pipelines. As an existing study related to this, several representative factors of sewage pipelines were selected and a study to predict the risk of ground subsidence through statistical analysis has been conducted. In this study, a data SET was constructed using the characteristics of OO city's sewage pipe characteristics and ground subsidence data, The data set constructed from the characteristics of the sewage pipe of OO city and the location of the ground subsidence was used. The goal of this study was to present a classification model for the occurrence of ground subsidence according to the characteristics of sewage pipes through machine learning. In addition, the importance of each sewage pipe characteristic affecting the ground subsidence was calculated.

Parameter Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis of the NWS-PC Rainfall-Runoff Model Coupled with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inference Scheme (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo 기법을 통한 NWS-PC 강우-유출 모형 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il;Kim, Byung-Sik;Yoon, Seok-Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4B
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2008
  • It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established. Therefore, uncertainty analysis are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an unexpected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

Development of Hazard-Level Forecasting Model using Combined Method of Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network at Signalized Intersections (유전자 알고리즘과 신경망 이론의 결합에 의한 신호교차로 위험도 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Joong-Hyo;Shin, Jae-Man;Park, Je-Jin;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2010
  • In 2010, the number of registered vehicles reached almost at 17.48 millions in Korea. This dramatic increase of vehicles influenced to increase the number of traffic accidents which is one of the serious social problems and also to soar the personal and economic losses in Korea. Through this research, an enhanced intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network will be developed in order to obtain the important data for developing the countermeasures of traffic accidents and eventually to reduce the traffic accidents in Korea. Firstly, this research has investigated the influencing factors of road geometric features on the traffic volume of each approaching for the intersections where traffic accidents and congestions frequently take place and, a linear regression model of traffic accidents and traffic conflicts were developed by examining the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic conflicts through the statistical significance tests. Secondly, this research also developed an intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network through applying the intersection traffic volume, the road geometric features and the specific variables of traffic conflicts. Lastly, this research found out that the developed model is better than the existed forecasting models in terms of the reliability and accuracy by comparing the actual number of traffic accidents and the predicted number of accidents from the developed model. In conclusion, it is expect that the cost/effectiveness of any traffic safety improvement projects can be maximized if this developed intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network use practically at field in the future.

Informative Role of Marketing Activity in Financial Market: Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Dispersion

  • Oh, Yun Kyung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2013
  • As advertising and promotions are categorized as operating expenses, managers tend to reduce marketing budget to improve their short term profitability. Gauging the value and accountability of marketing spending is therefore considered as a major research priority in marketing. To respond this call, recent studies have documented that financial market reacts positively to a firm's marketing activity or marketing related outcomes such as brand equity and customer satisfaction. However, prior studies focus on the relation of marketing variable and financial market variables. This study suggests a channel about how marketing activity increases firm valuation. Specifically, we propose that a firm's marketing activity increases the level of the firm's product market information and thereby the dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts decreases. With less uncertainty about the firm's future prospect, the firm's managers and shareholders have less information asymmetry, which reduces the firm's cost of capital and thereby increases the valuation of the firm. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine how informational benefits can mediate the effect of marketing activity on firm value. To test whether marketing activity contributes to increase in firm value by mitigating information asymmetry, this study employs a longitudinal data which contains 12,824 firm-year observations with 2,337 distinct firms from 1981 to 2006. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q and one-year-ahead buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). Following prior literature, dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts is used as a proxy for the information gap between management and shareholders. For model specification, to identify mediating effect, the three-step regression approach is adopted. All models are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to test the statistical significance of the mediating effect. The analysis shows that marketing intensity has a significant negative relationship with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After including the mediator variable about analyst dispersion, the effect of marketing intensity on firm value drops from 1.199 (p < .01) to 1.130 (p < .01) in Tobin's Q model and the same effect drops from .192 (p < .01) to .188 (p < .01) in BHAR model. The results suggest that analysts' forecast dispersion partially accounts for the positive effect of marketing on firm valuation. Additionally, the same analysis was conducted with an alternative dependent variable (forecast accuracy) and a marketing metric (advertising intensity). The analysis supports the robustness of the main results. In sum, the results provide empirical evidence that marketing activity can increase shareholder value by mitigating problem of information asymmetry in the capital market. The findings have important implications for managers. First, managers should be cognizant of the role of marketing activity in providing information to the financial market as well as to the consumer market. Thus, managers should take into account investors' reaction when they design marketing communication messages for reducing the cost of capital. Second, this study shows a channel on how marketing creates shareholder value and highlights the accountability of marketing. In addition to the direct impact of marketing on firm value, an indirect channel by reducing information asymmetry should be considered. Potentially, marketing managers can justify their spending from the perspective of increasing long-term shareholder value.

