• 제목/요약/키워드: Modeling and Prediction

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방사능 누출 사례일의 국내.외 라그랑지안 입자확산 모델링 결과 비교 (Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Modeling Intercomparison : Internal Versus Foreign Modeling Results on the Nuclear Spill Event)

  • 김철희;송창근
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.249-261
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    • 2003
  • A three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric dispersion modeling system consisting of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) and the meteorological mesoscale model (MM5) was employed to simulate the transport and dispersion of non-reactive pollutant during the nuclear spill event occurred from Sep. 31 to Oct. 3, 1999 in Tokaimura city, Japan. For the comparative analysis of numerical experiment, two more sets of foreign mesoscale modeling system; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and DWD (Deutscher Wetter Dienst) were also applied to address the applicability of air pollution dispersion predictions. We noticed that the simulated results of horizontal wind direction and wind velocity from three meteorological modeling showed remarkably different spatial variations, mainly due to the different horizontal resolutions. How-ever, the dispersion process by LPDM was well characterized by meteorological wind fields, and the time-dependent dilution factors ($\chi$/Q) were found to be qualitatively simulated in accordance with each mesocale meteorogical wind field, suggesting that LPDM has the potential for the use of the real time control at optimization of the urban air pollution provided detailed meteorological wind fields. This paper mainly pertains to the mesoscale modeling approaches, but the results imply that the resolution of meteorological model and the implementation of the relevant scale of air quality model lead to better prediction capabilities in local or urban scale air pollution modeling.

미세먼지 확산 모델링을 이용한 대기질 예측 시스템에 대한 연구 (A Study on Fine Dust Modeling for Air Quality Prediction)

  • 유지현
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.1136-1140
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    • 2020
  • 미세먼지로 인한 대기오염이 심각해지면서 미세먼지의 확산과 대기질의 예측에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 미세먼지의 원인은 매우 다양한데, 일부 미세먼지는 산불, 황사 등을 통해 자연적으로 발생하기도 하지만 대부분은 석유, 석탄과 같은 화석연료를 태우거나 자동차 매연가스에서 나오는 대기오염물질에서 유발되는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 논문에서는 미국 EPA에서 추천하는 CALPUFF 모델을 사용하고, CALPUFF에서 필요한 기상 요소인 3차원 바람장을 생성하는 기상 전처리 프로그램으로 CALMET 모델을 통해 바람장을 생성하여 CALPUFF 확산 모델링을 수행한다. 이를 통해 복잡한 지형을 반영한 미세먼지 확산모델링과 대기질 예측 시스템의 구조를 제안한다.

Development of a Weather Prediction Device Using Transformer Models and IoT Techniques

  • Iyapo Kamoru Olarewaju;Kyung Ki Kim
    • 센서학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.164-168
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    • 2023
  • Accurate and reliable weather forecasts for temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation using advanced transformer models and IoT are essential in various fields related to global climate change. We propose a novel weather prediction device that integrates state-of-the-art transformer models and IoT techniques to improve prediction accuracy and real-time processing. The proposed system demonstrated high reliability and performance, offering valuable insights for industries and sectors that rely on accurate weather information, including agriculture, transportation, and emergency response planning. The integration of transformer models with the IoT signifies a substantial advancement in weather and climate modeling.

한국인 남성 운전자의 운전 자세에서 발생하는 몸통 처짐 현상에 관한 예측 모델 연구 (Prediction of Postural Sagging Observed During Driving in Korean Male Drivers)

  • 오영택;정의승;박성준;정성욱
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2008
  • In the vehicle design, the research on driving posture has stood out as one of the important issues. Recently, the research on 3D human modeling focused on more exact implementation of real driving posture. However, prediction of driving posture through the 3D human modeling fail to reflect on the model the phenomenon called sagging, which refers to the retraction or shrinking of the torso while driving. 30 male subjects participated in the experiment where total subjects were divided into four groups according to height percentile(under 50%ile, 51%ile to 75%ile, 76%ile to 95%ile, over 95%ile). The independent variables were seat back angle(4 levels) and seat pan angle(2 levels). The dependent variable was capacity or the degree of retraction of the torso. First this study measured the sagging capacity by using a paired T-test between erect and retracted posture. Secondly it was tried to find out significant anthropometric variables that were statistically correlated by the analysis of correlation. Finally, a prediction model was derived which explains the capacity of sagging.

넙스(NURBS) 곡선 모델링을 이용한 발사체 음향하중 예측에 대한 연구 (A Study on Prediction of Acoustic Loads of Launch Vehicle Using NURBS Curve Modeling)

  • 박서룡;김홍일;이수갑
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.106-113
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    • 2018
  • 발사체 발사 시 제트화염에 의해 발생하는 강력한 음향파는 음향하중의 형태로 비행체를 가진한다. 대표적인 경험적 음향하중 예측기법인 DSM-II(Distributed Source Method-II)는 제트화염 축을 따라 소음원을 배치하는 방법으로 계산비용 및 정확성 측면에서 장점을 갖는다. 하지만 소음원 배치 방법의 한계로 인해 다양한 발사대 환경을 정확하게 반영하기에는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 넙스(Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline, NURBS) 곡선 모델링을 경험적 예측기법에 도입하여 자유롭게 소음원을 배치할 수 있는 음향하중 예측기법에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 넙스 기법이 새롭게 도입된 해석기법의 검증을 위하여 Epsilon 로켓의 곡선형 저소음 발사대 형상에 대한 음향하중 예측을 수행하였고 해석 결과를 기존의 예측방법 및 실험 결과와 비교하였다.

Development and Estimation of a Burden Distribution Index for Monitoring a Blast Furnace Condition

  • Chu, Young-Hwan;Choi, Tai-Hwa;Han, Chong-Hun
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1830-1835
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    • 2003
  • A novel index representing burden distribution form in the blast furnace is developed and index estimation model is built with an empirical modeling method to monitor inner condition of the furnace without expensive sensors. To find the best combination of index and modeling method, two candidates for the index and four modeling methods have been examined. Results have shown that 3-D index have more resolution in describing the distribution form than 1-D index and ANN model produces smallest RMSE due to nonlinearity between the indices and charging mode. Although ANN has shown the best prediction accuracy in this study, PLS can be a good alternative due to its advantages in generalization capability, consistency, simplicity and training time. The second best result of PLS in the prediction results supports this fact.

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실규모 하수처리공정에서 동력학적 동특성에 기반한 인공지능 모델링 및 예측기법 (Artificial Neural Network Modeling and Prediction Based on Hydraulic Characteristics in a Full-scale Wastewater Treatment Plant)

  • 김민한;유창규
    • 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.555-561
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    • 2009
  • The established mathematical modeling methods have limitation to know the hydraulic characteristics at the wastewater treatment plant which are complex and nonlinear systems. So, an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on hydraulic characteristics is applied for modeling wastewater quality of a full-scale wastewater treatment plant using DNR (Daewoo nutrient removal) process. ANN was trained using data which are influents (TSS, BOD, COD, TN, TP) and effluents (COD, TN, TP) components in a year, and predicted the effluent results based on the training. To raise the efficiency of prediction, inputs of ANN are added the influent and effluent information that are in yesterday and the day before yesterday. The results of training data tend to have high accuracy between real value and predicted value, but test data tend to have lower accuracy. However, the more hydraulic characteristics are considered, the results become more accuracy.

Image-based rainfall prediction from a novel deep learning method

  • Byun, Jongyun;Kim, Jinwon;Jun, Changhyun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.183-183
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    • 2021
  • Deep learning methods and their application have become an essential part of prediction and modeling in water-related research areas, including hydrological processes, climate change, etc. It is known that application of deep learning leads to high availability of data sources in hydrology, which shows its usefulness in analysis of precipitation, runoff, groundwater level, evapotranspiration, and so on. However, there is still a limitation on microclimate analysis and prediction with deep learning methods because of deficiency of gauge-based data and shortcomings of existing technologies. In this study, a real-time rainfall prediction model was developed from a sky image data set with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). These daily image data were collected at Chung-Ang University and Korea University. For high accuracy of the proposed model, it considers data classification, image processing, ratio adjustment of no-rain data. Rainfall prediction data were compared with minutely rainfall data at rain gauge stations close to image sensors. It indicates that the proposed model could offer an interpolation of current rainfall observation system and have large potential to fill an observation gap. Information from small-scaled areas leads to advance in accurate weather forecasting and hydrological modeling at a micro scale.

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Crack growth prediction and cohesive zone modeling of single crystal aluminum-a molecular dynamics study

  • Sutrakar, Vijay Kumar;Subramanya, N.;Mahapatra, D. Roy
    • Advances in nano research
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.143-168
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    • 2015
  • Initiation of crack and its growth simulation requires accurate model of traction - separation law. Accurate modeling of traction-separation law remains always a great challenge. Atomistic simulations based prediction has great potential in arriving at accurate traction-separation law. The present paper is aimed at establishing a method to address the above problem. A method for traction-separation law prediction via utilizing atomistic simulations data has been proposed. In this direction, firstly, a simpler approach of common neighbor analysis (CNA) for the prediction of crack growth has been proposed and results have been compared with previously used approach of threshold potential energy. Next, a scheme for prediction of crack speed has been demonstrated based on the stable crack growth criteria. Also, an algorithm has been proposed that utilizes a variable relaxation time period for the computation of crack growth, accurate stress behavior, and traction-separation atomistic law. An understanding has been established for the generation of smoother traction-separation law (including the effect of free surface) from a huge amount of raw atomistic data. A new curve fit has also been proposed for predicting traction-separation data generated from the molecular dynamics simulations. The proposed traction-separation law has also been compared with the polynomial and exponential model used earlier for the prediction of traction-separation law for the bulk materials.

Prediction of Stand Structure Dynamics for Unthinned Slash Pine Plantations

  • Lee, Young-Jin;Cho, Hyun-Je;Hong, Sung-Cheon
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.435-438
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    • 2000
  • Diameter distributions describe forest stand structure information. Prediction equations for percentiles of diameter distribution and parameter recovery procedures for the Weibull distribution function based on four percentile equations were applied to develop prediction system of even-aged slash pine stand structure development in terms of the number of stems per diameter class changes. Four percentiles of the cumulative diameter distribution were predicted as a function of stand characteristics. The predicted diameter distributions were tested against the observed diameter distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test at the ${\alpha}$=0.05 level. Statistically, no significant differences were detected based on the data from 236 evaluation data sets. This stand level diameter distribution prediction system will be useful in slash pine stand structure modeling and in updating forest inventories for the long-term forest management planning.

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