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Effects of zinc oxide and calcium-doped zinc oxide nanocrystals on cytotoxicity and reactive oxygen species production in different cell culture models

  • Gabriela Leite de Souza ;Camilla Christian Gomes Moura ;Anielle Christine Almeida Silva ;Juliane Zacour Marinho;Thaynara Rodrigues Silva ;Noelio Oliveira Dantas;Jessica Fernanda Sena Bonvicini ;Ana Paula Turrioni
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.54.1-54.16
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: This study aimed to synthesize nanocrystals (NCs) of zinc oxide (ZnO) and calcium ion (Ca2+)-doped ZnO with different percentages of calcium oxide (CaO), to evaluate cytotoxicity and to assess the effects of the most promising NCs on cytotoxicity depending on lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation. Materials and Methods: Nanomaterials were synthesized (ZnO and ZnO:xCa, x = 0.7; 1.0; 5.0; 9.0) and characterized using X-ray diffractometry, scanning electron microscopy, and methylene blue degradation. SAOS-2 and RAW 264.7 were treated with NCs, and evaluated for viability using the MTT assay. NCs with lower cytotoxicity were maintained in contact with LPS-stimulated (+LPS) and nonstimulated (-LPS) human dental pulp cells (hDPCs). Cell viability, nitric oxide (NO), and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production were evaluated. Cells kept in culture medium or LPS served as negative and positive controls, respectively. One-way analysis of variance and the Dunnett test (α = 0.05) were used for statistical testing. Results: ZnO:0.7Ca and ZnO:1.0Ca at 10 ㎍/mL were not cytotoxic to SAOS-2 and RAW 264.7. +LPS and -LPS hDPCs treated with ZnO, ZnO:0.7Ca, and ZnO:1.0Ca presented similar NO production to negative control (p > 0.05) and lower production compared to positive control (p < 0.05). All NCs showed reduced ROS production compared with the positive control group both in +LPS and -LPS cells (p < 0.05). Conclusions: NCs were successfully synthesized. ZnO, ZnO:0.7Ca and ZnO:1.0Ca presented the highest percentages of cell viability, decreased ROS and NO production in +LPS cells, and maintenance of NO production at basal levels.

A Groundwater Potential Map for the Nakdonggang River Basin (낙동강권역의 지하수 산출 유망도 평가)

  • Soonyoung Yu;Jaehoon Jung;Jize Piao;Hee Sun Moon;Heejun Suk;Yongcheol Kim;Dong-Chan Koh;Kyung-Seok Ko;Hyoung-Chan Kim;Sang-Ho Moon;Jehyun Shin;Byoung Ohan Shim;Hanna Choi;Kyoochul Ha
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.71-89
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    • 2023
  • A groundwater potential map (GPM) was built for the Nakdonggang River Basin based on ten variables, including hydrogeologic unit, fault-line density, depth to groundwater, distance to surface water, lineament density, slope, stream drainage density, soil drainage, land cover, and annual rainfall. To integrate the thematic layers for GPM, the criteria were first weighted using the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and then overlaid using the Technique for Ordering Preferences by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model. Finally, the groundwater potential was categorized into five classes (very high (VH), high (H), moderate (M), low (L), very low (VL)) and verified by examining the specific capacity of individual wells on each class. The wells in the area categorized as VH showed the highest median specific capacity (5.2 m3/day/m), while the wells with specific capacity < 1.39 m3/day/m were distributed in the areas categorized as L or VL. The accuracy of GPM generated in the work looked acceptable, although the specific capacity data were not enough to verify GPM in the studied large watershed. To create GPMs for the determination of high-yield well locations, the resolution and reliability of thematic maps should be improved. Criterion values for groundwater potential should be established when machine learning or statistical models are used in the GPM evaluation process.